22/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick

Easter Monday racing in Sydney heads to the Kensington track at Randwick. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Bigger fish to fry for 1 Czarson (Bet Now: $2.60) but I think class gets him home here. WaterBott trains this colt, who is heading towards the JJ Atkins. Had a three run prep in the Summer, the third run being a gutsy fourth to Exhilarates in the Magic Millions. Dodged the Slipper with the Winter in mind and his two trials leading in have been quite good. Class gets him home.

6 Moreno (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Charm Spirit colt on debut for the Chris Waller stable. This bloke has had three career trials to date, the latest trial coming two weeks back at Rosehill when fourth to Human Nature, sitting off the speed and going about his business under no pressure. Gets gate one and has shown gate speed, so can take advantage of that and prove hard to beat.

13 Le Figaro (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Matty Dunn filly by Dream Ahead having her first start. Trialled very well back in December before being spelled. Trialled under two weeks back on the Warwick Farm Synthetic and looked pretty good to the eye. Very interesting she debuts in Sydney because I’m sure the stable could have found an option closer to home. Definitely one to watch.

1 Agassi (Bet Now: $2.10) drops a fair bit in grade for the Anthony Cummings stable after contesting the Carbine Club last time out when attempting to lead all the way and fighting on okay but just not having the class to finish his race off behind Ringerdingding. Significant drop in grade/depth this time around but is paying the price by going up big time in weight. But that form clearly reads well for this.

11 Aurman Zou (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who is still a maiden but is showing promise. Ran over the mile at Gosford (Metro) last time when tucked in behind the speed and battled away well in defeat behind Achondrite. Lands the back of Agassi I would expect and I’m anticipating a pretty moderate tempo, so he’ll get his chance I’d say.

8 Purton (Bet Now: $10.00) has done a pretty good job this time in for the Brad Widdup stable. Two wins from four runs this prep, the latest coming at Orange when on speed under Reith and finishing best in a driving go to the line. That was a hard mile against the older horses which should hold him in good stead for this and draws well. Knockout chance if he can land near the front.

10 Moccasin Miss (Bet Now: $5.50) looks a key threat. Gary Portelli trains this mare, who resumed over 1100m at Wyong when taking advantage of the inside gate to land the box seat and tried hard when beaten narrowly by a progressive galloper in Trumbull. I think she’s much better when ridden cold and with the claim for Robbie Dolan, she gets in very well and meets Medovina much better at the weights from a clash here back in October, and her second up form is much better than what the form guide reads.

7 Medovina (Bet Now: $5.00) is a daughter of Exceed And Excel resuming for the James Cummings team. Hasn’t raced since late last year at Warwick Farm when racing like a tired horse behind impressive winner The Art Of The Bar. Just brings one soft trial leading into her return, but looked pretty good I thought and is a mare who can sprint well fresh. Market will be the guide.

Bit of a nothing race this and can’t say I want to dive in from a betting POV, but for the sake of betting, I think 4 Difficult To Get (Bet Now: $9.50) is the value. Has been thereabouts right throughout this prep without winning, the latest coming at Gosford (Metro) when on speed and just feeling the pinch late when fourth to Queens Ablaze. Looks the leader here, senior jock on and track pattern usually suits those on speed/rail.

Gee I think the $17 opening price for 3 What Could Be (Bet Now: $17.00) is just silly odds. Admittedly, this is harder than last time, but clear air in that race and he wins for mine. Most unlucky and is racing as if further will suit, so 1300m looks a big tick and sitting off a good speed, drawn outside horses, with Robbie Dolan on, gee I think he’ll run a big race and for mine is clear overs.

The A1 version of 9 Kolding (Bet Now: $2.00) here and he’ll be winning but it’s unknown as to how well he’s going and near odds on is just too short to back. Thought he had every chance last time out over 1500m at Rosehill when fourth to Sondelon. Freshened up, gelded and I thought the trial was just fair behind Plague Stone. Wide gate too, so likely goes back to last…he can win, but gee he’s short enough.

7 Budderoo Knight (Bet Now: $23.00) has already had good specking at longer odds and that’s not surprising really. Resumed in the race What Could Be contested, the race won by Colombina, and this veteran didn’t have much luck in the straight and the run was hard to read given he didn’t really have clear air to let down. But interesting there’s already been market support.

5 Manigone (Bet Now: $1.75) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who was far from disgraced in the Tulloch behind Angel Of Truth before going to Gosford (Metro) last Wednesday where he absolutely bolted in and made a mess of them, albeit not up against much, but the way he charged to the line at the end of 1900m, 1800m here will be fine and is a definite chance.

I think firmer footing will be a big tick here for the John O’Shea trained 4 King’s Peak (Bet Now: $5.50). He has raced on wet tracks at his past few runs and has run well, the latest seeing him share the spoils at Kembla, but his previous form saw him perform much better on top of the ground, which is what he should get this time around. Avdulla on, 1800m should be okay, leading chance.

6 Highway (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Steve Englebrecht trained gelding who could be a definite knockout chance at value. He’s had two runs back from a spell, both coming at Kembla. First up was good behind Restrained before contesting the King’s Peak race mentioned above when a mile out of his ground but finished off well. From gate one, he can sit closer in the run and can definitely win.

10 Pop Girl (Bet Now: $4.20) on top. John O’Shea trains this filly, who hasn’t raced since breaking the maiden tag over the mile at Wyong when near the speed and proving too good for her rivals, and there has been two winners from that race. Loved her trial alongside the well performed Tangled and while 1400m is probably short of her best, she looks sharp enough based on the trial.

1 Guipure (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Domesday mare resuming for the James Cummings stable. This mare can be hot and cold at times, but at her best, clearly up to beating these. Hasn’t raced since November 23 at the Valley when down the track and coming to the end of a long prep behind Shrouded In Mist. Can sprint well fresh and has had a couple of quiet trials for her return. I think the double figures is value.

3 Waruna (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Kris Lees trained mare who had trialled up enormous prior to resuming in the Wyong Provincial Qualifier where she wasn’t 100% happy on the wet track and just copped too much pressure on speed behind stablemate Turnberry. That heat provided the winner of the Final, so that reads well, and she’s won on this track previously. Can bounce back for sure.

I’ll take a chance on the Jean Dubois trained 5 Julian Rock (Bet Now: $2.00). Former French galloper who made his Australian debut at Warwick Farm and was very good without a great deal of luck in the straight when third to Ligulate. Think he might want a tad further than 1550m, but gets the blinkers on, signalling intent, and the depth here overall isn’t overly strong.

10 Bocelli (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Tash Burleigh trained galloper who drops miles in grade after contesting the Country Championships Final when back and never really in the hunt behind Noble Boy. Think he’ll be much better suited on top of the ground here, he can sit off a good speed and have last look. Just depends what is left in the petrol tank. If he’s right, he’ll go close.

I think back to 1550m will suit the Bjorn Baker trained 15 Volpe (Bet Now: $14.00). He was well supported last time in the Wellington Cup and I thought Greg Ryan gave the gelding every chance in the run but he just didn’t run the trip out when a close up third to Goldstream. Like him back to 1550m and if the breaks go his way, he’s certainly going well enough to beat these.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Agassi

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Czarson

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 3 What Could Be

Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 3, 4, 7, 9

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 8

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 10

Leg Four: 3, 5, 10, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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