26/12/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bet – Randwick, Summer Cup day

Boxing Day racing in Sydney will take place at Royal Randwick, with eight strong races to be run and won, highlighted by the $125,000 Group lll Summer Cup (2000m). Most runners are coming through the Villiers Stakes, so that will be the key form reference to use when betting there, because it’s the strongest.

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Race One (1:20pm) : TAB Rewards Maiden Plate 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Midas (Best Odds: $7.50) on top. The Team Cummings trained gelding made his debut at Canberra, where he made up a stack of ground to run fourth, then was well backed at Goulburn, but just couldn’t quite go on with it after getting every chance from Chad Lever. Several key advantages now for this horse here: Bigger track, home track, blinkers for the first time, and with all respect to Lever, Bowman takes the ride. Many of these have had their chance to break their maiden tag, so I’ll go with one who is on the up.
Big Danger: Danjeu (Best Odds: $8.00) made his Australian debut at Newcastle on December 6 where he sat wide throughout but still made up good ground late to run fifth, beaten just under three lengths. Steps quickly up to 1800m, comes straight to town and Blake Shinn takes the ride. He ticks plenty of boxes.
Roughie: Chucking in Refaeli (Best Odds: $19.00) as the one at odds. She has been a maiden for a little while, but she sits on the speed and tries very hard, like she did last time out at Hawkesbury when fourth to Mr Lebrock. Form looks okay, she only carries 54kg here and looks as if she’ll get a very easy lead, so perhaps she is one to include in exotics.

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Race Two (2:00pm) : James Boag’s Premium Maiden Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Liberty Island (Best Odds: $2.60) on top for me. This gelding resumed with an eye catching close up fourth to Skylimit at Canterbury before racing there again last week and again running on strongly to run second to a future stakes horse in Gold Seventy Seven. That’s the right form reference for this race, and from gate two, he won’t be as far back as normal. Clear horse to beat and one of the better bets of the day IMO.
Big Danger: Electrifyin‘ (Best Odds: $4.20) was tried as miler in recent starts, but despite good runs off the speed, the beautifully bred colt couldn’t finish it off, so blinkers off and back to 1400m looks ideal, as does the booking of Cassidy. I think Chris Waller will win, and probably quinella the race, but I trust the top tip a touch more, but this bloke should still run really well.
Roughie: Another Al (Best Odds: $8.50) started a short price favourite first up at Gosford and after being tardy away, he didn’t really pick up as expected in the straight and whacked away for fifth. Back on his home track now, doesn’t mind give in the ground and I am expecting an aggressive ride from Tye Angland.

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Race Three (2:40pm) : McGrath Real Estate Agents Maiden Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Miss Denni (Best Odds: $7.00) the one to beat here IMO. She was fantastic when making her debut against other three year old fillies, some of which had won a race, where she made up a stack of ground from the back to run sixth to stable Gossamer, beaten two lengths. Bigger track, up 150m in distance, thin race…gee she looks the one here. I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t run top three.
Big Danger: Storm Siren (Best Odds: $3.60) ran third in that Gossamer race, and she also didn’t have the best of luck. She got stuck three back on the fence, then got off coming to the turn and looked a serious chance, but couldn’t quite get clear of a pocket until about 200m from out, and at Canterbury, it’s hard to stop and build up momentum again. She did very well to run third. She’ll go close, but I liked the run of Go Denni more hence why she is on top.
Roughie: Wedding (Best Odds: $4.40) found the leap to 1580m from 1200m a bridge too far last time out when fifth to Sadler’s Lake, a horse rated as a future Group l contender. I think back to 1400m and on to a bigger track now should really suit this filly, and it’s other gun mount for Hugh Bowman, so she is a definite winning hope.

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Race Four (3:20pm) : Sportsyear Handicap (70) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Giving Unequivocal (Best Odds: $4.40) another chance here. She was well backed on Viliers Stakes Day here two weeks back, mainly because many thought she’d get a soft run close to the speed and was bred to handle the wet track…well she missed the kick and was last in a slowly run race thanks to Peace Force, plus she didn’t look 100% happy in the going, so I think getting back to a firmer surface here is a big tick, and hopefully she jumps as well as getting a fair tempo in front, one that’s good enough for her to run on.
Big Danger: Passionflower (Best Odds: $8.50) was another that wasn’t suited by the slow tempo set by Peace Force here a couple of weeks, but she did make up a bit of ground late despite that. This girl and her record suggests that she is a non winner, but she tries very hard and the form around her isn’t too bad, plus she strikes a very winnable race on her best form, so don’t leave her out of the equation.
Roughie: Xatel Ekwa (Best Odds: $21.00) can be a very frustrating mare to follow, but if the race is run to suit her, she can really pull of an electric final split. She was unlucky in her two opening runs this time in before bumping into Dublin Lass at Canterbury. She then went back to Newcastle and savaged the line late when third to Choice We Had. Big track and a good tempo will really suit her, and I think she is a cheeky knockout chance at odds if they go hard in front.

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Race Five (4:00pm) : TAB Place Multi Plate 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Unique (Best Odds: $8.00) on top for me. This bloke ran two weeks back at Rosehill over 1900m on a heavy track, running third to a highly promising horse in Astronomos. Unique looked to travel well in the run on that particular afternoon, but as soon as he was let down by Bowman, the wheels were spinning. Back to the mile, Bowman sticks, firmer track and gun gate. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Myamira (Best Odds: $5.00) performed quite admirably in two runs during the Melbourne Spring before coming back to NSW and running in the Mudgee Cup, where she can be forgiven for her failure there given the pace was a crawl and she was asked to carry 61.5kg. Tumbles 6kgs for this, bigger track and a more genuine tempo, plus the stable is flying.
Roughie: I didn’t mind Bardiya (Best Odds: $26.00) at a price last time out at Warwick Farm, and he looked the winner 150m out, but was overhauled late by Ghost Protocol, who came off his back late and surged. Bardiya generally saves his best for tracks with serious give in it, but he is in fine form nonetheless, gets the claim for Taylor Marshall, draws well and strike a winnable race.

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Race Six (4:40pm) : Summer Cup 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: I’m Imposing (Best Odds: $3.50) just picks himself here doesn’t he? An outstanding win in the Festival Stakes was followed up by a ripping second to Rudy here in the Villiers. He was held comfortably by that horse on the line, but the winner had a 3.5kg pull in the weights and an easier run. In saying that, both were suited by a very fast tempo, and I doubt I’m Imposing will get that here, so that’s the query, but he is simply low flying at present and did win this race in 2013.
Big Danger: Pelicano (Best Odds: $8.00) hadn’t raced for 12 months when resuming in the Villiers and I thought he was very good there when eighth to Rudy, beaten just under five lengths. I’m putting him as the main threat given he just appears to have so much upside compared to the rest of these who are either at their peak or coming towards the end of their prep. Only query is that he could have the ‘Second up syndrome’.
Roughie: Chucking in Ghost Protocol (Best Odds: $51.00) as the roughie. He who stormed home from the back to win on the Warwick Farm mud on December 10, powering home out wide to win in a race which was quite inferior to what he faces here. He then ran on Saturday at Rosehill and that run should completely be ignored given the leader and eventual winner absolutely walked them in front and Ghost Protocol wasn’t suited at all by that. Hopefully with at least a normal tempo, and up in trip on a bigger track, he can improve.

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Race Seven (5:20pm) : TAB.com.au Handicap (70) 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Giving Felines (Best Odds: $4.20) another chance here. Just got run off her legs first up on her home track at Newcastle before racing here over 1100m last time out where she just pulled her head off due to the very slow tempo, where they went a tick over 36 seconds for the first 600m, which is slow for an 1100m event. Back to 1000m now, several speedsters engaged here and the stable is flying at the moment. Hard to beat despite taking on the older horses.
Big Danger: Cwmbran (Best Odds: $10.00) is a former Guy Walter runner having his first run for Joe Pride. This gelding showed good ability during the Winter, winning a couple on the trot at the provincials before placing in town behind All Salsa and then a tiring run behind Private Secretary at Hawkesbury. Looked very sharp winning a recent Warwick Farm barrier trial against the likes of That’s A Good Idea and Ball Of Muscle, which looks pretty fair form for a race like this.
Roughie: Battle Street (Best Odds: $26.00) is racing well at the moment for Wayne Seelin from Wyong. Stormed home to win three back at Hawkesbury before narrowly missing out at Taree, then going back to Hawkesbury and flashing home again late for a close up third. A bit like the other two mentioned here, he will love a fast speed to run on from, he’s in a real purple patch and can handle any track rating.

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Race Eight (5:55pm) : Declaration Of War Sprint 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Looks to be a tough race to sort out. Bold Leo (Best Odds: $8.50) resumes here for Les Bridge off the back of a solid trial win last Monday at Randwick where he led all the way to win and was pushed out the final 150m. He is a very good 1200m who has been consistent in town without winning, so he looks really well placed here and appears forward enough to run well fresh.
Big Danger: Former David Hayes  runner Sanosuke (Best Odds: $9.00) had his third run for Kris Lees on Mudgee Cup Day when narrowly winning a strong class two over this distance, beating home a couple of handy types in Guepardo and Iron Blue. Don’t worry about where the form was; It is strong, plus this gelding now gates gate one, weigh relief and J A Cassidy in the saddle.
Roughie: Faverock (Best Odds: $34.00) strung together two wins to kick off this prep before failing at his next two outings, both on soft Goulburn tracks with big weight, so I am prepared to forgive him for those. I think coming back to a firmer surface here, bigger track and weight relief should spark improvement, and the trainer is very astute when sending them to town.

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Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 6, 7, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 14

Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 11, 12

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 8, 12

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.