27/3/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Golden Slipper day

One of the best racedays on the Sydney calendar is Golden Slipper Day and the 2021 edition shapes up to be a beauty once again. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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I think it’s well established that 2 Doubtland (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a three year old who loves to get his toe in, so with conditions to suit, I’m leaning his way. He resumed in the Fireball three weeks ago and to the eye, it was just a run, but didn’t mind his effort and the splits were good up until the final furlong when condition gave out. Think he’s hard to beat here.

4 Odeum (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. It was such a significant betting drift with her when resuming three weeks ago at Flemington. She had the suck run in behind and yes, was held up at a vital stage, but was she going well enough to win? I’d say no, so jury is somewhat out, but she is the Thousand Guineas winner who has upside.

5 Private Eye (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a horse I’m very wary of. Joe Pride trained three year old that returns to racing after a pretty strong Spring/Summer, where he put together a number of impressive wins. Been freshened up for the Carnival and from all reports, he flew in a Warwick Farm jumpout last week. Market watch for sure.

I think 4 Quick Thinker (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is one of the better gambles on the card, provided the track is genuinely wet, which it should be despite fine weather the next few days. You look at his wet track form, especially in Sydney, and gee it reads so well for a race like this. Two runs back from a break have been solid and is now getting to a suitable trip. He only runs well to my eye.

I think 8 Collide (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is ticking along nicely towards the Sydney Cup. Made his Australian debut three weeks ago at Randwick and was good late without jumping up and down behind Mount Popa. His GF is the Sydney Cup, so has improvement to come, but does have class/quality.

14 Realm Of Flowers (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is another that is on the right track towards the Sydney Cup. She was very good in defeat four weeks ago at Randwick when doing work to get on speed and fighting on strongly when second to Yonkers. Gets to a more suitable trip now and will lvoe getting her toe in.

Not sure about 7 She’s Ideel (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) being a Sydney Cup contender, but she does look the winner of this race. Has been excellent in two runs back from a spell. Good late fresh at Rosehill behind Nimalee before producing outstanding late splits against the pattern of the day behind Missybeel in the Aspiration. Third up, 1900m, give in the track…is nearly a good thing to my eye.

5 Polly Grey (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is 0/10 since arriving in Australia but I do think Chris Waller has her going well. She was closing off nicely at the end fresh behind Nimalee. Then went to the Aspiration when wide throughout and fought on quite gamely in defeat I thought given the work she did. Leading chance.

3 Missybeel (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while but she’s been a ripper for Bjorn Baker. Got a Stakes win on the board when taking out the Aspiration three weeks ago, edging out stablemate She’s Ideel in a tight go. Racing well and is hard to beat against this lot, especially getting back up in trip.

There isn’t much that can be said that hasn’t already been said about 1 Addeybb (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS). World class middle distance horse that makes his second trip to Sydney after taking out this race and the Queen Elizabeth last year. 12 months on, I think you can say he’s a better horse, but that can be said about most of these. But, he gets conditions to suit, lands on speed and it will take a star to run him down.

6 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) is indeed that star that could run her down. She’s a champion mare and IMO, the best horse in Australia. Champion qualities were on display when winning the Chipping Norton. She had a great struggle to get past Colette but she dug in when required and got the stride in to win. This is her A1 set up and will give the UK star a great race.

The boom around 3 Master Of Wine (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is quashed I think after a poor Spring, but the camp have started again this Autumn and he has returned in pretty good order I feel. Resumed in the Chipping Norton and was pretty good late in the piece behind Verry Elleegant. He gets to a more suitable trip and was good second up last prep in the Makybe Diva.

This has been the target race for 3 Mo’Unga (Bet Now: $2.80) all prep and he does look the standout in terms of the boys engaged here. He should have won the Randwick Guineas. Just had no luck in the straight, then Tommy dropped his rein when trying to get to the outside. He’s flying this horse and is racing as if he will eat up 2000m.

15 Montefilia (Bet Now: $7.00) is a very interesting runner. Quality filly for David Payne that goes 1400m to 2000m. Resumed in the Surround where I was pretty keen on her chances but she just got too far back in the run and was never a winning threat, but did make up ground late. To my eye, it’s Mo’Unga or different form. Montefilia is different form.

11 Sky Lab (Bet Now: $11.00) is the horse, along with The Elanora, I have eyes on from a Derby perspective. Sky Lab took on the older horses four weeks ago at Randwick and ran well without much luck behind Yonkers in a good effort I thought. Back to his own age, he’ll be strong at the end. Just wants room to move.

$12 all in for 2 Avilius (Bet Now: $4.50) was ridiculous. I think he was that price because it would seem the logical progression would be the Ranvet. But staying at the mile range, are they thinking similar thoughts to former stablemate Hartnell, in keeping him to the mile ie potentially a Doncaster horse? Perhaps, but he has the proper form around him with a narrow third fresh in the Chipping Norton, he loves Rosehill, loves wet ground…hopefully the overs god is kind.

Is 13 Funstar (Bet Now: $4.60) back on track? Maybe? Thought she was plain fresh in the Apollo behind Colette but ridden positively in the Chipping Norton, she ran a much improved race when a close up fourth to Verry Elleegant. Her best is clearly good enough to take this out. Just has to produce it now.

11 Junipal (Bet Now: $26.00) lacks the class of some of these, but one thing that brings him right into contention is his love affair with wet tracks, which is what the conditions are forecast to be for Saturday. He’s a talented animal for the Maher/Eustace camp that is first up, having not raced since an end of prep run in the Ballarat Cup where he looked a tired horse. Fresh legs at 1500m I do like and his recent trial was encouraging enough to suggest he has come back well.

I’m in the corner of 2 Profiteer (Bet Now: $4.00). The Todman does look the strongest form line leading into this, from a Sydney 2YO perspective. He was a month between runs and very keen in front. Despite that, he fought on so strongly and was only nabbed late by Anamoe. Improvement to come, lands on speed and will take a power of running down I’d suggest.

8 Stay Inside (Bet Now: $4.60) was a big winner from the barrier draw. He can lob into a perfect spot just behind the speed. Ridden negatively from the gate in the Todamn and things just didn’t work out for him behind Anamoe in a somewhat luckless effort. Gets a much better run this time around and Tommy knows a thing or two about winning this big race.

I love 13 Four Moves Ahead (Bet Now: $6.50). She’s a ripper for John Sargent who was such an impressive debut winner on the Kenso track. Freshened up and during that time had a couple of set backs, but was ready to go in the Sweet Embrace and produced one of the wins of the meeting given she sat near a fast speed and was still able to kick off it and be strong at the end. You’d like to think there is only improvement to come.

I am hoping Godolphin run 12 Tailleur (Bet Now: $4.80) here and not the Birthday Card. She’s a great gamble at the odds I think, especially the way the map reads and with only 51kg on her back. Led throughout to win the Triscay last time but IMO, but she is far better with something to chase. Swimmer, fast run 1100m…think she only runs well.

Class will carry 1 Eduardo (Bet Now: $6.00) a long way. Traditionally, topweights have an ordinary record in this race, but I think 57kg isn’t too bad, especially for this guy, who is an absolute swimmer, and did smash the Randwick 1000m track record by half a second when winning the Challenge. Any hint of that performance here and he will just about win.

The wet track does concern me with 11 Fiesta (Bet Now: $34.00) but since she has been trained as a sprinter, she has been electric. Resumed three weeks ago in the Wenona Girl at Randwick and just had far too much to do from the back behind Vulpine in an effort where I thought it was a definite pass mark. She’ll be strong at the end of 1100m. Just doesn’t want to get her toe in too much.

Keen on 4 Wandabaa (Bet Now: $6.00). She was a hard luck tale fresh in the Maurice McCarten. The track was forecast to be wet. It ended up being close to a Firm2, then she was back against the track pattern. Did a remarkable job to get as close as she did. Gets a much better set up this time around, and just has to run up to the resumption to win here IMO.

I think 12 Emanate (Bet Now: $3.60) deserves another chance. James Cummings trained mare that was explosive when winning here fresh. Then went to the Wenona Girl when an odds on pop. Sat on speed and on face value, had her chance behind Vulpine, but I reckon she is better with something to chase, so hopefully that eventuates here.

3 Vulpine (Bet Now: $14.00) is an absolute beauty for Brad Widdup. Puts herself on speed and gives her all, and that racing pattern was rewarded with a Stakes win in the Wenona Girl three weeks ago, when leading throughout and she was simply too good. Harder here, but she’ll give herself every chance.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Avilius

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 She’s Ideel

LONG SHOT: Race Race Two Number 4 Quick Thinker

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 2, 8, 13, 15

Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 11, 12

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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