28/4/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hawkesbury, Hawkesbury Guineas day

A bumper nine race card has been assembled for Hawkesbury this Saturday for their massive stand alone program. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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3 Don’t Doubt Her (Bet Now: $8.00) gets the nod for me. Progressive mare for the Rod Northam team who comes to this Highway off the back of an outstanding win at Scone last time out where she got a mile back in the run but produced a lovely finale to overhaul them late, and she attacked the line. That was 1300m so back to 1100m is the query, but I’m hoping they go quick and she’ll have last say.

1 She Knows (Bet Now: $1.65) surely has to run well here. Hasn’t raced for six weeks since running down the straight at Flemington when running a close up fifth to the above average filly Demerara, who is blacktype class. Back to Highway grade, she has to go close to winning. Break between runs the only concern.

5 Kendalman (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Wayne Wilkes trained gelding who can run well. Resumed over 1000m on his home trac at Taree where he just did a bit too much work in the run from the sticky draw and couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up fifth to Just Snooping. Rare to see the stable travel them but when they do, they should be respected.

1 Stunts (Bet Now: $3.80) on top for me. James Cummings trains this colt, who had good late market support when racing in the Kindergarten at Randwick where he just got a tad too far back and didn’t have the best of luck in the straight when fourth to surprise winner Paquirri. I think with the run under the belt, up to 1300m, he should take some beating.

2 Graff (Bet Now: $2.80) is a Kris Lees trained colt who had trialled well prior to debuting at Rosehill where he got the lovely run behind the speed before getting the splits and finishing his race off quite nicely to score a good debut win against a field which looked to have a bit of depth to it. Looks a nice type and should run well.

3 Orcein (Bet Now: $3.40) is a son of Snitzel that resumes for Chris Waller. He had three runs in the Spring to kick off the prep, ending it with a close up fourth in the BJ McLachlan behind Meryl. Has trialled up really well on a couple of occasions leading up to his return and he gets a bit of headgear changing, so I reckon there is intent to run well. Not a long shot I know, but they’re the only three winning hopes.

I think 2 Stonebrook (Bet Now: $5.50) can bounce back hard here. Really good resumption at Kembla behind Oxford poet before being too bad to be true last time out at Rosehill behind Osborne Bulls. Ordered to trial and did win a trial at Gosford in good style. I think Hippo can send this horse straight to the front and dominate proceedings.

7 In Times Of War (Bet Now: $5.00) a definite threat. Chris Waller trains this mare, who has been very frustrating to follow as a punter, with just two wins from 16 outings. Resumed over 1100m at the Warwick Farm midweeks where she was far from disgraced behind the above average Trekking. More depth here, but tries hard and likes racing on big tracks.

11 Balmain Boy (Bet Now: $23.00) is a bludger I know but I thought there was merit in his first up run at Warwick Farm behind Veladero. never looked likely from where he was but he worked home quite well I thought and that followed an impressive trial behind Redzel. Interesting to see what he can do here. One for exotics.

Have to be with 7 Bezel (Bet Now: $6.50). David Smith has this former Godolphin galloper absolutely flying and he got a well deserved win on the board last time out at Kensington when showing a lovely turn of foot from off the pace to score, beating a field which had a bit of depth to it. Confident he can run well.

1 Up ‘N’ Rolling (Bet Now: $4.00) a threat but with not much confidence. This bloke hasn’t raced for four weeks since racing at Rosehill where he tried hard but was no match for the above average Osborne Bulls, and we know what he did last Saturday. Fresh 1500m interests me. Has the quality to win. Does he have the zip in the legs?

13 My Tagosan (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Rod Northam trained gelding who comes here off the back of a down the track effort in the Country Championship Final behind Victorem where he got back to near last in the run and just couldn’t come on at all. He is racing like a horse who wants further, which he gets here, so interesting to see how he goes.

7 Passage Of Time (Bet Now: $6.00) on top for me. This horse is an absolute bomb when produced on the fresh side and I reckon he’s been given the right grounding to keep his unbeaten first up record in tact. Excellent four run prep last time in, been given a good break and has trialled up really well for his resumption. Happy to be with him.

Very wary of 9 Tango Rain (Bet Now: $3.40), a smart gelding that is first up for Gerald Ryan. He can be a bit hit and miss at times but when he is on, he’s certainly up beating these. Does his best racing when produced fresh and his two trials leading in have been outstanding. Tricky draw but has the speed to overcome it.

3 Le Cordon Bleu (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented son of Snitzel that resumes for the Hawkes team. He is a dynamite fresh horse who is 1/1 at Hawkesbury so he has a few things going for him. Has been given three weeks break since trialling at Rosehill where I thought he went very good in behind Tango Rain. Hard to beat.

1 Ghisoni (Bet Now: $9.50) on top despite the weight. Looked big in condition when resuming in the Sapphire at Randwick a fortnight back and ran accordingly, just running out of condition late in a fast run race when sixth to the in form mare Quilista. Has a very good second up record and should improve big time off that resumption.

9 Invincibella (Bet Now: $5.00) was huge when fourth in the Sapphire, also fresh. Did plenty of work in the run yet still had the hide to flash home for an eye catching fourth to the Weir mare. She too has a very good second up record and a fast run 1300m looks right up her alley. Just doesn’t want to be giving away a huge start.

12 Slow Burn (Bet Now: $15.00) isn’t  well in at the weights but it was hard to miss her run in the Sapphire. Got a mile back off them in the run yet still finished off with real purpose and clocked some of the fastest late splits of the entire meeting. Convinced she is going well and I’ll be chucking her in exotics as well as having something on each way.

11 Plaisir (Bet Now: $8.00) on top for me in a really good edition of the Cup. David Atkins trains this bloke, who comes through the Provincial Championship Final where he looked disinterested for the most part but once RT got him clear air out wide, he finished off with real purpose to run third to Serene Miss. Looking for the mile and he gets it.

2 Ecuador (Bet Now: $3.60) does look the obvious threat, largely due to the map. Sat on speed first up in the Doncaster Prelude and had every right to drop off but he kept finding and in the end he was only bloused late by Cellarman. Has run well here before and he does look as though he can control things in front, which is when he is at his most dangerous.

1 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $23.00) is a grand campaigner that resumes for the Joe Pride team. He’ll likely head down the Winter Cup/Grafton Cup path so I’m sure whatever he does here, he will improve on, but I do respect these stayers that resume, especially at a mile, suggesting they are forward enough to run well, and his trials leading in have been okay.

Hard to get away from 2 Victorem (Bet Now: $2.60). Jenny Graham produced the training performance of the Randwick Carnival when getting this three year old to win the Country Championships Final at Randwick. He was just over eight weeks between runs, first run at 1400m, taking on the older horses, yet he won like a star. His brilliance should get him home.

12 Warranty (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Team Snowden trained filly who was awful first up at Canterbury before being given a freshen up and racing last Wednesday at Kensington where she was backed at odds and the punters got it right as she came with a well timed run under Blake Shinn to win. Now she has her confidence up, she can go on with it.

For wider exotics, I’d include 8 Charlie Chap (Bet Now: $46.00). This bloke comes back to the 1400m after contesting the Carbine Club where he got too far back and couldn’t come on behind Muraaqeb but also keep in mind that the mile isn’t his go. Run prior in the Kembla Qualifier for the Provincial Championship was a ripper and he likes Hawkesbury.

Four legs and healthy lungs, 3 Roman Son (Bet Now: $1.85) will be winning before potentially heading to Scone and then Brisbane. Very progressive stayer for Richard Freedman who didn’t beat much last time out at Rosehill over 1800m but it was the manner in which he got the job done that really impressed me. He’ll eat up 2100m and has upside.

9 Mazaz (Bet Now: $7.50) hasn’t raced for a month since getting the job done over 2400m at Warwick Farm. A Brenton Avdulla gem was the difference between winning and losing, having him up near the speed throughout and getting on his bike at the right time to break the hearts of his rivals. Tick over trial at Randwick was good and back to 2100m no issue.

10 Mornington (Bet Now: $12.00) still looks to be a working progress for the Chris Waller yard. He resumed in the race won by Roman Son at Rosehill and yes, he was beaten a fair way, but he stuck on okay despite doing a bit of work on speed. Been given a little freshen up and he has had a tick over trial to tune up for this.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 3 Roman Son

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Victorem

VALUE: Race Four Number 7 Bezel

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 9, 10, 12

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 11

Leg Three: 2, 3, 8, 12

Leg Four: 3

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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