Moonee Valley racecourse will host an eight race night meeting on Friday night in which we see the running of the Group 1 Moir Stakes which has attracted a fantastic field of sprinters many of which will be trying to break their Group 1 status. The day also includes the Stutt Stakes, Champagne Stakes and the JRA Cup.
The current track condition is a Dead 5 and although there is forecast for some rain i doubt it will be enough to cause a track downgrade so it is likely to be a Dead track come race time.
Race One: Mitchelton Wines Plate 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Churchill Dancer didn’t handle the straight last start so i am happy to put a line through that run and the start before that he was unlucky not to have gone closer and probably should have won the race. Currently $26 in betting which is massive value and should get a good run from the barrier and he has shown to like the distance.
Don’t Back Me: Under The Louvre has won two from three although those two races havent been the best form races. He is noted to be a slow starter and his racing pattern i dont think will suit this race so at the odds i will be risking him.
Big Danger: Clevadude loves Moonee Valley and despite being relatively disappointing at his last two starts he has shown to handle the track which i think quite of these wont. Currently $19 in betting which looks great each way value.
Roughie: Regimental Pride has been unlucky at his past two starts in which i thought he should have finished closer on both occasions. Will start at massive odds of $51 but from barrier 6 he will get an easy run and could cause a big upset.
Race Two: Sportingbet Best Tote Plus Hcp 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Angels Beach put in a good run last start over the 1000m and the step up in distance here will definitely suit her. There doesn’t look to be much speed in the race so from a good barrier she is likely to go forward and track the leaders and be hard to run down in the later stages. Currently $3.60 but i think you will be able to get better value closer to race time.
Don’t Back Me: Vibrant Rouge is likely to settle back in the field in the race and the speed map doesn’t show any speed whatsoever so despite having a perfect first up record i think the tempo will hamper her chances.
Big Danger: Koonoomoo will have to carry the big weight in the race but her first up record is very good along with her record at Moonee Valley and at the distance. She will go to the front and will be very hard to run down.
Roughie: You’re So Good finds an easier race here and she has shown to love Moonee Valley with two wins from two tries. Will be able to sit off the leaders and she will be strong in the later stages of the race. $10 looks good value for a runner who is a big chance.
Race Three: Jeep Don’t Hold Back Hcp 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Sertorius is a very good lightly raced galloper who hit the line really well in the Bobbie Lewis last start over 1200m so the step up in distance will suit. He has a good record over the distance and has had one start over the course and distance for a win. Will get every chance from barrier 7 and he looks very hard to beat at $4.40.
Don’t Back Me: Cosmic Causeway has had four starts at Moonee Valley for just the one win and with the increase in weight from last start i will be happy to risk him at the odds of $5.
Big Danger: Spacecraft put in a massive run last start and was only run down in the final stages by a very good horse. Will need some luck from the barrier but he is likely to go forward and if he can get to the fence without exerting much energy he will be very hard to run down.
Roughie: New York didn’t have any luck last start so you can put a line through that run. Will go back in the race and there looks to be quite good speed so he will have every chance running on late at big odds of $26.
Race Four: Champagne Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Miracles Of Life was disappointing last start but you could see throughout the race she wasn’t comfortable. She drops in weight slightly but the big advantage is that she will be racing against her own sex here, in which she will be very hard to beat. Currently $2.60 in betting, can take a seat behind the leaders from the barrier in what looks to be a hot pace and if she can return to her 2yo form she will be winning this easily.
Don’t Back Me: Thump has found her best for this preparation although looking at this field and the speed in it she wont be able to get an easy time up the front and will weaken late so i will be betting around her here.
Big Danger: I Love It was super impressive on debut and i think they will elect to sit quiter with her on Saturday which will definitely be an advantage with the speed in the race. $14 in betting which i doubt will last.
Roughie: Ruud Awakening led last start before weakening which didn’t suit her i thought. Expecting they will race her quieter here and she showed she was a quality filly in NZ and i think we will see that on Friday night.
Race Five: Essendon Mazda 55 Second Ht 1 955m Form Guide
Back Me: Shafeeq finds a much easier race here and he gets into the weights really well with just 53kg on his back after the claim. He was well beaten last but that was in a quality Group 2 race in which he raced wide throughout with a big weight, so the drop back in class here should see him go very close at very good odds of $7.
Don’t Back Me: Vatican is a very good sprinter although he will have to big of a weight difference and his winning record over the track and distance isn’t very good when you take into account the record of other runners in the race.
Big Danger: Day Procedure has a very good record over the track and distance, has drawn well and gets a 2kg claim with Jackie Beriman aboard. Will need to jump well but if he does he will be very hard to beat.
Roughie: Such Hope will probably be left a bit flat footed in the race and is likely to want a longer trip he has shown to be a quality galloper and if they come from the back he will be right in the finish.
Race Six: City Jeep Bill Stutt Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: San Diego did everything wrong last start but his ability still got him a placing. He has drawn the inside barrier here and will get an easy run throughout and with a bit of luck he will be very hard to beat. He is a very classy horse who has a ton of improvement left in him and i think he is a big Caulfield Guineas hope so he should be winning this at good odds of $7.
Don’t Back Me: Cluster was heavily backed last start in the Golden Rose but what disappointing late in the race. Steps up in distance here which im not sure will suit and he is yet to win from four starts so at the $5 i will be betting around him.
Big Danger: Late Charge got too far back last start which was due to the wide barrier he drew. He will jump from a better barrier on Friday night so he should position just worse than midfield and he showed he has a very good sprint on him and could be the horse who swamps them late.
Roughie: Polanski should have two wins to his name but he was disqualified in one of them. He put in a good run last start in the Danehill stakes when hitting the line well. Won over the distance when disqualified and at $26 looks very good value in a winnable race for him.
Race Seven: Alternate Railway Jra Cup 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: Mourinho i thought was very good at Moonee Valley last start when running fifth. He steps up in distance here which will improve his chances and his record is perfect over the course and distance having won twice from two tries. He will need a bit of luck from barrier 13 although Craig Newitt is perhaps the best Moonee Valley rider in the country so he should be able to give him every chance. Currently $26 in betting which looks great value.
Don’t Back Me: Oasis Bloom’s form says she wasn’t beaten far by Atlantic Jewel but that was simply a track gallop for her. She finds an easier to win race here but ill be risking her at the odds of $4 in a very open race.
Big Danger: Mr Moet will have to carry the top weight in the race but he deserves it being the class runner, he is use to carrying it so it wont be an issue here. He was good in the Underwood Stakes were he tended to hang during the run and should have finished closer. He finds a much easier race on Friday night ane he should be right in the finish.
Roughie: Zabisco hasn’t been fully tested at his last two runs so i am happy to forgive him in those two races. Steps up to a more suited distance on Friday night and i think he will run a big race at big odds of $34.
Race Eight: Programmed Moir Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Epaulette i still think is one of the best sprinters in Australia and he proved that last preparation when winning the Doomben 10,000. He has a good first up record and loves the distance. He will go back in the run and in a race that there looks to be good speed he will be finishing too well late. Happy to be taking the $5 on offer.
Don’t Back Me: Buffering has had fourteen tries to break through with a Group 1 win but he is yet to do so. He has a very good first up record although he has never faced a field of this quality in any of those runs. Will go forward and will be pressured and i think they will be coming wide by the last race so i can’t see him breaking through with a G1 victory on Friday night.
Big Danger: Bel Sprinter has never been beaten first up which he is on Friday night from five tries. He will face a tougher field of runners than he did on those five occasions but based on a record like that you can’t leave him out here.
Roughie: Moment Of Change was flat over the 1000m last start but i am happy to forgive him on that run. Will be much better over the 1200m and at $9 he looks to be the value runner of the winning chances in the race.
Best Bet: Epaulette
Next Best: Miracles Of Life
Best Roughie: Mourinho
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