Flemington will host their traditional Anzac Day meeting on Tuesday where the feature race is the VRC St Leger (2800m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:00) : Long Tan Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: 9 Zasorceress (Bet Now: $4.80) is a mare who is racing very well for the Weir camp. Did an amazing job to defy the bias and get close to Circular two back at Flemington before stepping up to 2000m at Rosehill where she got back in the run and made up ground late behind Assign. Now that she has had the 2000m run under the belt, she should be better off and she doesn’t mind give in the track.
Big Danger: 1 Real Love (Bet Now: $4.20) is a classy mare who is just struggling to find her best in recent times. Drops big time in grade after contesting the Coolmore Legacy last time out where she struggled on the shifty track behind Foxplay. Up to 1800m looks perfect for her and the claim means she’s very well in at the weights.
Long Shot: 8 Sadaqa (Bet Now: $9.00) had been teasing to win a race this time in but hadn’t got the job done. That was until he raced over the Caulfield mile last Saturday where he dominated from the front at the mile and with only 51kg on his back, he just kept running. Same weight here and looks the leader.
Race Two (13:35) : Flt Lt Peter Armytage Handicap 2500m:
Back Me: Siding with 5 Hans Holbein (Bet Now: $1.90) but I wouldn’t say he is a good thing. I think he has to be forgiven for his failure over 2400m at Caulfield last Saturday behind Boom Time given he did do some work in the run, the leader/winner was ridden a treat and I think the brutal Bendigo effort prior may have taken the stuffing out of him. I’ll take the gamble he is back to somewhere near his best and that is good enough to beat these.
Big Danger: 4 Angelology (Bet Now: $9.50) is an absolute ripper for the Patrick Payne stable. Always gives everything, whether it be on the flat or over the jumps. His last start came over the jumps at Oakbank in the Classic Hurdle where he sat on speed and was faultless throughout to win. His flat form prior is strong and is right down in the weights after the claim.
Long Shot: 7 Lucques (Bet Now: $10.00) ran fifth to Boom Time in that race mentioned above and I thought his effort in defeat was quite good. He is a horse who can’t sit/sprint, so the box seat run in a slow event was against him, but the key here is D Lane jumping on. Nobody rides this horse better and he has a fab record at the track/distance. Wet track is the worry.
Race Three (14:10) : William Newton VC Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Petition (Bet Now: $1.90) looks the best bet on the card. Very good filly for Team Freedman who placed in a couple of Stakes races during the Melbourne Spring. Resumed in a pretty strong Geelong maiden and despite taking time to wind up, once she put them away 200m out, she drew right away like a good horse does, beating an above average type in Sallybrook. These gallopers have bottomed out with no upside. Complete opposite for Petition. Very keen.
Big Danger: 6 Saxophone (Bet Now: $10.00) produced a lovely turn of foot to win first up before going to Ballarat where he looked all over a winner but he just failed to pick up the very talented Think Babe in a close finish. Third up now, so he should just about be at peak fitness, trained on the track and handles give in the ground.
Long Shot: 3 Apiata (Bet Now: $8.50) was the subject of a strong plunge in the South Pacific Classic at Randwick and the run for mine was inconclusive. He got badly held up/checked halfway down the straight, but when he did get clear, he didn’t exactly ping. Due to the shifty track, or just not up to it? Time will tell here.
Race Four (14:50) : Anzac Day Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Casino Fourteen (Bet Now: $4.40) rises sharply in grade but I thought there was plenty to like in his debut win at Echuca. He sat on speed and was under pressure before the turn but once Nikita got stuck in, he really kicked strongly and drew clear for a sharp win over Snitzepeg, who ran a beauty in town prior, so that form does look okay and he gets C Williams steering.
Big Danger: 2 Merchant Navy (Bet Now: $2.05) is the unbeaten colt for Ciaron Maher, winning two from two, starting off at Pakenham before being touted as a Sires/Champagne horse. Stable pulled the pin there and sent him to the weeks at Sandown over 1400m where he was very strong on the line. That tells me the Flemington 1400m is perfect and is bred to handle give in the ground.
Long Shot: 4 Malzoom (Bet Now: $12.00) had been pretty poor to kick off his career with two flops before dropping big time in grade on the Parks track at Morphettville where he was ridden a treat by Holder as he gave the gelding clear air and he found plenty to get the job done over Danger Deal, who was luckless in the VOBIS Sires, so the form reads well, and he is bred to handle give in the ground.
Race Five (15:25) : Kokoda Track Handicap (84) 1600m:
Back me: 7 Quilate (Bet Now: $4.80) was first past the post last time out over the Caulfield mile but lost the race in the Stewards Room to Ma Jones given she shifted out several horses and didn’t allow the eventual winner a clear path. Had been hot and cold previously, but in recent times, she is racing very well and finds a winnable race here.
Big Danger: 8 Typhoon Monaco (Bet Now: $4.40) has been given a month break since bolting up over 2040m at the Valley on William Reid night where she led all the way under a pretty confident and arrogant ride by Noel Callow. Sure she’s heading to Adelaide for some blacktype, so whatever she does here, she will improve, but she has residual fitness and a tough Flemington mile should be ideal.
Long Shot: 1 Single Note (Bet Now: $5.00) is a mare who is absolutely low flying at the moment for the Robbie Griffiths yard. She has won four on end, the latest coming at Sandown where she led all the way and despite being strongly challenged in the straight, she found plenty and kicked hard. Different gravy here, but she’s a mare in form.
Race Six (16:00) : VRC St Leger 2800m:
Back Me: Really surprised about the double figure odds available for 12 Penthouse Kitten (Bet Now: $10.00). Gave them a spanking to break the maiden tag at Bairnsdale before going to the 2000m on her home track at Mornington and sorry for bringing it up if you backed her. She just got into an awful spot at a critical stage and while she was held up, those in front of her were off and gone. 2800m is a query for most here, but given how well she relaxes, and her turn of foot, I don’t see the trip being an issue.
Big Danger: 3 Rock And Swing (Bet Now: $4.80) is a James Cummings colt that comes here off a Sydney prep where he ran well without winning. Ran into Jon Snow in the Tulloch before going to the Frank Packer where he looked as if he was going to be lapped but he came again to run fifth. Blinkers on first time should sharpen him up and Yendall jumps on.
Long Shot: 9 Marketplacer (Bet Now: $41.00) comes through the same Mornington meeting as Penthouse Kitten, only he contested a 2400m maiden. He has no turn of foot, so the sit/sprint scenario was against him, but he toughed it out very strongly and was good to the line and through it. He is one horse who will appreciate the trip and he looks clear overs at $41.
Race Seven (16:35) : Auckland Racing Club Trophy 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Egg Tart (Bet Now: $3.60) is my early pick for the QLD Oaks, but keep in mind she is potentially heading to the SA Oaks if everything goes to plan here. Very good filly for the Waller yard who is two from two this time in, starting off at Newcastle before going to Warwick Farm where she lumped the big weight but was far too good. Flemington mile looks perfect and third up, she should be closer to peak fitness.
Big Danger: 10 Seracena (Bet Now: $8.50) is a smart So You Think filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team who comes here off the back of a really encouraging effot at Sandown over 1300m where she got a mile back in the run but closed off with real purpose to run a close up third to the above average Hectopascal. 1600m suits and should handle the soft/heavy track.
Long Shot: 9 Star Patriot (Bet Now: $34.00) produced a ripping effort two back against the bias in the Mornington Guineas before going the Caulfield mile where again the tempo was against him and he couldn’t quite pick up behind in form filly Sword Of Light. Last time he was on a soft track, he should have beaten the Stakes performed Soviet Secret. Big improver here at odds.
Race Eight (17:10) : RSL Handicap (84) 1200m:
Back Me: Waddle your finger and hope for the best. 4 Camdus (Bet Now: $6.00) is probably the best horse in the race for mine and is proven down the straight so I will lean his way. Really good Winter/Spring prep, highlighted by a dominant win at this track/distance as well as a tough win on Moe Cup Day. Goes well fresh and the claim for Allen helps.
Big Danger: 13 Coram (Bet Now: $6.50) is a non winner, but he does get conditions to suit here I feel so this could well be his day. Been given a 24 day break since racing at Bendigo (Metro) where he got back to near last and savaged the line to run a close up third to Cannyescent. Draws to stalk Lake Como and Craig Williams booked is a good lead.
Long Shot: 1 Inspector (Bet Now: $15.00) has been up a long time but continues to race very well. Hasn’t raced for 31 days since racing in the Hareeba at Mornington where he was back and it was a day where those near the lead were advantaged. Last time he was down the straight, he was three lengths off Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket. How well does that read for this.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Egg Tart
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Petition
VALUE: Race Six Number 12 Penthouse Kitten
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11
Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 9, 12
Leg Three: 2
Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 11, 13
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