23/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, William Reid Stakes day

The Valley will conduct a ten event program on Saturday for William Reid Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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William Reid Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the William Reid Stakes

1 Marquess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs for James Cummings since sitting wide no cover here and that hard run probably just told late in the piece behind Welwal but it was a meeting where sitting wide was no real disadvantage so for mine, he’s nearing D-Day and potentially last chance territory here.

5 Aristonous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 2000m for Annabel Neasham. He ran over the mile at Flemington three weeks ago where he bumped into a potential star, Another Wil, and while he was safely held, he was far from disgraced in defeat. That was his first run since Jan 27 so with good room for improvement and up in trip, he’ll take beating.

3 Up And Under (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improving type for Chris Waller and can certainly take this out. Forgive the run at Flemington a few weeks back. It was very hard to make ground in the circle races and given he was back near last in the run, he just couldn’t get involved behind Aramco. Think if he can settle closer, he’s dangerous.

6 Sassy Jenni (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice filly for Team Hayes. Debuted with a strong track/distance win three weeks ago, leading throughout and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found under pressure to fend them off and was too good in a nice win at start one. Good racing style, 1200m lead in, petrol in the tank…hard to beat.

2 Dancing Storm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a gelding on the up. Team Jolly brings him over from SA and comes here off the back of a first up win in the SA Magic Millions 2YO Classic, knuckling down strongly from off the speed to win and win well. The end of 1200m should be fine and for mine, this isn’t an overly deep race, so he commands respect.

4 Bittercreek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key chance. Team Corstens trained son of Snitzel that debuted a few weeks back in the Talindert where he was just off the speed throughout and he tried hard but couldn’t quite finish the job but that said, he was still solid enough in defeat behind Aardvark. Think he has to be rated as one of the key prospects.

3 Yarrawonga (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the leader and from there, he takes running down. Just forgive the run at the track/distance last time, settling on speed and he gave a decent kick but couldn’t quite see it through, tiring late behind the in form Think N Fly. He looks like he will get control here and in front, will be hard to get past.

1 Strawberry Rock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Ciaron Maher since racing over 2000m at Flemington where he was very one paced when asked for the effort but he stayed on and was solid enough in defeat behind Aramco. Like him up to 2500m and has run well at the track/distance previously. One of the leading contenders.

5 Akrotiri (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive stayer for Cindy Alderson that comes there after racing at this track/distance last time out when far from disgraced in defeat behind Think N Fly. This isn’t a deep race so he doesn’t need to improve much to be around the mark.

7 For Valour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth an each way ticket in an open race. GaiBott trained gelding that resumed down the straight at Flemington over 1200m when on speed and just felt the pinch late in the piece behind Big Watch. Up to 1500m, should find the front and if he gets some form of control, he’ll take getting past.

1 Belle Plaisir (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating against these. This mare comes through a 1400m race at Flemington from three weeks ago where she got into a decent spot off the speed and she tried hard but had to settle for a third to the in form Arran Bay. Fitter and up in trip, off that last start, she is one of the leading chances.

9 Reo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a capable mare for Richard Laming. She was big odds when resuming three weeks ago over 1400m at Flemington where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, she did work home with real purpose late in the piece behind Arran Bay. Good improvement to come and up in trip, she can take this out.

9 Roll On High (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly I have plenty of time for. Moody/Coleman trains this girl, who resumed at Group l level in the Surround at Randwick where she was one of the better runs in defeat after sitting back and wide, finishing off strongly behind Tropical Squall. Much better suited here I feel and off the return, she is going to take beating.

4 Running By (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing really well for Ciaron Maher and appeals. She comes through the Matron from a fortnight back at Flemington where she was put into a lovely spot near the speed and she tried her guts out but just found one better in Eternal Flame. Hard to knock the way she is racing and should be around the mark.

6 Foxy Cleopatra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a hard mare to follow/trust with confidence. I have been on her back pretty much all this prep, and she has run well, but hasn’t won, so from a punting perspective, she has been disappointing, the latest run being a third to Eternal Flame in the Matron. if she gets ridden positively, she can take this out.

Gee I am a fan of 6 Vivy Air (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and I reckon she could be an absolute good thing for the SA Oaks. She resumed two weeks ago over 1400m at Flemington, taking on the boys, and she should have won. She got badly held up at times before eventually getting clear and savaged the line late, just missing out on the win. If she handles The Valley fine, then she’s going to take holding out.

4 Mollynickers (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This girl was solid fresh in The Vanity before going to The Kewney where she got into a decent spot off the speed and loomed to win. She just couldn’t quite get the job done when third to stablemate Autumn Angel. Third up, hard fit, she appeals.

2 Certainly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented filly from New Zealand for Mark Walker that comes down under off the back of a Group lll win at Ellerslie where she didn’t beat much but was impressive. 1600m is a slight query but maps perfect and does have a touch of quality. Knockout hope.

1 Apulia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks on track for the Derby, whether it be be Sydney or Adelaide. He resumed in the Australian Guineas where he got back and wide in the run and while he was never a threat, he did make up headway and was pretty good late in the piece behind Southport Tycoon. Fitter and up in trip, there is improvement to come and he will be strong late.

4 Verdad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in pretty solid order for Griffiths/De Kock. He ran in the Australian Guineas where he had a suck run in transit from the inside gate and tried hard but just lacked the quality to go with them late in the piece behind Southport Tycoon, beaten 3.65L. Hard fit now and he does have a touch of class so don’t dismiss him.

14 Into You (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly that I think has an engine under the hood. She comes through The Kewney where she wasn’t able to use the inside gate to advantage and got a mile back but I really liked the way she found the line late in the piece behind Autumn Angel. She’s flying and is in with a serious shout.

5 Imperatriz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a gun mare and if everything is all sweet after the Newmarket, she has this lot covered surely. Her run in the Newmarket was enormous, sitting on speed and was a tad keen. She tried her guts out but had no answers late for Cylinder. Back to WFA, back to her favourite track…good luck beating her.

6 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely humming for Ciaron Maher. She has been close up and strong in two runs back, first up in the Lightning before going to the Newmarket where she got just off the speed and worked home without threatening. She does tend to get better as the prep goes on and hard fit, she appeals.

7 I Am Me (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be absolutely humming for this race I feel. Ciaron Maher trained mare that resumes, having not raced since the Rupert Clarke when near the speed and seemingly had her chance but she stayed on and was sound in defeat behind Magic Time. Trial work leading in has been impressive, notably the latest trial when leading throughout, and I think she’ll be very strong at the end.

4 Gumdrops (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat for Price/Kent. The Crockett Stakes winner resumed down the straight at Flemington where she was nearer the inside of the pack, which is never ideal down the straight, but she stuck on and was solid in defeat behind stablemate Hedged. Fitter and back to the scene of the crime of her Crockett win, she is clearly hard to beat.

6 Inhibitions (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented filly for James Cummings that does tend to save her best for The Valley. She resumed down the straight at Flemington over 1100m where she was a bit flat footed when the sprint went on but she picked up and was good late when a close up fourth to Diamond Decorator. Fitter and up in trip, back to her pet track, she’s a leading contender.

7 Diamond Decorator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to get past. This filly has won her past two, leading throughout each time and showing good ticker late to win, the latest being down the straight a few weeks ago at Flemington when out of tickets late but had enough in hand. She’ll jump, run and take beating.

15 Extratwo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me in the get out. Ciaron Maher trained mare that comes here several weeks between runs since winning at this track/distance where she didn’t beat much but the manner in which she put them away was impressive. She is a fruit loop upstairs but clearly has the ability and strikes a winnable race.

2 Grand Impact (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the more fascinating runners on the card. Price/Kent trained galloper that resumes, having not raced since the 2022 Coolmore Stud when down the track behind In Secret. He’s had a long time off due to injury but with three jumpouts under the belt, the grounding is there to say he’ll run well fresh, but watch the market.

1 Zethus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has seen better days but he won’t know himself in a race like this. He comes through the Abell when doing too much work from the wide gate and was never a factor. He gets a better map this time around, he is in well after the claim…dangerous for sure at odds.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 9 Rol On High

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Marquess

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 For Valour

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 12, 13, 14

Leg Two: 5, 6

Leg Three: 4, 6, 7, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 8, 15

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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