Racing returns to Caulfield for the first time since Caulfield Cup Day this Monday for Boxing Day racing. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:35) : Joe Brown Plate (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Alter Call (Bet Now: $2.50) is heading towards the Magic Millions Guineas but in order to be regarded as a serious threat here, he has to put this field away and I am confident he can do the job. He was aided by a weak field and bias when resuming on Werribee Cup Day but he looked very sharp and did it pretty much in first gear. Oliver remains on from the paint and I think he is the one to beat here.
Big Danger: 2 Emptor (Bet Now: $4.50) is a talented Godolphin colt that comes from NSW after winning two from two at Beaumont-Newcastle where he really toughed it out strongly to win both races. We have seen the record that these Godolphin horses have produced when they come from NSW eg Khaki, and this bloke looks more than capable.
Long Shot: 8 Dollopini (Bet Now: $17.00) looked to be absolutely bolting in the run when racing in a Terang maiden last time out and all he needed was clear air. Once he got it, he really attacked the line and lunged hard late to grab the heavily backed Black Mosheen right on the line. That horse ran well at Sandown on Wednesday, so the form reads okay, he’s trained on the track, has upside…$21 seems good overs.
Race Two (14:10) : Dennis Hanrahan Handicap (78) 1800m:
Back Me: 8 Big Duke (Bet Now: $2.80) is a horse that I am a big fan of and I am very confident he can get the job done here. He was very good against the bias at his first Australian run behind Manhattan Boss at Bendigo before going to Sandown where he made his run near the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be and was nailed late by Castle Hackett. Third up now and getting out to an ideal trip, draws well, claim for Ben Allen…looks the best bet on the program.
Big Danger: 4 Dodging Bullets (Bet Now: $3.40) is a gelding who just about looks ready to win. He was solid in the market when racing over the mile at Flemington a fortnight back where he sat on speed in a pretty solidly run affair yet gave a really good kick in the straight and looked the winner until he was bloused out wide late by Aurum Spirit. Ready to peak here and rates highly.
Long Shot: 6 Doom ‘N’ Boom (Bet Now: $7.50) worked home okay fresh at Sandown behind Grand Emperor before being a real eye catcher at Flemington when racing over 1400m and defying the track pattern to work to the line with purpose late behind Ozi Choice. Still should have upside left, but Callow rides and that last start effort was too good to ignore.
Race Three (14:45) : Allen Wicks Handicap (70) 160m:
Back Me: 3 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $1.70) looks a near good thing ehre and the fact he is still in black figures is baffling. He lengthened out like a really good horse first up at the Bool before proving that was no fluke with another dominant display at Sandown and again drew right away. He has the makings of a Group l horse and if he keeps progressing, I am sure he will reach that level. He’ll be too good for this lot.
Big Danger: 5 Movie (Bet Now: $4.40) is a hard fit mare in ripping form this time in for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. She ran over 1500m at the Valley last time out and she was ridden with some confidence by Dylan Dunn, and the mare responded because she absolutely bolted in. More depth here and more pressure on speed, but it’s hard to knock the way she is racing.
Long Shot: 8 Royal Applause (Bet Now: $7.00) was solid against the tempo behind Ballybrit two back before racing against that mare again last time out at the Valley and gee she was unlucky not to win. She got terribly held up on the turn while the winner was at full momentum and off and gone for the prize. Not sure she can win, but I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t run top three.
Race Four (15:20) : Robert Allan Plate (84) 1100m:
Back Me: 8 Very Choosy (Bet Now: $4.00) for me here. She, like most key runners here, come through the 1000m race down the straight at Flemington. She attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick when asked for the effort by Dwayne Dunn, but she couldn’t quite see it out and was nabbed late. Meets Lyuba 1.5kg better off here, draws well, maps well..tick alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 1 Lyuba (Bet Now: $2.70) is nothing flash, but she is an absolute beauty who just loves winning, as we saw in that race mentioned above because for the most part she didn’t look like picking up, but once she got a glimpse of the winning post, she surged and got the win. Draw is a touch awkward, but she rates highly regardless because she is tough.
Long Shot: 7 Grey Street (Bet Now: $12.00) has been freshened up since running in a couple of handy races during the Spring, starting off with the Subzero behind Pepperano before being outclassed in the Summoned. I think we now know that anything beyond 1200m is too far for her. I can’t find a recent jump out for her, but she gets a soft gate behind a good speed and is definitely one for exotics.
Race Five (16:00) : Ken Sturt Handicap (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Expinsive (Bet Now: $9.50) produced a decent effort to win fresh at Wangaratta in a tidy little 70 race. She sat back in the run before Ben Allen eased her to the outside and despite taking a little while to wind up, she lengthened hard late and drew clear for a soft win, keeping in mind she had a belly on her from what I saw in the mounting yard. She can easily measure up here.
Big Danger: 2 Lady Selkirk (Bet Now: $2.70) looks ready to win now after two really encouraging runs this time in. Wound up okay late fresh behind Roman Fizz at the Valley before racing over 1400m at Flemington nine days ago where she burst through at the 250m and looked the winner but her condition just gave way late when third to Hijack Hussy. Should be ready third up now from a break and is a major contender.
Long Shot: 6 Jacqui’s Joy (Bet Now: $6.00) ran also in tha Hijack Hussy race and her effort was below par given she had the 1/1 trail and looked to be going comfortably in the run. I think just put that down to not handling Flemington. Unbeaten in two runs at Caulfield and maps very well here. She can definitely bounce back.
Race Six (16:40) : Ian McLeod Christmas Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Sir Bacchus, (Bet Now: $4.40) just, on top for me here. He hasn’t raced since Cup Day down the straight where he didn’t appear all that comfortable down the course when finishing just behind the above average mare Flippant. 55 days since then, and no recent jump outs, so fitness levels are unknown, but he does fly fresh and is a very talented galloper.
Big Danger: 6 Duke Of Brunswick (Bet Now: $3.60) would be clearly on top had he drawn a gate, but out wide will make things tricky. He was very good during the Winter, racing quite consistently and was never far away from the thick end of the prize. He has form around Voodoo Lad, Ulmann and Pilote D’Essai, which is hot form. Jump out last week was outstanding to the eye, and it was in fast time, so he’s wound up to run a beauty fresh.
Long Shot: 12 I’m Ablaze (Bet Now: $26.00) is one to include at odds. He ran down the straight at Flemington in what was a very messy race but I thought his effort was more than tidy, getting back in the run before finding clear air and finishing off his race nicely. Probably outclassed to an extent, but if they go hard in front, look for this horse to ambush late.
Race Seven (17:20) : Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes 1700m:
Back Me: 2 Master Of Arts (Bet Now: $7.00) looks the big overs here at around the $7 mark. He resumed over 1400m at Flemington and was one of the best runs of the day behind Snoopy given it was very difficult to make ground yet he made up a stack to finish less than two lengths away. Only has upside off that, draws a soft gate…I’m really keen on him here.
Big Danger: 1 Kenjorwood (Bet Now: $2.80) is a grand campaigner who loves doing it the tough way and that is exactly how it panned out nine days ago at Flemington where he sat outside Mihany most of the way before that horse kicked clear in the straight, but Kenjorwood really knuckled down over the final 150m to get the win. Maps well here and looks well placed.
Long Shot: 5 Chill Party (Bet Now: $17.00) also comes through that Snoopy race and he was a horse who did make up ground also from the back when finishing sixth, beaten five lengths. Not sure he can turn the tables and beat home Master Of Arts, but his work at Flemington on Tuesday was clearly the best of the morning and he ran fast time compared to other runners over the 1000m on the Steeple grass.
Race Eight (17:55) : Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 5 (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 The New Boy (Bet Now: $8.50) looks an outstanding each-way play at $12. She ran over 1400m at Flemington last time out where he was enormous in defeat I thought given he sat wide no cover on speed in a sub 47 first 800m, which should have left him dropping out, but he kept finding until the final 100m. Work on Tuesday was very good and I think he can get over from the gate without doing much work.
Big Danger: 11 Electric Tribute (Bet Now: $8.50) comes back to 1400m after racing over the Flemington mile last start where he was given a peach steer on speed and just packed too many punches for the well fancied Galaxy Raider and co. 200m drop is no concern for me I think because it should be a rolling tempo here, and he’ll get a dream sit off that from the good gate.
Long Shot: 4 Spreadeagled (Bet Now: $9.50) was a drifter when resuming down the straight at Flemington but despite that, I thought his effort was a pass mark when finishing worse than midfield behind impressive winner Divine Mr Artie. Much better suited around the bend and he has an outstanding second up record.
BEST BET: Race Three Number 3 Plein Ciel
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 7 Alter Call
VALUE: Race Eight Number 2 The New Boy
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6
Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 7, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11
$50 Investment= 25% of the dividend if successful
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