27/7/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Winter Challenge day

Pretty keen on 7 Lucicello (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) for Chris Waller. Was down to run here two weeks ago but was a late scratching when fancied by some. Reason she was fancied was due to her last start win on the Kenso track when producing outstanding late splits relative to the day in winning. Tick over trial here last Friday was brilliant and just loved the way she charged through the line. She’s ready to rock’n’roll.

2 Exceed The Stars (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) was somewhat of a lucky winner last time out at Canterbury given Mandela was going to go straight past him but veered off under pressure and threw the race away. In saying that, Exceed The Stars did do everything right and got the win. Mandela was disappointing last Saturday, so the form looks suspect, but draws a good gate with an in form Nash Rawiller steering.

3 Not Faint Hearted (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a Gary Portelli trained colt who resumed over 1100m here two weeks ago where he sat on a strong tempo and did kick for a few strides but dropped out late to run a well held fourth behind Spend. Like him up to 1200m and I think with a more conservative steer, he’ll be much better off. Knockout chance for sure if that eventuates.

Looking for one with upside and I think 13 Maid Marilyn (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is definitely one that has room for improvement. Has had a few runs for John Sprague and I’ve liked what I’ve seen. Last couple have come at Grafton, firstly over 1100m, which was too short, but made up good ground late. Then raced over 1400m in the Mothers Gift where she just missed after being hooked back to last from the wide gate. Draws much better here, if Jay Ford can take advantage of that, I think she can only run well.

Terry Evans has 4 Onemore Sapphire (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) flying but had been racing well without winning. That changed on Ramornie Day at Grafton with the stable finding a very winnable Class 2 and under Chris O’Brien, he finally got to the outside on the horse and he finished over the top. If this was 1800m, he’d be a moral. Just back to 1500m is the only thing niggling me.

Danny Williams has got 12 Refire (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) going well. Impressive maiden winner three back at Goulburn before contesting Highways here at his past two. Two back he just got a mile out of his ground in a total forgive before drawing much better last time, taking advantage of it and finishing off nicely to run a close up fourth to My Blue Jeans. Wouldn’t shock at all if he won.

2 Connemara (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) looks ready to win for Bjorn Baker. She’s been excellent in two runs back from a spell, both over 1200m at Randwick. First up went down narrowly to Gongs before racing there a few weeks ago when beaten narrowly again, this time by Notation, who franked the form next start. Third up now at 1200m, she does look well placed and for mine is one of the hardest to beat in a competitive race.

5 Stella Sea Sun (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) has been really well placed by Kris Lees right throughout her career, but now it’s time to take the step up and see what level she can get to. Hasn’t raced for over a month since scoring an impressive win on the Kenso track, helped by a strong tempo and a lovely steer by Blake Shinn. Back to 1200m no issue and form out of that race has been solid.

Not sure she wins, but for multiples I’d be including 8 Moccasin Miss (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS). Gary Portelli trains this mare, who just missed two back over 1100m at Canterbury before racing over 1100m here two weeks ago where Agent Pippa really ran along in front, making it a proper race and it made sure Moccasin Miss was off the bit on the turn, chasing, but she kept finding the line well enough. 1200m looks a good stepping stone and she’s a must for exotics.

Going to have a throw at the stumps in the shape of the Luke Pepper trained 4 Viceroy (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS). Thought he was really good first up at Randwick behind Southern Lad before going to the Ramornie at Grafton where he got the suck nearer the rail before peeling wider and he looked a winning chance. Just lacked the class to put them away, having to settle for a close up fourth. 1350m on a dry deck I like and happy to have something on each way.

Can 5 River Bird (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) continue her winning ways? Jason Coyle has done an outstanding job with this filly this time in, winning three on the bounce, the latest coming two weeks ago over 1200m where she looked like she’d just place, but the last 100m, she surged hard late and got the win. Just has to handle the step up to 1350m and she’ll take some beating.

3 Royal Tudor (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a definite knockout chance here. He was most unlucky two back at Tamworth when lumping 62.5kg, getting held up at a crucial time when having something to offer. He then had to carry 64.5kg at Gunnedah on a bog track and class got him home. I reckon he’s flying, he tumbles in weight and is proven in town. Think he’ll run really well.

10 Our Candidate (Bet Now: $4.40) is racing well for Kris Lees. Put pay to an ordinary field two back at Wyong before racing over 2400m at Randwick three weeks ago where he tried hard from off the pace and got close to Kaapfever, but that horse just kicked late and held on. Like him back on top of the ground, got upside and stable is absolutely flying at the moment.

6 Ilwendo (Bet Now: $2.40) has returned this prep in pretty good order for Matty Smith and returns to Sydney after a hit-and-run mission to Doomben three weeks ago saw him bolt up, leading throughout under a lovely front running steer from McGillivray. He likely lands on speed here and up to 2400m I like for this import. Has to step up a bit re class, but does have upside.

4 Kaapfever (Bet Now: $8.00) is going quite well for Joe Pride, shooting for three on the bounce. Toughed it out strongly to win over 2400m at Randwick before going up 9kg in weight and stepping back to 2200m at Warwick Farm last Wednesday but he was still too good for them. Gets good weight relief once again and proven Saturday performer, so has to be respected.

Bit of a waddle your finger and hope for the best set up here. I’ll go the way of the Lee Curtis trained 6 Blazing (Bet Now: $12.00). He has won his past two in impressive fashion, both over 1300m at Hawkesbury and each time, his late splits have been pretty solid compared to his rivals despite sitting near the speed last time. Think he can measure up against this lot.

5 Wimlah (Bet Now: $4.50) has returned in good order for the WaterBott stable. Chased the above average Haut Brion Her first up at Canterbury before racing at Warwick Farm last Wednesday where Shinn gave the filly a peach of a steer and the ride clearly won the race. Looks to be in career best form and finds a winnable race here so has to be respected IMO.

The interesting runner is 3 Ligulate (Bet Now: $11.00), formerly with Godolphin but is now with Australian Bloodstock and trained by Cody Morgan. His best is certainly good enough to measure up here and his trial in late June at Muswellbrook was quite good. Been waiting for a dry track, he gets it here, draws well…I think he’s certainly one to watch, especially from a market perspective with this stable.

A dry track will be music to the ears of 12 Salsonic (Bet Now: $26.00) for Jason Coyle. I thought he ran enormous in the Winter Stakes. He’s a dud on wet ground but he made up good ground from near last to run a close up sixth to Eckstein. If this was Randwick 1600m, he’d be one of the better each way gambles in a little while, but Rosehill 1500m should be okay, especially on a firmer deck.

I think this race evolves around 9 Cradle Mountain (Bet Now: $6.00) and what sort of pressure he cops, because if he can get a cheap furlong or two, I think he’ll take some running down. Jury was somewhat out on him after two poor runs to start the prep but he bounced back in the Winter Stakes two weeks ago, leading and giving a really good kick. Just felt the pinch late when a close up fourth to Eckstein. 1500m is the unknown, but with a cheap lead, especially on dry ground, he can bounce back into the winners list.

I think a firmer track will really help the Chris Waller trained 6 Seaway (Bet Now: $7.00). He resumed in the Civic Stakes from four weeks ago when wide no cover on speed and was entitled to drop away but he kept finding and was really good in defeat when fifth to Gaulois, beaten just under a length. If that hasn’t busted him, I think he’ll take some beating here.

Keen to see 8 You Make Me Smile (Bet Now: $4.60) resume for Jason Coyle. This son of So You Think really came of age last prep, winning three on the bounce and bear in mind he was only beaten three lengths in the Liverpool Cup by subsequent Doncaster runner up Dreamforce. Looks to be intent for a first up assault based on his trials, notably the Kembla trial, and despite the first up stats reading one from four, first up last prep he was well tried but they got the tactics horribly wrong. Jump and run is his go.

The Rosehill 1100m is the perfect set up for 4 Bon Amis (Bet Now: $2.45) but just a little query on how well he’s going. Thought the trials were solid without being great. Caught late first up in the June Stakes before going to this track/distance last time on a bog and he seemed to struggle in the conditions. Back on firmer footing with Bowman aboard, he can win for sure.

Thought the second up run of 10 Dissolute (Bet Now: $71.00) behind Albumin was quite good. He got badly held up when having something to offer and had to go back to the inside, which wasn’t the best spot to be for the meeting. Can be a hard horse to catch, but at his best, he’s certainly up to beating these and you’re getting a decent enough price to find out just how well he’s going.

If we can get decent odds, double figures at least, then I’m keen to bet up on the Cameron Crockett trained 2 Sharpe Hussler (Bet Now: $7.00). He resumed three weeks ago over 1000m at Randwick on a testing track, something he hates, yet he ran very well in defeat behind Invictus Salute. Firmer ground looks the big key, he’s a winner at the track/distance and the trial at Scone on Monday was outstanding.

1 Greyworm (Bet Now: $3.00) is a very talented son of Master Of Design for Team Hawkes that resumes. This bloke had a three run prep in the early part of the Autumn, winning first up at the Valley before being on the wrong leg cost him there next time out. Then went to Flemington where h knuckled at the start and had to dig up to lead, which cost him the win IMO when beaten by Simply Invincible. Loved the way he trialled last Monday at Hawkesbury and appears ready to go.

Firmer footing should help the James Cummings trained 9 Revenire (Bet Now: $19.00). This gelding comes through the Invictus Salute race from three weeks ago at Randwick where he peeled out wide and presented to do something positive but he really struggled in the conditions behind the 3YO filly. Like him back on top of the ground and sitting off a fast speed, he can run an improved race.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Sharpe Hussler

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 7 Lucicello

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 12 Salsonic

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 9, 12

Leg Three: 4, 8, 10, 11

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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