22/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Manikato Stakes night

The Cox Plate Carnival at the Valley kicks off this Friday night, headlined by the Group l Manikato Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Manikato Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Manikato Stakes

Cox Plate 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Cox Plate

6 Marine One (Bet Now: $2.10) is a Maher/Eustace trained colt that had his first run for the camp in a 975m maiden at Swan Hill. He was a very short priced elect given his 2YO form and he justified the short quote, leading throughout in pretty much a barrier trial for prizemoney. He is Saturday class, potentially Stakes class, so keen to see how he goes.

5 Super Thief (Bet Now: $3.90) is putting together a tidy little record for the Hayes camp. Lovely ride from McDougall saw him win impressively at Sale last time. Ran time in doing so and won with something in hand. Harder here, but he looks more than capable of measuring up. Not a long shot, but they are the only three winning chances.

It does look a race in two. Next best is the class of the field, 2 Fake Love (Bet Now: $9.00). Go back this time last year and she was a Stakes winner as a juvenile, so she has the talent, but has gone off the boil. On speed and tired badly late behind General Beau fresh at Caulfield, but she’s at a decent price that if you like class runners, she could be worth something small on. But would need to improve.

5 Thought Of That (Bet Now: $1.65) looks clearly the one to beat. Jury was out on him after such a promising 3YO Spring prep. But the last couple of efforts have confirmed he is well and truly back to his best, his latest outing seeing him romp up at Sandown. Linda Meech, you know how this works. She leads, controls and wins.

The blinkers going back on should spark up 3 Skyman (Bet Now: $4.20). He ran over the mile last time out in the Seymour Cup at Ballarat and was never really a winning threat but didn’t mind his finale behind the very much in form Mr Brightside. Up in trip, soft gate, he gets his chance.

1 Irish Flame (Bet Now: $9.50) won this race last year. He comes here this year through better races, those being the Sir Rupert Clarke and Toorak, where he has been outclassed. This looks more his level and with a cheap run on speed, an improved showing is on the cards.

5 Mahashakti (Bet Now: $3.00) has found winning form and she can go right on with it. Good run two back in the Benalla Cup before going to the Pinker Pinker Plate at Cranbourne where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted. Loves the Valley and in winning form, she’s hard to beat.

Giving respect to 1 Only Words (Bet Now: $2.40) for Chris Waller. Good thing beaten two back over the mile here in the Stocks. She then went to Thousand Guineas Day at Caulfield when lumping 59kg in the Ladies Day Vase and finished off well. Think she’s better placed on Saturday in the Tesio but if she runs here, she’s hard to beat.

7 Johandough (Bet Now: $14.00) can sneak a first four spot. She was on speed throughout in the Pinker Pinker Plate at Cranbourne and tried to match it with them late but just lacked the turn of foot when third to Mahashakti. Not sure she turns the tables but will run an honest race.

5 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $9.00) doesn’t win out of turn but he finds a very winnable race and is an acceptable price. He comes through the Weekend Hussler when back in the run and never really a winning threat but his finale was sound. I’d love to see him sit closer in the run. If he can, he’ll take beating.

1 So Si Bon (Bet Now: $3.40) is the best horse in the race and is a proven weight carrier. He had a suck run behind the speed in the Weekend Hussler and battled on well when fourth to Kahma Lass. Went so close in this race last year and is going well enough to win it.

3 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $8.50) is looking to make it four wins in this race on the bounce. Is he going as well this time around? I’m saying no, but third up with the Blinkers back on, it’s a clear target race for him and he will want a firm deck. If he gets that, he has to be respected.

I think 8 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $16.00) is a great price for a proven performer at the track/distance. He resumed over 1000m at the Valley with a massive impost. While he didn’t win, finishing fourth had merit to it and positive sign is that he was backed. He’ll sit off the fast speed here and be very strong at the end.

5 Yulong Command (Bet Now: $2.25) brings the best form. He resumed on Moir Night at this track/distance when on speed and he gave a really good kick when asked but had to settle for a second to the above average Curran, who ran well last Saturday. That form just reads so well for this.

10 Off To War (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Neil Osborne trained mare that resumes. This mare brings some okay country form from NSW but she is a winner with early speed and is a short course specialist so she gets a good set up for a crack at this race. I think she’s a first four threat.

2 The Gauch (Bet Now: $2.80) is a very genuine horse for the Maher/Eustace camp and should take a power of beating here. He didn’t beat a strong field at Sale last time but it was the confidence boost he needed after a couple of close up efforts in town. Tricky draw, but should slide forward and take beating.

7 Exeter (Bet Now: $11.00) is a track/distance winner and can run a much improved race. Resumed on Seymour Cup Day at Ballarat and just looked in need of the run behind Just Jake. He does tend to get better as the prep goes on and gets a good run from the draw.

1 Hawker Hurricane (Bet Now: $17.00) should be better with the run under the belt. Resumed at Sale behind The Gauch. He was trucking behind the speed and tried hard, but condition gave out and had to settle for third. He certainly has the class to take this out and a win wouldn’t totally shock with him.

What a revelation 6 Lombardo (Bet Now: $5.00) has been since the Blinkers have been applied. Ran fast overall time in winning at Caulfield. What I will say is that there were signs that perhaps he’s looking for the paddock. But, the stable is absolutely flying and he maps super.

8 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $11.00) has really turned her career around since being sent to the Maher/Eustace. Racing really well at the moment and from gate one, I think she lands box seat. Good in defeat at Caulfield last time behind Savatoxl. If the breaks go her way, she can take this out.

13 Crystal Bound (Bet Now: $15.00) looks to have returned in solid order. Toughed it out best to win fresh down the straight at Flemington. She then went to Caulfield when near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well when third to Sneaky Five. Third up, should be hard fit and note that Ciaron Maher has said her coat hasn’t been 100%.

7 Imperial Lad (Bet Now: $2.60) for me in the get out. Attempted to lead throughout over 1400m on Thousand Guineas Day and gave a really good kick. Just couldn’t quite finish the job when second to Agreeable. Fitter, up in trip should be fine, and with a soft lead, he’ll take beating.

I don’t think there was any fluke about the first up win of 8 Huntly Castle (Bet Now: $9.00) on Pinker Pinker Night at Cranbourne. He was trucking in the run and it was just a matter of getting clear. Once he did, he was always going to win and got there. He’ll do no work from the draw and is a threat.

1 Le Baol (Bet Now: $11.00) is one of the more fascinating runners on the program. Lindsey Smith trained import that had two runs for the stable this time last year, creating a big impression first up at Sandown before having excuses at Caulfield. Three jumpouts to get ready, the market will tell you if he’s ready to go. If it likes him, have something on.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Thought Of That

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 Imperial Lad

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 The Last Napoleon

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 5, 6, 8, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7

Leg Three: 1, 6, 8, 12, 13

Leg Four: 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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