25/10/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Geelong, Geelong Cup day

A bumper nine event meeting has been set down for Geelong on Wednesday for Geelong Cup Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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8 Dashing Duchess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very progressive mare for Symon Wilde that I think can measure up here. She has done little wrong in her three start career, winning her past two. Both have come over 2000m, the latest coming at Ballarat where she gave them a start and a beating in a very impressive display. She’ll eat up 2400m, maps to do no work in the run and be strong at the end. Like her a lot here.

4 Watergate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves a crack at this level. Archie Alexander has placed him perfectly in recent times, winning three on the bounce, all of which at 58 grade. Latest win was at Swan Hill on testing ground where he led throughout and he lapped up the conditions, winning by a space. Good test here, but with that racing pattern, he’ll give himself every chance.

5 Rockeby Road (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can go on with it. That win came over 2400m at Bendigo when leading throughout and he was pretty much in control throughout, with J Childs rating him to perfection in front. Billy Egan rides Andrew Noblet horses well, he will get a cheap run near the front and has the 2400m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

11 Tanto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a great gamble here for Matty Ellerton. She resumed over 1000m at The Valley where she was drawn wide so Lane dragged back to find a spot, which sealed her fate, and I thought she was very good without threatening behind Frilled. Has a much better set up this time around and maps to do no work in the run, as well as settling closer. She only runs well.

14 Grinzinger Angel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but Danny O’Brien has this filly absolutely flying. She made an absolute mess of them at Casterton before racing here where she faced stiffer opposition but she was quite dominant again and ran solid overall time. If she can overcome the gate, she’ll take a power of beating against this lot.

6 It’s Kind Of Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Tom Dabernig trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since April 10 at Sandown when on speed and seemed to have every chance, just feeling the pinch late behind Funzelle. M Zahra booked first up signals plenty of intent and if the track is on the firm side, that brings her right into the mix.

3 Boldinho (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that was a dominant winner two back at Sandown before going to the straight at Flemington where he was just on the fair side behind Electric Impulse. Back on a firmer deck with Blinkers back on, Zahra replacing Gaudray, there is enough there to say intent is premium for this guy here.

11 Pantelone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for James Cummings. Close up second at Sandown two back before having a mini break and returning at Mornington where he used the inside gate to advantage and was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Maps ideally again and is hard to beat.

8 Mr Mojo Risin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the engine under the hood to measure up. He resumed over 1200m at Kyneton where he got back and wide in the run, trying to make a sustained move, and while he was never really a winning threat, he did make up solid headway in a good return. Fitter and up in trip, dangerous if he can settle closer in the run.

4 Jennipending (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me, but not a whole lot of confidence. Both runs this time in have come at Sandown Hillside, winning fresh before a plain run last time behind Wishlor Lass, who has since won a Stakes race, and Jennipending had a $4.20 SP at Sandown against her, so that clearly reads well for a midweek 64. If he gets a drag into the race, she’ll take holding out.

10 Monarchs Brae (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Irish import for Chris Waller that resumes. How often do we see these imports improve lengths in their second Australian prep so I am keen to see how this guy goes after being somewhat of a tease in his first prep. Zahra booked I find interesting, so watch the market and see how he parades.

3 Ghetto Supastar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He is three weeks between runs since racing on the Pakenham Synthetic when a well supported favourite but just lacked the change up speed to go with them late when third to Flying Ace. Hard fit now, ideal map…knockout hope.

I am keen on 1 Waverley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) running well in both this and the Derby. He comes through the Gloaming at Randwick where he just got too far back and was never a factor, but very late, he picked up and was pretty good to and through the line. He’ll eat up 2200m to my eye and this looks one of the weaker editions of this race so I think despite being a maiden, he’ll take beating.

3 Dulcet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the Waller polish and is heading in the right direction. Market said he was a moral when racing in a Sale maiden over 1740m and despite settling back, he peeled out and was much too good for a pretty average bunch. Bred to eat up the trip and the depth here is thin as well. Hard to beat, but do I want to back him? Not at the short odds.

4 Kosgei (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. He was very good in his opening two runs for the prep before going to the Super Impose at Flemington where he got back and was tracking up nicely but found nothing when Dee asked for the effort. Off the prior efforts, I think he is good enough to be around the mark.

2 Romantic Charm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the travelling companion for Romantic Warrior but he still has good talent in his own right and enough to win this. He has solid form lines from Hong Kong, not to the extent of the quality of his stablemate, but certainly good enough for a benchmark 70, and I thought his work at The Valley on Monday alongside Romantic Warrior was quite good.

3 Falcon Of Malta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for Michael Moroney. He comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Sep 13 at Sandown when leading throughout over 1800m and credit to him, he was there to be beaten, but he found plenty and was quite strong to the line in winning. Should find the front comfortably and if he dictates, he’ll take running down.

8 New York Hurricane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a little while for Liam Howley but is flying. Showed good ticker late to win at Geelong two back before going to The Valley where he was wide no cover throughout but kept finding the line and was game when second to Sirius Black. If he has taken no harm from that last start, he’s right in the mix here.

First Immortal should have won the Bart Cummings, no question, but you can make a case that 7 Virtuous Circle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should have been right in the finish. Found backsides throughout in the straight yet still was good to the line. He’s well and truly back on track. Already secured a start in the Melbourne Cup, but I think his last couple of runs indicate he is ticking along beautifully and can certainly take this out.

13 First Immortal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the clear threat. I was keen on him in the Bart Cummings and I think most would agree that he should have won. He was three wide no cover throughout and did a mighty job in defeat to stick on like he did when second to Future History. If that run hasn’t busted him, he has to rate as one of the hardest to beat.

You can dare to dream and that is what connections are doing with SA raider 17 The Map (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He was plain two back at Murray Bridge but backed up a week later at Morphettville, stepped up to 2500m and she gave her rivals an absolute spanking. Can she win? I am saying no, but a truly run 2400m will be perfect for her and she can pinch a first four spot.

3 Meridius (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems a big price here I feel. Kennewell/Yeomans trained four year old that resumes and returns to racing as a gelding. I think it’ll be the making of him as a racehorse because he moved very nicely in a recent jumpout at Cranbourne, closing off with real purpose under minimal riding. 1200m is on the short side but in terms of quality, he has a bit on these, so I’ll take the punt on the stable having him ready to go.

4 Sandpaper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Snitzel for James Cummings that comes here second up after resuming at The Valley where he pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial so forgive and forget the run. Drawn out so will get clear air from the outset this time around and D Lane replacing J Kah…enough said. Hard to beat.

6 Lafargue (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes back to Victoria after a hit-and-run mission at Rosehill where he had a suck run in transit behind the speed and had his chance, just not quite finishing the race off behind Super Helpful. He has run well at Geelong previously, maps ideally once again and I do think back to 1200m is a big tick. Knockout hope.

6 Von Hauke (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out. Cliff Brown has this gelding going really well at the moment, coming through the Paris Lane at Flemington where he was back in what was pretty much a barrier trial, but I thought the way he finished the race off, his effort was an absolute beauty behind Tamerlane. Back to this level, up to 1500m, if he’s within range on the turn, I think he’ll be too good.

3 Rogue Rocker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Shane Jackson and rates highly. He comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Sep 2 at Caulfield when back near last in the run and was a real eye catcher late in the piece behind the very much in form Rheinberg. Break between runs should be fine for him and if the inside gate is used to advantage, he only runs well.

Fitter and up to 1500m are two big ticks for the Peter Gelagotis trained 1 Typhoon Harmony (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He resumed over 1300m at Bendigo when on speed throughout and was there to win but being first up, condition just gave way late in the piece when fourth to Stripped Black. Better set up this time around, more kind map and with upside, he’s in the mix.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 6 Von Hauke

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Virtuous Circle

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Meridius

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Two: 7

Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 8, 13

Leg Four: 6

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