The Queensland metro program this Saturday will be run and won at the Sunshine Coast. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:29) : Butler McDermott Lawyers Handicap 2200m:
Back Me: Volkhere (Best Odds: $3.00) just looks the winner. He has toughed it out very strongly to win his past two starts and the longer the races go on, the better he gets, plus he doesn’t mind a tussle, so whatever the situation, he just looks the one.
Big Danger: Shotover River (Best Odds: $3.00) drops back to this level after contesting three Stakes races to kick off this prep, the latest in the Bernborough when seventh to Centre Pivot. He will love the step up to 2200m and is so well in at the weights after the claim for Luke Dittman.
Roughie: Uno Five (Best Odds: $6.00) has run second to Volkhere at his past two starts and while he has run well, he has been no match for that horse. He does get a half kilo pull in the weights, and while I doubt he can turn the tables, he will be thereabouts once again.
Race Two (14:04) : Yalumba Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: Just Orm (Best Odds: $2.20) was backed as if unbeatable when debuting at Doomben and after attempting to lead all the way, he stuck on to run third to impressive winner Dieters. Draws gate one here, so he should lead comfortably again, and at the Sunny Coast, sitting on speed at this trip is such an advantage.
Big Danger: Heart Skip A Beat (Best Odds: $4.60) comes through the same race where she worked to the line strongly late from off the speed to run second, beaten 1.3L. She gives the impression that the bigger track will suit and she is drawn to be in the clear and ambush late.
Roughie: Hidden Light (Best Odds: $13.00) ran over 800m at Ipswich last time out where she was a touch unlucky given the saddle shifted in the run and she didn’t appear to handle the tight turn. Bigger track and good gate should see her be right in the finish.
Race Three (14:39) : XXXX Handicap (1MW) 1000m:
Back Me: Grenache (Best Odds: $10.00) looks great value at the $21 mark. Former Sydney galloper who had four runs for Bryan Guy in the Winter, resulting in a win and two seconds. No trials leading in, but he can run well fresh, on the minimum and Jim Byrne rode the horse well last time in.
Big Danger: Chief Of The Clan (Best Odds: $5.00) copped severe pressure in front last start at Doomben and faded out of it late behind Jopa, who ran alright in the Goldmarket last Saturday. If he can overcome the wide gate, he’ll lead and take some running down.
Roughie: True Royal (Best Odds: $17.00) resumed over this track/distance a couple of weeks back where he worked home nicely late to run fourth to Urban Knight, beaten just over a length. Eligible for easier, but he draws a soft gate here and is trained on the track.
Race Four (15:13) : Coastline BMW Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: Charcuterie (Best Odds: $4.00) looks the way to go here. He looked the winner last time out at Doomben, but was nabbed in the last stride by Eagle Way in a thrilling finish. Gets a 2.5kg weight pull on that horse and has the barrier draw advantage, so I am confident he can turn the tables, and that is the strongest form reference for this.
Big Danger: Favoured Grace (Best Odds: $6.00) will love the step up to 1800m. She ran a close up sixth in that race mentioned above and was a little unlucky not to win given she got held up a touch in the straight when full of running. Drawn to be out of trouble, and I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t look like the winner at some stage.
Roughie: Slaughter Bay (Best Odds: $61.00) debuted over the mile here and worked home okay late behind impressive winner Mandryka Bay, beaten eight lengths. Better suited over the longer trip, he has race experience now and I doubt he will win, but is a must for exotics at longer odds.
Race Five (15:53) : Wimmers Premium Soft Drink Handicap (75) 1800m:
Back Me: Outraged (Best Odds: $9.00) for me in a race I am not confident about. He was a real eye catcher two back behind Gold Horizon before not getting much luck last start behind Glendara. 1800m and bigger track is perfect and Luke Dittman is back on.
Big Danger: Meteorologist (Best Odds: $13.00) ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks ago and tried hard when a close up second to Surface Tension. Third up now, so he should be nearing peak fitness and senior rider is back aboard from the paint.
Roughie: Cramming (Best Odds: $81.00) could be a sneaky blowout hope at huge odds. This John Thompson trained galloper hasn’t set the world on fire in recent times, but go through his form, and he tends to save his best for bigger tracks, and he has won here previously. $67 is ridiculous overs.
Race Six (16:33) : Access Insulation Handicap (80) 1200m:
Back Me: The bigger track should suit the mare Britalia Kate (Best Odds: $19.00), who was given a peach by Bossy to win two back before getting no luck at all seven days later behind Tina Melina. She has a very solid record at this track, and from the wide gate, she won’t get strung up in traffic.
Big Danger: Remagen Bridge (Best Odds: $13.00) steps up in class after toughing it out strongly to win over this trip at Ipswich a couple of weeks back. Despite being trained on the track, he is yet to place in three runs on it, which is the negative, but senior rider is on now, draws well and is in form.
Roughie: Easy Running (Best Odds: $14.00) drops a bit in class and depth after contesting an open handicap last time out at Doomben where he worked home well late to run third to Jopa. Has run well at this track before, good gate and Allen remains on. Should be single figures, not $13.
Race Seven (17:13) : Sky Racing Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: Sea Red (Best Odds: $3.50) ran over 1350m at Doomben a couple of weeks back and produced a brilliant finishing burst to win in very impressive fashion. She’ll love the step up in trip and the bigger track, and despite taking on the boys here, she looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: Lordag (Best Odds: $3.20) comes through the Bernborough where he toughed it out very strongly to run second to impressive winner Centre Pivot, beaten 1.3L. He has a fabulous record at the track and Lloyd remains on.
Roughie: Amexed (Best Odds: $31.00) resumed over the mile at Doomben three weeks back where he was ridden a touch too close to the speed and fought on okay behind Glorious Red. He is better on a bigger track and with a firmer surface, which is what he gets here, plus he is fitter. Definite horse to include in exotics.
Race Eight (17:55) : Golden Beach Tavern Handicap (75) 1400m:
Back Me: Written Above All (Best Odds: $9.00) started bolters odds last time out where he was given a peach by Bossy and looked home, but was bloused late by Storm Fighter. Third up now, so he should be at peak fitness and he has a very good record at the track.
Big Danger: Bushy (Best Odds: $17.00) ran over 1350m last time out at Doomben where he sat on speed and stuck on quite well when fifth in the same race mentioned above. He does meet Written Above All 2kg better, and if he can overcome the wide draw, he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: Chalupa (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed over 1200m here three weeks back when back in the run and working home well without threatening behind Mywayorthehighway. He has a really good second up record and will be strong late.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 Sea Red
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Volkhere
VALUE: Race Five Number 13 Cramming
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 13
Leg Two: 4, 5, 10, 11, 12, 13
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12
$50 Investment= 2.57% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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