Flemington will continue its heavy winter workload this Saturday with another bumper nine event card. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:55) : Murray Cox Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 11 Red Velvet Swing (Bet Now: $12.00) looked sharp in a jump out here prior to resuming on the Pakenham Synthetic where she was an alarming drifter in betting and the fluc was spot as she finished fourth. She can improve sharply on the turf and this isn’t a strong race.
Big Danger: 3 Loch Oir (Bet Now: $4.80) debuted at the Bool and though the depth wasn’t strong, the win was sharp and the time was alright. Steps up a fair bit here, but he is likeable and should be a threat.
Roughie: 9 Stately Boy (Bet Now: $12.00) debuted on the Pakenham Synthetic and tried very hard when a close up second to Savvy Belle. Should take good improvement off that and prove tough to beat.
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Race Two (12:30) : Henry Bolte Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: 1 Kenjorwood (Bet Now: $2.35) looks one of the better bets on the program. He did a power of work in the Winter Championship Final and really did a remarkable job to finish as close as he did when third to Iggimacool. Draws much better here, so well weighted after the claim, looks the leader…I think he just wins.
Big Danger: 2 Onpicalo (Bet Now: $5.00) attempted to lead all the way in that race mentioned above and he was very brave in sitting on speed and just feeling the pinch late when running third. Not sure he’ll cross Kenjorwood here, and he meets that horse 1.5kg worse off here, but he is hard fit, in form and should get a cosy trip near the tempo.
Roughie: 4 Zebrinz (Bet Now: $5.50) was a real eye catcher late in the same race, sitting near the back in the run and closing off strongly late to run sixth, beaten just under four lengths. Gives the impression 1800m will be no issue and he draws to get the dream sit off Kenjorwood. Knockout chance.
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Race Three (13:05) : K A Morrison Handicap (78) 2000m:
Back Me: 4 Name The Day (Bet Now: $2.25) has been given a four week let up since racing over the mile here where he absolutely bolted to the front at the top of the straight under triple wraps but he couldn’t get the job done and had to settle for a close up second to Pin Your Hopes. Up to 2000m off a break is a concern, but I’ll trust Ciaron Maher.
Big Danger: 2 Firehouse Rock (Bet Now: $4.50) comes through a country series final at Sale where he sat off speed before getting into the clear and running on late when a close second to First Course. That form really doesn’t fill me with confidence for a Saturday race at Flemington but the run prior was very good and Yendall takes over.
Roughie: 1 Straight Jacket (Bet Now: $8.00) should control the tempo here and looms as a threat. He contested the Country Cup Final here and was satisfactory behind Killarney Kid. If he can pinch a cheap sectional here, he’ll take some beating.
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Race Four (13:43) : Wilson Medic One Rising Stars Final (84) 1800m:
Back Me: 1 Yulong Baby (Bet Now: $2.70) ran over 1700m at Caulfield three weeks back where she was well backed to win the race and just missed when second to Pin Your Hopes. Third up now, so she should be at peak fitness, draws well and the big spacious surroundings of Flemington will be ideal.
Big Danger: 4 Ma Jones (Bet Now: $4.60) was completely luckless two back at the Valley before going to Morphettville where she looked an absolute moral but ended up getting beat. I’ll put that down due to the fact she was in the worst ground and she was near the speed, which is well and truly against her pattern. She can bounce back sharply.
Roughie: 2 Khutulun (Bet Now: $19.00) ran in the First Course race mentioned earlier where she got back in the run and couldn’t really let down strong enough with the big weight when running third, beaten three lengths. The 3kg claim for Beau Mertens is a big tick and though she is a bit of a money muncher, this is the sort of race she could be competitive in.
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Race Five (14:20) : TAB/ATA Trainers’ Trust Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Kinschachi (Bet Now: $4.00) took on the older mares a tick over two weeks ago at Sandown where she was wide no cover on speed and gave a really good kick but just had no answer to the brilliant finishing burst of Baby Don’t Cry. She should be close to peak fitness now and looks a major contender.
Big Danger: 7 Four Sisters (Bet Now: $4.50) ran over 1300m at Sandown a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly but couldn’t quite get the job done when a narrow second to Deal With It. She looks to have good upside and she will be strong late.
Roughie: 5 Syrahbeel (Bet Now: $12.00) comes back home after being very impressive in her last two wins, on the Pakenham and Geelong synthetics respectively. Form on the turf was pretty solid prior and she is in ripping form.
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Race Six (15:00) : Bruce Gadsden Handicap (90) 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Rich Jack (Bet Now: $7.50) comes through the Sprint Final here a fortnight back when attempting to lead all the way and just feeling the pinch late when running fourth. If he gets a cheaper time on speed, he is a tough nut to get past.
Big Danger: 7 Magnus Reign (Bet Now: $17.00) ran sixth in that Sprint Final and I thought his effort was more than commendable. He has been a bit of a tease this time in, so it’s getting close to D-Day but he has the Weir polish.
Roughie: 6 Nicoscene (Bet Now: $22.00) comes here after failing first up at the Valley behind Voodoo Lad, who ran a beauty recently at Flemington. Given a break since that run, and if he finds his best form, he’d take some beating here.
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Race Seven (15:40) : Bitalli Handicap 2500m:
Back Me: 7 Backbone (Bet Now: $6.50) comes back to Victoria after running on the Parks track last time out where he was an alarming drifter in betting and that fluc was spot on when finishing down the track. He is a dry tracker, so if he gets conditions to suit here, he can improve sharply.
Big Danger: 2 Bold Sniper (Bet Now: $3.00) ran in the Banjo Patterson Final here two weeks ago where he sat on speed and fought on well but was simply no match for the impressive winner Master Of Arts. He is racing more tractably now which is a big plus and he will take some beating.
Roughie: 1 Au Revoir (Bet Now: $9.00) ran over 2000m at Caulfield three weeks back and was okay without setting the world on fire behind Longeron. Last time he raced at Flemington, he was six lengths off Spillway in an Australian Cup. Brings that here and he’d go very close.
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Race Eight (16:20) : Flemington Event Staff Handicap (90) 1600m:
Back Me: 12 Jerilderie Letter (Bet Now: $2.15) comes through the Silver Bowl Final here a fortnight back where he sat back in a slowly run race and that really sealed his fate, especially with the 60kg impost. Tumbles down to 54kg now and he should be at peak fitness. Extremely hard to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Victory Downs (Bet Now: $6.50) ran on the Parks track a couple of weeks back where he was smashed in betting and produced a brilliant finish from last to win. Stable doesn’t mind sending them to Melbourne and they rarely leave emptyhanded, and Dunn steers.
Roughie: 1 Lord Durante… (Bet Now: $7.50) I really have no idea what I will do if he wins. He has been a nightmare to follow this time in, being an absolute tease. He ran last Saturday over 1400m at Caulfield and worked home okay out wide behind the impressive winner Ulmann. Up to the mile will suit and there are no known leaders here, so I hope Gauci rolls forward.
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Race Nine (16:55) : VRC Recognition Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 5 Runson (Bet Now: $5.00) was solid here two back behind Rich Charm before going to the Geelong Synthetic where he took on the older horses yet just spanked them and won with ease, and gave the track record a nudge. Lot to like about him and I’m happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 1 Badajoz (Bet Now: $6.00) has been sent to Melbourne after producing a couple of impressive performances in New South Wales, culminating with a super win at Randwick. Comes here with upside and should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: 9 Truculent (Bet Now: $20.00) resumed on the Pakenham Synthetic a tick over two weeks back in a small field where he sat near the tempo and proved too good for him. Last time in he contested some quality three year olds, so obviously he must show the stable a fair bit and he comes straight to town.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Kinshachi
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Kenjorwood
VALUE: Race One Number 11 Red Velvet Swing
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 6, 7, 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 6, 9
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