Melbourne racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday with a strong nine race card, highlighted by the $120,000 Listed Redoute’s Choice Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out fourteen metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:00pm) : Ern Jensen Funerals Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: She was very frustrating in the Spring, but I’m going to take a chance with Danestroem (Best Odds: $8.50) first up here. She was a real tease in the Spring, threatening to win, but she just couldn’t quite go on with it. She has a strong first up record and looked pretty sharp in a recent Cranbourne trial. Four lengths off Gregers first up last time in looks good enough for this.
Big Danger: Miss Promiscuity (Best Odds: $2.45) had her first run for the Hayes/Dabernig team over this track/distance a fortnight back and was well backed, and she duly saluted, albeit tiring late. Only has to rise a kilo and again looks the leader. Should prove hard to beat yet again, and second up last time in she was beaten narrowly by subsequent stakes winner I’ve Got The Looks.
Roughie: Judicial Rock (Best Odds: $26.00) resumes here for Team Corstens after a pretty good Spring which was highlighted by a close second to Politeness in the Summoned. She normally takes a couple of runs to find her best, but she has jumped out recently and looked pretty good, so with only 52kg on her back here, she is one to include in exotics.
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Race Two (12:30pm) : Charter Keck Cramer Plate 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Second Bullet (Best Odds: $3.90) is a regally bred gelding by Encosta De Lago out of one of Australias best ever mares in Private Steer. He has been pretty good in three runs this time in, and he finally put it all together to score a strong win over 2000m at Flemington last time out, aided by a gun ride from James Winks. First time at Caulfield is a slight query, but he strikes another winnable race and has found winning form now.
Big Danger: Campanology (Best Odds: $11.00) stuck to the task pretty well I thought last time out over the mile at Flemington when finishing fifth to stablemate Silverball, beaten four lengths. Silverball ran well without much luck last Saturday, so the form has held up pretty well, and now Campanology steps out to a more ideal trip. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Count Encosta (Best Odds: $10.00) was given an absolute horrendous ride by Harry Coffey last start at Morphettville and really should have won when third to Go Dreaming, beaten a half length. That horse came out and won again last Saturday. Count Encosta has been tuned up for this with a trial over the sticks last Friday, so that’s where his future lies, but Darren Weir has a great record in getting his jumpers to bob up and win these staying events, so keep an eye on him.
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Race Three (1:05pm) : No Fuss Events Handicap 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: The regally bred Comaneci (Best Odds: $8.50) makes her city debut for Danny O’Brien. The daughter of High Chaparral out of Circles Of Gold broke her maiden status in impressive fashion last time out at Kyneton, leading throughout to win comfortably. She has a stack of upside left with her, and she is best ridden with cover, so she should improve off Kyneton and prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Mrs President (Best Odds: $6.50) is low flying at the moment for the Ellerton/Zahra yard, winning three on the bounce, with the latest coming at Seymour (Metro) when leading all the way under Brad Rawiller. Looks beautifully in at the weights after the claim for Jess Payne, should roll forward again and take some beating.
Roughie: Anaphora (Best Odds: $26.00) scored a strong maiden win two back at Mornington before going to Seymour and plugging away strongly when third to Frim And Frome, an above average filly. Up to 1600m is ideal and she should have a bit of upside given she is only third up here.
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Race Four (1:40pm) : Sky High Mt Dandenong Handicap (78) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with some value in the shape of Academy Jack (Best Odds: $9.50). He has had two runs now for Darren Weir, and he really caught the eye last time out over 1100m here when seventh to Prince Harada, beaten less than two lengths. That form was franked last Saturday at Flemington, and with a likely hot speed here, he should get his chance to run on.
Big Danger: Liberty Rock (Best Odds: $26.00) has had ten months off for Peter Moody. He last ran in July last year and won at Sandown, beating home Hard Romp, an above average type who won recently at Flemington. Liberty Rock looked very sharp in a recent Caulfield jump out and he does have an outstanding fresh record. Watch market moves.
Roughie: Edgewood (Best Odds: $21.00) was excellent last time out at Sandown, coming home well from the back to run third on a dynamite leaders track, and he also got hit sideways 300m out, so his effort was strong. Wide gate is a worry, but Callow sticks and the $19 on offer just seems crazy overs.
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Race Five (2:20pm) : Thoroughbred Club Cup 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on Payroll (Best Odds: $4.20). She trialled really well prior to her dominant debut win at Sale, beating The Barrister, who has since won the Fernhill and run well in the Champagne. Payroll then went to the Breeders at Morphettville, and quite simply, she should have bolted in. She just had no luck at all. Ability wise, she has lengths on these IMO. Just needs normal luck and she’ll just about win.
Big Danger: Black Vanquish (Best Odds: $3.60) resumed down the Flemington straight and proved too good for his rivals, leading all the way after being heavily backed in betting. The runner up, My Popette, came out and won really well in the Anzac Day Stakes (1400m) last Saturday, so he has the form on the board. Definite chance.
Roughie: Cool Snitzel (Best Odds: $8.50) was well fancied on debut at Moe, starting odds on and she duly saluted, bolting in and running pretty solid in comparison to other 1100m races run that afternoon. She did trial very well prior to that, so the talent is definitely there, she now gets to her home track and shouldn’t have too much trouble getting across.
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Race Six (3:00pm) : Canaccord Genuity Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tricky race to sort out. Really surprised that Nordic Empire (Best Odds: $5.50) isn’t shorter in betting here. His effort last time out at Morphettville was enormous given he was sitting three and four wide no cover for the entire journey. He was explosive first up, but he hasn’t really gone on with it since. He gets back to his home track now and looks well in at the weights after the claim for Mick Dee.
Big Danger: During the Spring, Liberation (Best Odds: $6.00) was regarded by some experts as potentially the best three year old in Australia, but the thing between his legs is holding him back. He absolutely bolted up in front last time at Flemington, and he looked the winner with 300m to go, but he punctured late and ran seventh. Back to 1200m and back to a tighter track where leaders are suited should see him improve. Whether it improves him enough remains to be seen.
Roughie: Heza Dude (Best Odds: $9.00) sprouted wings to win first up at Pakenham before going to Seymour (Metro) and sitting wide no cover on speed when third to mudlark Lika Shadow, beaten 2.5L. Firmer track here helps, should be cherry ripe fitness wise, draws well and Duric sticks. Hard to beat.
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Race Seven (3:40pm) : Terminus Hotel Healseville Plate 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Though suited by the on pace bias, it was hard not to be impressed by the dominant win of Show A Star (Best Odds: $4.20) over 1700m at Geelong last week. Ollie shot the Gai Waterhouse runner straight to the front and gave nothing a look in, winning by a space, but as I said, there was dynamite on pace bias that afternoon. That being said, he is a talented up and comer, he’ll be out of trouble on speed and will prove tough to run down.
Big Danger: War Point (Best Odds: $3.60) tried his guts out last time out in the Gold Reef over 1600m here, but just couldn’t get Fontein Ruby and Jurasound, both Stakes winners who had a 2kg weight pull on him, so his effort was very good. Up to 2000m should suit, trained on the track and he does have placings behind Firehouse Rock and Magicool, and you know what that pair would do to this field.
Roughie: Spur On Gold (Best Odds: $14.00) ran home strongly to win first up at Mornington before going to Bendigo and again coming home from the back to run second to Ungrateful Ellen, who goes around in the Oaks at Morphettville as a live chance, so that form does read quite well here and looks suited up to 2000m.
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Race Eight (4:20pm) : Changing Places Real Estate Handicap 1440m: Form Guide
Back Me: Very interested to see Pythagorean (Best Odds: $15.00) resume here and not in Sydney. He hasn’t raced since finishing third to She’s Clean at Randwick in January. He was spelled after that, and he was one of the better triallers last Friday at Warwick Farm, running second but under a good hold. Reason why he is here is I think Waller is dodging the wet tracks in Sydney, because this horse excels on firm ground. Going with him each way.
Big Danger: Hosting (Best Odds: $8.00) was very unlucky last time out over this track/distance in the Victoria Handicap when eighth to Waterman’s Bay. He got badly held up in the straight and never really got clear until the final 75m. Draw well and is beautifully weighted after the claim for in form apprentice Jess Payne.
Roughie: Gracious Prospect (Best Odds: $11.00) is a very tough and honest galloper for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. His record here isn’t great numbers wise, but he has run a couple of crackers here at his past two, with the latest coming in the Anniversary Vase when a close up fifth to Amorino. Doesn’t look to be much speed drawn near him, so I think Duric will press forward and look to sit outside Sistine Demon, and control the race from there.
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Race Nine (4:55pm) : L U Simon Builders Handicap (90) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Landed with Pin Your Hopes (Best Odds: $8.50). He resumed in the Hareeba (1200m) and worked home well late behind Under The Louvre before going to the Anniversary Vase (1400m) and sitting wide no cover throughout when ninth to Amorino, beaten 2.5L. Big drop in grade here, draws much better and Katelyn Mallyon does ride the horse well.
Big Danger: Pyrrolic (Best Odds: $3.30) was well supported to win the Anniversary Vase but didn’t get the best of luck in the straight when sixth, beaten two lengths. Looks suited by the rise to 1600m and being third up now, he should be cherry ripe fitness wise.
Roughie: Doumaran (Best Odds: $17.00) is an international making his Australian debut for Lloyd Williams. He had pretty good form in Europe, including a win over Four Carat, who has performed well in Australia himself. Doumaran has trialled well at Cranbourne and these imports of Lloyd have run well fresh in recent times.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 9 Payroll
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 10 Second Bullet
VALUE: Race Eight Number 7 Pythagorean
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 9, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 12
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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