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The Perth Carnival warms up this Saturday at Belmont where it is Black Heart Bart Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:34) FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PK PLATE 1000m

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Back Me

I’m pretty keen to see 4 Ruthless Tycoon (Bet Now: $2.45) resume. He could be a three year old that measures up in good races during the Carnival. Debuted at Ascot in the Autumn over 1200m and gave his rivals a spanking in solid time. Recent trial win was a good piece of work and confident he goes close.

Danger

2 Spin The Knife (Bet Now: $2.45) is the obvious. Three weeks between runs since resuming over 1000m here against the older horses. Given a sweet steer by Pike just off the speed and that was the difference between winning and losing. Just needs to stretch his brilliance to 1200m.

Long Shot

1 He’s Gold (Bet Now: $10.00) is a handy three year old that resumes. He produced some solid efforts in the Autumn, highlighted by a win in the Perth Stakes before a down the track effort in the Karrakatta. He has trialled well to prepare for his return and has the runs on the board.

Race 2. (13:09) AMELIA PARK PLATE 1400m

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Back Me

1 Red Fifty Three (Bet Now: $2.30) looks a good prospect for Team Williams and confident he can make it 3/3 to start his career. Dominant win here two weeks ago. Sat on speed and there to be run down but once he was clicked up, gee he was strong and impressive. He can win this and better races.

Danger

4 Success Play (Bet Now: $13.00) is a few weeks between runs for Neville Parnham since racing over this track/distance when off the speed and spotting those in front a decent start but worked home strongly. Not sure what the stable has in mind for him but he’s good enough to take this out.

Long Shot

3 Kaymay (Bet Now: $31.00) should be suited up to 1400m. This three year old resumed over 1200m here. Sat last in the run and was never really a winning threat, but didn’t mind the finale. Think the extra ground suits and is in this race as a first four contender I’d suggest.

Race 3. (13:44) TABTOUCH - WESTSPEED (RS0MW) 1300m

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Back Me

1600m back to 1300m is a query with 4 Nick Of Time (Bet Now: $15.00), but the tempo should be genuine and he’ll get his chance. Last run was a few weeks ago here at the mile when back and closing off strongly when close up behind General Grant. I think he’s worth an each way ticket.

Danger

2 Ginger Flyer (Bet Now: $3.20) is a consistent mare for Simon Miller that will put herself on speed and try hard. Lovely front running steer from Chris Parnham saw this girl lead all the way over 1400m here two weeks ago, tiring late but holding on. Back to 1300m I like and will prove hard to get past.

Long Shot

6 Carabinier (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Paul Jordan trained gelding that had been struggling a bit to find positive form but it came at York last time out, producing good change up speed from the back to win and win well. Form prior in town was solid, and it does read well for a 0MW race.

Race 4. (14:19) CROWN PERTH (RS1MW) 1650m

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Back Me

I’ll take a chance on 4 Queen Takes King (Bet Now: $8.50), resuming for Lindsey Smith. This mare was trying to force her way into the Jericho Cup in the Autumn but was a tired horse in the Qualifier and dropped out. Trialled well leading in, drawn well and gets Pike, so she’ll take beating I’d suggest, depending on what the market does.

Danger

6 Olden (Bet Now: $11.00) is racing in good form and is hard to beat here I’d suggest. Was 2200m back to 1700m when racing here last Wednesday. Had a suck run in transit and got the inside split, dashing and just holding on. Gets a similar run this time around and is a definite winning threat.

Long Shot

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 1 Temptacion (Bet Now: $8.50). Was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1400m here two weeks back. Behind the speed and held up but overall had her chance. Gets a better set up this time around and is certainly capable.

Race 5. (14:54) SEACORP (BM72+) 1200m

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Back Me

8 All Day Session (Bet Now: $4.50) is a beauty for Ashley Maley and have to stick with him. Peach steer from Rawiller saw him win at this track/distance last Saturday, sitting off the speed before Rawiller sliced his way through the field, got clear air and attacked the line to win well. Needs luck from the draw, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

Danger

5 Crystal Spirit (Bet Now: $4.80) is flying for Team Gangemi and is hard to beat here. Ran last Saturday in the Nicopolis and his late splits were great in defeat from the back when a narrow second to Iseered Iseered. Will need luck from the draw, but certainly hard to knock the way he’s racing.

Long Shot

9 Don’s Legacy (Bet Now: $26.00) lacks the class of some of these, but the first up run was eye catching. That came two weeks back at this track/distance where he had little luck in the straight and should have finished much closer behind Come Magic. Not sure he wins, but a first four threat.

Race 6. (15:31) MORLEY GROWERS MARKET (RS1MW) 1200m

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Back Me

10 Smashing (Bet Now: $7.00) has pretty good form around her and I think it’s good enough to take this out. Ran over 1400m here at the midweeks last time out. Sat back off the speed and worked home well when fourth. Back in trip is a concern but hopefully can sit closer in the run.

Danger

1 Cockyjoy (Bet Now: $6.00) should be very much suited back to this grade. Has contested Stakes races her past couple, the latest being last Saturday in the Nicopolis when outclassed. This is her level and from the good draw, should get a suck run. Just depends what upside is left.

Long Shot

7 Absolute (Bet Now: $15.00) has the form to give this a shake if he can get luck from the wide gate. Few weeks between runs since racing here where he had run of the race and loomed to win but couldn’t finish it off when third to Sassy Trader. If he gets luck from the draw, he’ll take beating.

Race 7. (16:11) BLACK HEART BART STAKES 1200m

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Back Me

It’s hard to get away from 2 Laverrod (Bet Now: $1.70) for Team Casey. It’ll be fascinating to see what path they go with him. Does he come to Melbourne? I would assume so given he did measure up in the Autumn, winning the Hareeba and VOBIS Sprint. Trialled very well to get ready, has class…I think he’s too good.

Danger

1 Valour Road (Bet Now: $8.50) is a class runner that resumes for Simon Miller and I think can be dangerous. Successfully stretched him out to a mile last prep so I’d say the Railway is on the cards for him. How forward will he be here? Not sure off one trial, but a three time fresh winner and loves Belmont.

Long Shot

3 Massimo (Bet Now: $5.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Adam Durrant, he now finds himself with Team Gangemi. This stable are very good when it comes to a tried horse, and this horse certainly is capable of measuring up here with his best, so watch the market.

Race 8. (16:54) GLENROY CHAFF (BM55+) 2100m

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Back Me

I’m sticking with 11 Sugar Cain (Bet Now: $3.90). Team Williams mare that only runs well for Pike and while he is on her, I’ll be with her. Last couple of runs have come over 2200m here, winning two back before a solid third three weeks ago behind Picture Perfect. If the inside gate is used, she’ll take a power of beating.

Danger

6 General Grant (Bet Now: $6.50) is racing like 2100m will suit. Stephen Miller trained gelding that won two back before backing up a week later a fortnight back where he was a bit one paced and may not have handled the quick turnaround. Or, he was one paced in that he wants further, which he gets here, and brings different form.

Long Shot

4 Ouqba Ted (Bet Now: $20.00) is getting closer to peak fitness and gets a rise to a suitable trip. Last couple of runs have come over the mile where he has run okay, but not really been a winning threat. Has upside to come, gets a rise in distance and his best is certainly good enough.

Race 9. (17:30) IRON JACK (BM66+) 1400m

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Back Me

I’ll give 2 No Apology (Bet Now: $12.00) another chance. Was on his back last Saturday over the mile here where he was a bit one paced in the straight and couldn’t fire. Back to 1400m and back a bit in depth, off his previous form, that’s good enough to take this out I’d suggest.

Danger

6 Skinnen Tins (Bet Now: $26.00) is a veteran mare for Ashley Maley that is racing really well at the moment. Sat on speed when racing here a fortnight back and tried hard. Just couldn’t quite finish it off behind Avalon Bay. Likely settles in the first few again and will be around the mark.

Long Shot

8 Point Taken (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Jim Taylor trained mare that has found positive form and can certainly build off it. Wide no cover when racing in the Avalon Bay race from two weeks back and despite the hard run, she fought on quite gamely when third. Better luck this time around and she can win.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Laverrod

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Red Fifty Three

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 11 Sugar Cain

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 8

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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