The SA Racing Carnival continues to simmer along this Saturday at Morphettville where it is Irwin Stakse Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out ten metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out five metres from the Winning Post-2000m; Out two metres from the 2000m-1800m; Out five metres from the 1800m-1200m.
Race One (12:58): Schweppes Oaks May 6 Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 1 Tabbing (Bet Now: $4.40) is a tough youngster for the O’Conner camp. Won well over 1200m on the Parks track before dropping back to this track/distance where he sat on speed and fought on so well but was nabbed late by Kronos. Wide gate is the concern, but I think he has enough speed to come over.
Big Danger: 10 Mintha (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Redoute’s Choice filly on debut for the Tony McEvoy yard. She trialled very well behind stablemate Kid Flash in the Spring before being tipped out. Trialled well recently and does look ready to go on debut. Had she drawn a better gate, I’d just about have her on top.
Long Shot: 9 Lead Foot Lacey (Bet Now: $12.00) is a filly on debut for the in form Chris Bieg yard and I think she represents value at double digit odds. Trialled up well behind Mintha, though beaten six lengths, but I think she had plenty of room for improvement and stable does know what to do with youngsters. Draws a tricky gate, but I think she is one to include for sure.
Race Two (13:33) : ATA Celebrates 50 Years Handicap (70) 1100m:
Back Me: Siding with 4 Rock Status (Bet Now: $4.80) here in a really open contest. He had confident market support when resuming over 1000m three weeks back on the Parks track and despite some hairy moments, gee once he got clear air he really savaged the line and won like a good horse, which he has promised for a while. Hopefully he can go right on with it.
Big Danger: 2 Galaxy Gazer (Bet Now: $18.00) is a handy galloper that is first up for the Macdonald/Glutyas team. He ran quite well during the Winter, but in three runs during the Spring, he failed to flatter and overall was quite disappointing. No trials, but when he is right, he is certainly up to these. One to watch for sure.
Long Shot: 1 Aurelius Hero (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Victorian visitor who was known as a bit of a non winner but he has put it together in recent times, winning two of his last three, the latest being a dead heat win at Ballarat when charging home late under talented apprentice Lucinda Doodt. The claim for Aitken is a big tick here and the speed looks hot, so he’ll get his chance.
Race Three (14:08) : Darley Goodwood May 20 Handicap (82) 1200m:
Back Me: How can you go past 1 Counter Pulse (Bet Now: $3.00). This four year old has been outstanding this time in for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he copped pressure on speed and looked in a bit of trouble but Lindop lifted her over the line to win. Raquel Clark goes on and she is a very good rider, plus her claim is a big tick.
Big Danger: 7 Schism (Bet Now: $3.40) looked all over a winner to nab Counter Pulse in that race mentioned above. Jamie Kah could not have ridden the mare any better and for the most part she looked the winner, but Counter Pulse packed too many punches. She actually meets that horse 1.5kg worse off, which is the worry, but still, has to go in as a threat.
Long Shot: 10 Double Pockets (Bet Now: $18.00) resumed in the same race as the pair mentioned above and I thought his effort in defeat was quite good. Got back in the run in a race dominated by those near the speed but he made up really good ground late in the piece. Goes well second up and if they do go hard in front, this is the horse to watch late.
Race Four (14:43) : Suzi Reynolds Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Model Dragon (Bet Now: $3.70) is a really good mare for the Stokes yard who has come back in super order. Last start win was dominant, aided by a lovely ride in the run by Tourneur. She should be at peak fitness here, the worry is the gate. Where does she get to? I’ll leave that to Claridge.
Big Danger: 3 Sullivan Bay (Bet Now: $3.20) is a talented mare for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who hasn’t raced for four weeks since racing at Mornington where she was given a lovely steer near the pace and kicked on strongly. Break between runs looks okay for her and looks targeted for the Carnival. Key threat.
Long Shot: 6 Sahara Chill (Bet Now: $8.00) has been really good in two runs for the Kane Harris stable after formerly being with Greg Bennett. Ran four weeks back at Mornington where she defied the bias and savaged the line to just miss out on picking Sir Mask in a race that did look a bit stronger than what she faces here. $9 and better looks a great price.
Race Five (15:23) : UBET SA Derby Day May 13 Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: 3 Royal Rumble (Bet Now: $3.20) clearly on top for me here. This bloke ran over the mile here a fortnight back and was given a lovely ride just off the speed by Lindop and once he was presented clear air, he put them away quite quickly and won with a touch of dominance on the line. Can only see the extra furlong helping and I think he is the safe way to go here.
Big Danger: 8 Ferro Nero (Bet Now: $11.00) is a regular SA visitor who is working towards another win and he gets a great chance here. Ran over 2000m at Ballarat last time out where he did plenty of work from the gate and tried hard but had to settle for second to Lord Fandango. That hard 2000m effort should see him cherry ripe for this 1800m assignment.
Long Shot: 7 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $12.00) is stepping back in trip but I think he can definitely be a threat here. He sat near a hot speed over 1950m on the Parks track last time out and really had every right to drop out but he fought on and hit the lead for a brief period before being swamped late. Needs a much softer trip to show his best, but if that does eventuate, he’s right in this.
Race Six (16:03) : Hughes Chauffeured Limosuines RN Irwin Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Petits Filous (Bet Now: $4.60) is a high class mare for Ciaron Maher that trialled up very nicely here prior to resuming over 955m at the Valley where she was given a peach from Nolen and the ride probably deserved the win, but given it was her first run in nearly a year, her condition just gave out late. She should come on from that, and really, she is just thrown in at the weights. Keen.
Big Danger: 1 Illustrious Lad (Bet Now: $2.90) is the class runner engaged here and is here to have a crack at the Goodwood. Ran a beauty in the Lightning but then flopped in the Newmarket and William Reid. He is better than that and the big key for him here is that he is an absolute bomb when produced fresh.
Long Shot: 2 Casino Wizard (Bet Now: $8.00) has been one of the form gallopers in SA in recent times, the latest coming in the Manihi Classic where he worked home from the back with real purpose to finish a close up seventh, beaten under a length. WFA probably isn’t his go, but the small field helps and they should go quick here.
Race Seven (16:43) : Schweppervescence Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: I think this race is all about 5 Savvy Dreams (Bet Now: $4.80). If she has handled the trip over from NZ, I think she just wins. Star filly who has run some cracking races during the Autumn, including a couple of outstanding efforts behind Bonneval, the best three year old filly going around this part of the world. Very keen.
Big Danger: 1 Kenedna (Bet Now: $3.70) is the filly up and running and is the one to beat in terms of the locals. She has been up a long time but continues to run ripping races, the latest coming a fortnight back in the Laelia where she looked in awful trouble but the splits come her way and she attacked the line to win. Remains at the mile which is ideal and she should take some beating.
Long Shot: 3 Smart As You Think (Bet Now: $15.00) is a horse I’ve touted to win the SA Oaks since her first up run but I thought she was in the spelling after the gutbuster that was the Vinery Stud. But she is in work still off a freshen up for this, but I am tipping her to run a beauty before the Oaks. Very interested to see what she does here.
Race Eight (17:22) : Projection Graphics Redelva Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Benz (Bet Now: $5.50) is a very smart gelding for the Gordon Richards camp who resumed in the Zeditave at Caulfield where he had confident market support and ran right up to that with a dominant win in subsequent hot form race. Has since been freshened up and trialled up well recently. Keen to see what he does here.
Long Shot: 6 So You Too (Bet Now: $8.50) has been excellent in two runs back from a spell for the Macdonald/Gluyas yard. Ran over 1300m three weeks ago and finished off well late but had to settle for a narrow second to Another Coldie, who failed with excuses last Saturday. Back to 1100m is interesting, but he will be strong late.
Big Danger: 13 Arleigh (Bet Now: $26.00) is a talented Arrowfield filly for the Stokes yard who ran over 1250m on the Parks track three weeks back where she had the charmed run behind the speed and once she presented, it was game over and she careered away. It will be very interesting to see how she measures up here.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Savvy Dreams
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 7 Petits Filous
VALUE: Race Eight Number 2 Benz
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 6, 7
Leg Three: 5
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$50 Investment= 47.61% of the dividend if successful
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