27/4/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, The Showdown day

Caulfield will conduct a ten event program on Saturday, headlined by The Showdown (1200m). Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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The Showdown 🏆: View the Field and Odds for The Showdown

16 Tiffany Valentine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Distaff so staying to this level, she clearly appeals. She ran three weeks back in the Oracle Son race, beaten just over a length by the stablemate, but I really liked the way she finished her race off. If she can settle closer, she’ll be hard to hold out.

12 White Bear (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Michael Moroney. He has raced over this track/distance his past two, the latest being three weeks ago where he seemingly had every chance from just off the speed, beaten under a length by Oracle Son. He was ridden with a sit there…I think more positive ride, he’ll take running down.

1 Bill The Boxer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team McEvoy trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since around this time last year when down the track in the Wangoom behind Outlaws Revenge. He is a good horse when right, he’s jumped out well leading in and does get in well after the claim.

8 Moya Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) jumps straight to 1800m, which I find interesting. Julius Sandhu trained mare that resumed over 1400m at Sandown where she was given a peach by J Kah and in a driving finish, she was too good and was impressive. Tricky gate and rising in trip, but she has good upside and a touch of quality.

10 Smokin Princess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Michelle Payne. This girl has won her past two, both over the mile at Pakenham, where each time she has given them a start and a beating to finish best and get the job done nicely. Good test here at Saturday metro level but hard to knock the way she’s going.

1 Tommy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Team McEvoy. He resumed two weeks back at Bendigo over the mile where he was on speed throughout and he tried his guts out but bumped into a pretty sharp filly in stablemate Coco Sun, who goes around as a leading contender in the SA Oaks, so that form does read well.

3 Barbie’s Fox (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has class on her side and I’ll bank on class getting that home. This mare comes through the Queen Of The Turf at Randwick where she was safely held but far from disgraced in defeat behind Zougotcha. Bit of rain forecast this week would be ideal for this mare because she loves getting her toe in. Edge off the track, back miles in grade/depth, like her a lot.

1 Pounding (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the best horse in the race. Just not sure where he gets to from the map and that is the only reason why I am not declaring him. He resumed in the Country Discovery at Yarra Valley on Good Friday and was very good late from the back, charging to just miss out on picking up Savannah Cloud. Up in trip, fitter, class factor…clearly likeable.

7 New York Hurricane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has come back in really good order for Liam Howley and rates highly. He ran a fortnight back at Bendigo over the mile and kept chasing in a good effort but was clearly no match late for Coco Sun. Staying at the mile is interesting…not sure he has the class but a must for multiples.

4 Extratwo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Ciaron Maher trained mare that is racing in just about career best form. She was a dominant winner two back at The Valley before going to Bendigo two weeks back where she seemingly had every chance from just off the speed but found one better in a nice horse, Chorlton Lane. Should be around the mark.

2 Papillon Club (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Greg Eurell. She ran in the Bendigo Bracelet a fortnight back where she should have been right in the finish but didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight when wanting to build the revs. First up run behind Extratwo was encouraging so I think she’ll be a threat with luck from the gate.

6 Oh Too Good (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but she is a mare on the up and has promise. She won at Yarra Valley on Good Friday, getting a sweet sit in transit under Lane before angling into clear and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found and was too good. Good test here, but confident she measures up.

2 Magnaspin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Team Corstens, several weeks between runs since a strong win over 2040m at The Valley where he led throughout and he was there to be run down but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. He has versatility re racing pattern, he loves 2000m and this isn’t a deep race.

4 Berkeley Square (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Dan O’Sullivan since contesting the Easter Cup at this track/distance. He got back to near last in the run and did make up headway but was never really threatening behind Captain Envious. Month between runs so with room for improvement, he’s in the mix for sure.

1 Teewaters (Bet Now:  $SP.00) loves these VOBIS races and looks well suited here despite potentially needing maybe 2400m. He resumed two weeks back in the Golden Mile at Bendigo where he got back and found them too sharp when down the track behind El Soleado. Loves Caulfield, strong late, fitter…not dismissing him.

6 Elphinstone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong this time in for Team McEvoy. Looked a good thing in a Ballarat maiden fresh and duly saluted before going to the Bendigo Guineas two weeks ago where she was very good in defeat when closing off to finish second to War Machine. Hard fit now, can settle closer and the form around her does read well enough.

2 Modown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is starting to put it together for Charlotte Littlefield. This gelding was a strong winner two back at Pakenham before going to the Bendigo Guineas two weeks back where he was a real eye catcher, getting back to near last in the run and made up really good headway late in the piece behind War Machine. Like him up in trip and hard to beat if he can settle closer in the run.

8 Hey Bella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in really good order for Luke Oliver and is one of the knockout hopes. Market kept her safe in betting when she resumed over 1300m at Cranbourne in a maiden. She got into a lovely spot under Moor before angling clear and she got better as the race went on. No issue with the mile…class maybe, but all upside and is a first four contender.

Why can’t 5 The Astrologist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beat these? This is the easiest race he has contested…in forever it feels like. He hasn’t raced since the William Reid where he bombed the start and that sealed his fate behind Imperatriz. He won’t know himself in a race like this and given his record, he just looks absolutely thrown in.

7 Semillion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an enigma but the talent is there. He was a month between runs when racing two weeks back over 1100m at Bendigo. He was on speed throughout and tried his guts out but the gap between runs, I reckon condition just gave way late in the piece behind Senegalia. Fitter and up to 1200m, I am not dismissing him.

1 Jigsaw (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board and commands respect. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since Good Friday when close up in defeat in the Country Discovery at Yarra Valley. His best is clearly good enough and with an on speed racing style, class factor, he’ll take running down.

8 Bold Bastille (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the slight knock for Bold Bastille but ability wise, she has a few lengths on these. That was evident in the Gold Rush at Bendigo two weeks ago where she was Winx-like odds and duly saluted, leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in. That was 1000m…if she can stretch her brilliance to 1200m, she wins.

10 Lincolnshire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. She was a strong on speed winner at Morphettville in the Dequetteville three weeks ago, and she showed good ticker late to fend off a talented filly in Karavas. The wide draw should be handled via early speed and will look the winner at some stage.

14 Mrs Archibald (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice filly for Jason Warren. Debuted under the lights at Cranbourne when attempting to lead throughout and giving a very good sight but couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Brighella, before a good effort on the Heath track here last Wednesday. With her racing style, she’ll be around the mark.

1 Hedged (Bet Now:  $SP.00) wins this surely? He ran two weeks ago in the Arrowfield Sprint at Randwick and you can make a case to say he should have won, getting held up at the wrong time before eventually getting clear and charging late, just missing out on picking Joliestar. That has to be the right form for this.

5 Moby Dick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have an engine under the hood. Created an impression in a couple of electric wins at Pakenham before going to Bendigo where he got back and took a while to wind into his work but charged late and just missed out on the win when a narrow second to Atlantic Spirit. Back up to 1200m, he appeals.

2 Celui (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give cheek, which is what he did two weeks back at Bendigo when leading and he looked the winner for a few strides but couldn’t quite see it through when third to Atlantic Spirit. 1200m is the query but with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

9 Devoted (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He resumed in the Country Discovery at Yarra Valley…well, I say he trialled there, because he didn’t get out at any stage in the straight and just forget he went around behind Savannah Cloud. He’ll love the rise in trip, he has change up speed and a touch of quality to measure up.

2 Jimmy The Bear (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented animal for Patrick Payne that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Sep 9 when midfield over 2040m at The Valley but was at the end of a long prep and perhaps was looking for the paddock. Given a good break, he can sprint well fresh and will be strong at the end.

17 Wineglass Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Chris Waller trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Dec 9 at Randwick when perhaps just failing at 2000m at Stakes level behind Baby Rider. He is better suited over slightly further but has jumped out well leading in and can sprint well fresh. One for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Hedged

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Bold Bastille

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 9 Devoted

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 2, 8, 14, 17

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful.

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