A strong card of racing has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday, with the feature race being the $100,000 Listed Winter Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:00pm) : TAB Place Multi Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen here on Lieder (Best Odds: $4.20) for Godolphin. Loved the way he trialled prior to resuming at Warwick Farm, where I just don’t think he was 100% happy around the tight turning circuit, and perhaps resuming on the soft track wasn’t his go. Should get a firmer surface here, bigger track, fitter…looks the one.
Big Danger: Fulfilled Promise (Best Odds: $7.50) worked home strongly two back at Warwick Farm behind Maternal before racing there again last week and getting the job done, albeit narrowly, but the win was impressive nonetheless. There looked to be a bit of depth in the field even though the time wasn’t flash. Looks to be heading into the right direction and should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Libidosun (Best Odds: $2.40) got the job done well two back at Warwick Farm in a pretty strong maiden, then went to Randwick and just failed to win, getting narrowly beat by Backstab, the horse he beat at Warwick Farm. On his home track now, soft draw and Shinn rides, plus he handles all conditions. Looks the logical threat for sure in what looks a simple race to sort out.
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Race Two (12:35pm) : Schweppes Handicap (84) 1900m: Form Guide
Back Me: It’s hard to knock winning form, so I’m going with Mydream (Best Odds: $11.00). She really caught the eye three back at Canterbury before going to Warwick Farm for her next two starts, winning both, largely thanks to a couple of peach rides from Jess Taylor, who retains the ride. The mare seems to be loving life at Kembla Grange compared to Taree, and with only 51kg on her back from a soft draw, there is no reason why she can’t it make city wins on the bounce.
Big Danger: Misvonn (Best Odds: $2.70) looks the threat. She was pretty last time out over 2000m here in a strong race. She got stuck wide no cover for the second half of the race, and it was a day where it was very hard to sit wide and stick on, but she did and eventually ran fifth, beaten over a length. Draws much better now, on the limit and will appreciate the drop back to 1900m.
Roughie: Casino Dancer (Best Odds: $14.00) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday at Randwick over the mile where she stormed home from near last to run third to impressive winner Pajaro. The last time she was on the quick back up, she ran fifth here behind Phrases, then backed up six days later to run third to I’m Imposing in the Summer Cup. Hard to beat.
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Race Three (1:10pm) : Dyldam Significant Stakes 1900m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen here on Cauthen’s Power (Best Odds: $4.40) for Chris Waller. He was ridden a touch too close I thought two back at Kembla before stepping up to 1800m here and being completely luckless behind Skyline Blush. Looks suited by the extra 100m in distance, similar field depth wise and should prove hard to hold out.
Big Danger: Our Catch (Best Odds: $9.00) trialled really well at Randwick prior to running in the Skyline Blush race mentioned above. He attempted to lead all the way and was given a peach front running steer from Tim Clark, but he just couldn’t quite run the trip out given it was his first run in nearly a month. Should take some upside, looks the leader and could well prove tough to get past.
Roughie: The value runner for mine is the Mick Dwyer trained Kiseki Dane (Best Odds: $34.00), who has won his past two starts in impressive fashion, the latest coming at Muswellbrook for Crossing Guard and Stay Positive, both of which ran on the weekend and placed in their respective races, so the form has held up okay, and this horse will be very strong at the end of 1900m.
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Race Four (1:45pm) : Ronald McDonald House Westmead Winter Cup 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really good and intriguing staying event. Going with Our Voodoo Prince (Best Odds: $7.00) here for Chris Waller. Earlier on this prep he had been really struggling to find form, but his last two runs have been full of merit, both at Stakes level. He stuck to the task pretty gamely in the Stayers Cup (3200m) when second to Lovethebeaches, beaten five lengths. Dropping back to 2400m should be ideal, gets weight relief and is just bursting to win a race.
Big Danger: Bonfire (Best Odds: $3.20) was an alarming drifter in betting when resuming in the Hawkesbury Cup (1600m), yet he sat on speed and toughed it out pretty strongly I thought on a testing surface when fourth to Sons Of John, beaten just under three lengths. Quickly up to 2400m from the mile is a worry, but he is in the right stable for that massive leap in distance, and the lead should be his on a platter.
Roughie: Dream Folk (Best Odds: $7.00) ran third in that Reigning race mentioned above, and he was pretty good considering he came from near last on the turn. The run may have been flattered a touch given it was a day where swoopers were advantaged, but he is in ripping form and will be suited by the rise to 2400m.
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Race Five (2:25pm) : Quilton Sprint (78) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Lockroy (Best Odds: $4.60) here. His opening three runs this time in, all at Canterbury, were fantastic before coming here a fortnight back, and aided by an absolute peach from Tommy Berry, the beautifully bred gelding stormed home from the back to get the job done. 1200m is his limit, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles this race given there is good depth here, but he is rock hard fit, and if ridden with cover, he can unleash a brilliant turn of foot.
Big Danger: Queen Of Kariba (Best Odds: $3.30) was scratched from an easier race at Canterbury on Wednesday to target this harder assignment, but she is in great form, winning her last two starts at that track, largely thanks to a couple of beaut rides from Winona Costin. She has to do it away from Canterbury, but she has fitness, gets weight relief and has a lethal record at 1200m.
Roughie: Well Hardley Ever (Best Odds: $7.50) trialled really well at Warwick Farm prior to running over this track/distance a couple of weeks back where he just failed to pick up Lockroy, who had all the momentum out wide on the track. He gets the weight pull on that horse now, and there appears to be more upside. Hard to beat.
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Race Six (3:05pm) : Perfection Fresh Handicap 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m all over Cafe Society (Best Odds: $6.50) here. Classy import from Europe now with Gai Waterhouse. Showed really good promise when racing overseas, with the clear highlight from an Australian perspective being a third to Contributer in a Listed race, beaten just over two lengths. Some of Australias best horses have struggled to finish as close as that. Recent Randwick trial from Cafe Society was fantastic, and really, if he turns up fit and healthy, he’ll blow these away.
Big Danger: Had Cafe Society not been in this race, I’d be all over Rockalong (Best Odds: $6.50). He was very impressive in winning last time out over 1350m here, charging home from near last and ended up winning with a fair bit of ease. He looks to be a horse with real upside, and he’ll only be suited by the added fitness and step up to 1500m. Definite threat if the top tip is off his game.
Roughie: Eigelstein (Best Odds: $21.00) wasn’t too bad when resuming here behind You’ll Never, then didn’t have the best of luck here when seventh to Mirage, beaten just over three lengths. He looks to have good upside and is capable of figuring in the finish with some luck from the awkward draw.
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Race Seven (3:45pm) : Cellarbrations Handicap (85) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Karakuchi (Best Odds: $6.50) here. She didn’t have the best of luck two back at Randwick when well backed before sitting wide no cover. She then came here over 1400m and worked home very strongly late to run second to Sensualism in what is turning out to be a very strong form race. Tumbles down 6kg in weight and gets a 2kg weight pull on Sensualism for a length defeat, plus she also gets the barrier draw advantage.
Big Danger: Sensualism (Best Odds: $8.50) looks the danger. She proved too good for her rivals here two back before going to the mile at Warwick Farm and sticking to the task very gamely when a close second to in form galloper Mydream, who goes around as a leading contender earlier on in the day. Back to 1500m on her home track should suit, and though drawn awkwardly, she should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: The interesting runner is Orion Love (Best Odds: $12.00), formerly with Chris Waller but is now with Warwick Farm trainer Louis Baudron. Hasn’t raced since January when fourth to Sasenkile at Rosehill. Lone trial to prepare for this came a couple of weeks back on her home track, and she looked pretty sharp when third to Emerald City. Watch market moves.
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Race Eight (4:25pm) : Tab.com.au Handicap (85) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Wonderbolt (Best Odds: $9.00) on top for me in the last. He was very good when resuming on Anzac Day at Randwick when second to Quartzite, then was sent to the Joseph/Jones stable and ran at Rosehill a couple of weeks back when working home late to run second to Stakes performed mare Brook Road, beaten 1.5L. Draws a beautiful gate and don’t worry about the apprentice riding because Josh Cartwright is very talented.
Big Danger: Mohave (Best Odds: $12.00) drops back to benchmark company after winning a Stakes race at Doomben during the Carnival, sitting on speed throughout and kicking on strongly to win albeit narrowly. Comes back to Sydney and benchmark company, plus he drops in weight and is a winner at this track/distance.
Roughie: Looking for some value to include in exotics and one horse is Aghamore (Best Odds: $18.00), who resumes here from a three month break. He last ran over 1400m here during the Carnival when down the track behind Medcaut. First trial leading up to this was just fair, but he looked much better at Wyong when winning. Draws a good gate, McEvoy rides and can run well fresh.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Cafe Society
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Cauthen's Power
VALUE: Race Two Number 4 Mydream
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 8
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 8, 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 14, 15, 16, 17
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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