Eagle Farm takes over the Brisbane Winter Carnival this Saturday with Kingsford Smith Cup Day, and we have all got our fingers crossed. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:57) : Green Options Racing PTY LTD Handicap (95) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Burning Passion (Bet Now: $2.60) looks a near multi anchor for mine. Very good horse for James Cummings who has been given a little freshen up since resuming in the Gold Rush at Hawkesbury where he got badly held up behidn runners and was never really in clear running. Trial since was great, he loves to get his toe in, he flies second up…just wins.
Big Danger: 4 Jimmy Rea (Bet Now: $14.00) is a former Singapore galloper for Mark Walker that comes back to this part of the world for Te Akau Racing for the Richards/Autridge camp. Well performed record in Singapore and normally that form hasn’t stood up down under, but he looked to trial well at Deagon and you always have to respect the stable.
Long Shot: 17 Cornrow (Bet Now: $23.00) is a talented gelding that resumed three weeks back over 1100m at Toowoomba where he got back to near last in the run and looked disinterested but he got going and was a real eye catcher late behind Saipan, who won last weekend, so the form reads well, and Cornrow has performed well in town before.
Race Two (12:37) : Programmed Property Services Lord Mayors Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Religify (Bet Now: $2.20) goes clearly on top for me here. Very good galloper for Chris Waller who had really confident market support when resuming in the Prime Ministers Cup where he looked gone on the turn but he just kept finding under Bowman to surge hard and nail Siegfried right on the peg. Looks the leader here and should take some holding out.
Big Danger: 2 Amovatio (Bet Now: $5.00) was excellent first up in the Scone Cup. He got back to near last in the run and was never really a winning threat but he worked home strongly late to run sixth to Duca Valentinois. Didn’t get conditions to suit in this race last year but looks a better horse 12 months on.
Long Shot: 9 Saga Miss (Bet Now: $51.00)resumed in the Prime Ministers Cup and given that race was 1400m, clearly short of her best, it was expected she’d finish last and that is what she did. She is a second up winner though and she absolutely loves racing at Eagle Farm. Doubt she can win, but she can add some value into exotics.
Race Three (13:17) : Mitavite BRC Sires Produce Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 11 Malahat (Bet Now: $7.50) is a really talented youngster for Godolphin and Darren Beadman who deserves a crack at this type of race. Ran over 1200m at Canterbury last time out at the midweeks and absolutely bolted in under Tye Angland, winning by a space and running really sharp time. He did show last prep that he can take a sit, so he has versatility and enormous upside.
Big Danger: Chris Waller loves to target these juvenile races up north and he has a beauty here in the shape of 1 Tangled (Bet Now: $8.00). There was alot to like about the win in the Champagne a fortnight back. Looked legless on the wet track but he balanced up and savaged the line under McEvoy. Looks to have that Waller sense of timing and he’ll love the 1400m.
Long Shot: 18 Showashadow (Bet Now: $81.00) also comes through the Champagne when finishing behind Tangled and I thought her effort was quite tidy. Got a long way back in the run and didn’t really look like winning at any stage, but I thought she picked up nicely late for a filly clearly looking for further. I think she can measure up here back onto a bigger track, a track she has won on.
Race Four (13:57) : Channel 7 Premiers Cup 2200m:
Back Me: I think 8 The Chairman (Bet Now: $4.40) can turn the tables on Stampede. I think had Avdulla had his time again in the Chairmans, he probably wouldn’t have had the horse that close in the run. Due to circumstances I know, but I think that is why he couldn’t get past Stampede. I think with a more patient and quiet steer, I think he can win.
Big Danger: 13 Zambezi Warrior (Bet Now: $10.00) also comes through the Chairmans. This stayer for Te Akau Racing was three weeks between runs where he got a mile back in the run and never really looked likely but picked up really nicely late to run fourth. Bigger track and up to 2200m suits and looks a key contender.
Long Shot: The step up in trip will suit 11 Morendi (Bet Now: $16.00). He has been the form local stayer of the Autumn, winning several races in town. He contested the Chairmans and he was one of several horses not suited by the midrace breather and just lacked the turn of foot. He is a proven track/distance performer and he will be strong late.
Race Five (14:35) : Mullins Lawyers Grand Prix Stakes 2200m:
Back Me: I’ve been talking up 4 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $7.00) as a Derby contender since the start of the prep and we now get to see if he can measure up or not. I think he can. Lot to like about his win last time out over 1800m at Rosehill. Did plenty wrong, but once he put his mind to it, he really attacked the line with purpose and drew clear. Races as if he’ll eat up 2000m+ and he does have the fresh legs.
Big Danger: The Rough Habit is the key form reference for this and nothing from that event will beat 9 Order Again (Bet Now: $6.00) here. His effort was enormous given he was back on a day where those near the speed were advantaged and he is a horse who is much better on bigger tracks, and he spanked them the start prior at 1500m here. Very promising and he could well be the saving grace of the locals this Carnival.
Long Shot: 8 Here He Comes (Bet Now: $34.00) could be the improver here. He too comes through the Rough Habit and I thought at his Australian debut for Donna Logan, he was far from disgraced on a track and tempo that didn’t suit him. He is a big track horse, so Eagle Farm and up to 2200m with the run under the belt looks ideal.
Race Six (15:15) : Glenlogan Park Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 8 Raiment (Bet Now: $3.20) just picks herself here and could well pick herself for the remainder of the Brisbane Winter. She was outstanding during the Sydney Carnival with a poor effort in the PJ Bell in the middle. Couldn’t have trialled any better at Warwick Farm recently, she flies fresh and she did spank the older mares first up on Slipper Day.
Big Danger: 3 Egyptian Symbol (Bet Now: $7.50) had confident market support to win the Robert Sangster first up and even though she didn’t win, I thought she did a really good job in defeat when fifth to Secret Agenda, who of course came out and ran a ripper in the Goodwood last weekend, so that form does read well and she gets back to a track with give in it.
Long Shot: 18 Mystic Opal (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented mare for the Chris Anderson camp that deserves a crack at some blacktype. Trialled like Black Caviar prior to resuming over 1200m here where she looked to travel sweetly off the pace before picking up and savaging the line to get the win. Trialled at Doomben last week and looked very good to my eye. Big watch here.
Race Seven (15:55) : Darley Kingsford-Smith Cup 1300m:
Back Me: 6 Clearly Innocent (Bet Now: $12.00) looks a clear threat and rightfully so. Eye catching first run for Kris Lees in the Hawkesbury Gold Rush before winning his second successive Luskin Star during the Scone Carnival where he was given a peach by Bowman and he showed an electric turn of foot. From all reports he worked the house down on Saturday and is spot on for this.
Big Danger: Only because he has credits in the bank, I’ll include 1 Black Heart Bart (Bet Now: $3.90). What I will say is that he needs to improve big time on the effort first up in the Goodwood last Saturday. Stable have come out and said he was ridden too close…I ain’t buying that. He had his chance. Just wasn’t good enough. Saving graces are that he flies second up and is back to WFA.
Long Shot: I wouldn’t drop off 7 Start Wondering (Bet Now: $26.00). Trialled like Black Caviar prior to resuming in the BTC Cup where he didn’t seem to handle the tight turns and racing without room between runners but he was far from disgraced behind Redzel. Up to 1300m looks perfect and onto Eagle Farm and the spacious surroundings it offers, he’ll take some beating.
Race Eight (16:32) : Sky Racing Fred Best Classic 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Tessera…(Bet Now: $4.80) well dear me, sorry for reminding you of the Gold Coast Guineas. To put it bluntly, he should have won by a space. Just had no luck at all in the straight when appearing to be bolting and when he did get clear, he savaged the line to just miss. That’s two very good runs back from a break, and third up now, he should be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 12 Billy The Kid (Bet Now: $18.00) is a very good horse for the Meagher camp. Fitness beat him fresh before tackling the Queensland Day where he was outstanding against the tempo/bias, rattling home behind Good Standing. He will love returning to Eagle Farm and he is proven here on multiple occasions, which is a big tick.
Long Shot: 9 Oink (Bet Now: $23.00) should be forgiven for his failure in the Queensland Day. He was wide no cover throughout and just couldn’t come on at all after that tough run. The run prior, which was first up, saw him win and beat Billy The Kid. He is quite capable and his form from last prep does read quite well for this. He can bounce back hard.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Raiment
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Burning Passion
VALUE: Race Three Number 11 Malahat
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9
Leg Two: 8
Leg Three: 6, 7, 8, 11
Leg Four: 5, 7, 8, 10
$50 Investment= 15.62% of the dividend if successful
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