27/1/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm, Australia Day Cup day

Warwick Farm will play host to an eight race card on Monday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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9 Volatile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting towards D-Day i say but he does find a maiden that is very winnable for him. He resumed in the Magic Millions Maiden where he got back in an on pace dominated affair and kept finding the line without threatening. Hoping for a positive ride, like he’s the best horse in the race and takes beating.

8 Shalaa Gold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is similar to Volatile in the sense that D-Day is looming. She ran fifth in the race mentioned above when on speed and seemingly had her chance but was a bit on the plain side late in the piece. Firmer footing, home track advantage, she commands respect.

6 Jacob’s Leader (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Written By that debuts for John Thompson. He has had just the one trial this time in for start one, seeing him place at Canterbury and moved well enough I thought. Bred to be handy so watch the market.

6 La Roja (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Peter Snowden trained filly that resumes, having not raced since Feb 10 when debuting in the Lonhro Plate and was never really a factor behind Castanya. Spelled, had a prep in the Winter with no run and comes here this prep with two trials, so the grounding is there, she’ll get three wide cover and launch late.

7 Mia Ballerina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a well bred filly that is first up for Chris Waller. She debuted at Newcastle back in August when off speed and was green/raw but kept finding the line in defeat I thought behind a good one, Spirit Of Wealth. Trial work has been strong and J Mac steers.

11 The Stars (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Chris Waller. Market said she had three legs when debuting at Canterbury and it was proven right as she got back off the speed and was never really a factor. Had trialled up very well leading in so I am not dismissing her.

1 Automne Tree (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back into the winners list. He was met with strong market support when debuting at Canterbury but he got stuck wide no cover and the hard run just told on him late in the piece. J Mac on, better for the run and he had trialled super leading in.

4 Cold Brew (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an engine under the hood. Runner up in all three career outings, the latest coming on the Kenso over 1400m where he tried hard but bumped into a pretty good one, Blue Vein. He has ability, should slide forward and be around the mark.

2 Bernen Win (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He hasn’t raced since Jan 8 when running a close up third at this track/distance, albeit in a maiden weaker than this. But, the tick over trial was good and maps to do no work.

6 Luxe Eternal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be better for the first up run, which came at Canterbury on New Years Day where she got back in the run and while she was never really a threat, she kept finding the line and was good in defeat. Fitter, can settle closer and be strong at the end.

1 Darling Downs (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was scratched from a harder race at Randwick on Saturday in preference for this. She ran over the mile at Randwick last time when off speed and kept chasing in a pretty good effort in defeat behind Inquiring Minds. Drops a fair way in grade/depth and gets J Mac aboard.

5 Surprise Valley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a GaiBott trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Aug 3 at Newcastle when back in the run and failed to get involved behind Poppin Champagne. Two trials under the belt for the return and Blinkers on signals intent.

3 The Replicant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage, he saves her best here…he’s on top for me. Latest run was over 1400m on the Kenso when off the speed and kept chasing in a really good effort in defeat I thought behind Matter Of Honour. Back to where he races best, kind map, happy to be in his corner.

5 Cosmic Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door. He’s had a few homes throughout his career and now finds himself with Joe Pride, who is a gun with a tried horse. His last run was Dec 14 at Randwick when off speed and kept chasing behind Pier Pressure. Now with Pride, tick over trial was good and his best is clearly good enough.

4 Satness (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is probably better suited in Midway company but with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance. He hasn’t raced since Dec 7 at Rosehill when finding a bog track and struggled to pick his feet up late. If he lands near the front, he’ll run well.

5 Tiger Town (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning in what looks an open contest. Home track advantage for Greg Hickman that ran at Canterbury last time when just off the speed before angling clear and knuckled down strongly but just found one better in Agita. Hard fit now, trained here, in well after the claim, rates highly.

All you can do is win and that is what 7 Puntin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done in two career outings, debuting with a sharp win at Nowra before taking care of an average bunch at Moruya. Different gravy here re class/depth, but he has the Bjorn Baker polish and a good racing style.

1 Seven’s (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Former French galloper that was 3/3 over there before heading down under. He looks to have trialled up well enough for the Aussie debut so I think watch the market and see what it does.

If he’s a donkey, he’s a donkey, but fitter and on a dry deck, I have to butter up and speck 4 Akua’rius (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He comes through the January Cup where he hated the wet ground it seemed and didn’t let down at all behind Osipenko. Fitter and up in trip, I keep coming back to The Beauford where he was excellent against the pattern. I think he can run a big race at a price.

9 Tajanis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is right down in the weights and has the 2400m run under the belt off the back of a win at Rosehill where he got a 12/10 from J Mac and was much too good for his rivals. Good test here at Stakes grade but think he has the set up to run really well.

3 Taramansour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will have no issue with the trip and has a touch of quality about him after a win over 2500m at Flemington where he looked the winner a long way out. Just a matter of getting clear and once that eventuated, he was dominant. Hard to beat I say.

9 Massira (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top in the get out. Matty Dale trained gelding that is second, having not raced since Jan 4 when a sharp winner over the short course at Kembla, and ran fast time in doing so. 1000m horse in a 1000m race, with T Clark on…good recipe to run well.

4 Wallenda (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. He returns to racing as a gelding for Ciaron Maher, having not raced since Aug 10 at The Valley when off speed and just fair late behind Home Rule. Given the ultimate operation and has trialled well leading in, plus gets J Mac.

14 Photographics (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been freshened up since a Boxing Day triumph at Randwick where she got the right run in transit before being clicked up by Bourke and she showed nice change up speed late to win and win well. Good test here, but think she measures up.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 1 Automne Tree

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Tiger Town

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Akua’rius

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 5, 7, 10

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9

Leg Four: 4, 8, 9, 14

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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