The Perth Summer Carnival wraps up this Saturday with their traditional New Years program, with the feature race being the $500,000 Group ll Perth Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (15:21) : Free Wi-Fi Available Plate 1200m:
Back Me: Vega Magic (Best Odds: $1.35) will get the nod for me…but only just. He has been very impressive in both runs this time in, both over this track/distance, the latest coming three weeks back. Only rises 1kg in weight, and that isn’t a big enough negative for mine.
Big Danger: Scales Of Justice (Best Odds: $3.30) is probably the better horse out of he and Vega Magic, but he can do plenty wrong, as we saw when he won over 1100m here first up, pulling his head off in the run but his class got him home. If he can produce better racing manners, he’ll give it a shake.
Roughie: Airlie Sun (Best Odds: $41.00) finished behind Vega Magic here three weeks back and seemingly had his chance, so I doubt he can turn the tables, but he will get a cheap run from the gate and is a definite place chance.
Race Two (16:01) : Kai Commercial Interiors Handicap (72+) 1500m:
Back Me: Tipping the Casey family to bring up the first two races courtesy of Stocks (Best Odds: $4.60) here, who comes here off a month freshen up since winning over 1400m here. Draws wide and has to carry 57kg, but he has a lethal turn of foot when cuddled and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t look the winner.
Big Danger: Antique Dream (Best Odds: $3.40) is the one with upside. This Peters/Williams/Pike mare has brought up three wins on the bounce, the latest over 1400m here a fortnight back. Harder here, but as I said, there is upside and stable is just low flying.
Roughie: Tudor Bolt (Best Odds: $4.20) ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and finished his race off with real purpose when running second to Vengabus, who I like in the next race. 1400m is the query, but on this effort, he should get it without too many hassles.
Race Three (16:41) : G1X.com.au Sprint (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: Vengabus (Best Odds: $6.00) was given a peach of a front running ride by Peter Knuckey last time out over this track/distance and it was the ride that won the horse the race. The rail is out seven metres here, so leaders will not be disadvantaged, so he will take some beating, especially if he can get a cheap sectional.
Big Danger: Gigante (Best Odds: $4.00) resumed in that race mentioned above and he looked a little unlucky I thought given he pulled hard in the run and got held up in the straight when he had something to offer. With better luck and better racing manners, he can give this a shake.
Roughie: The Dankster (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over 1000m on December 23 and worked home well without threatening when sixth to impressive winner Express Dancer, who I think is a good thing in the last race. The Dankster will be suited up in trip and he won’t be far away from gate one.
Race Four (17:21) : Al Sapphire Residential Developments Handicap (66+) 2200m:
Back Me: Entrechat (Best Odds: $3.40) ran over 2000m at Pinjarra last time out where she was given a lovely on speed ride from Pike, where he cuddled the mare throughout and lifted her late when challenged. She ran a beauty at this track/distance the start prior, and with Pike remaining, it’s hard to see her not being around the mark.
Big Danger: Don’tgetcaught (Best Odds: $3.80) comes through the ATA Stakes where he finished his race off nicely late to run third to Bedamijo and Neverland. This is a big, big leap down in grade, and he only goes up 1.5kg in weights. He will be very hard to hold out.
Roughie: Saxon Saxoff (Best Odds: $7.50) attempted to lead all the way over this track/distance three weeks back and stuck on very gamely when third to Properantes (Bedamijo second), so that form reads well for this, and with only 52kg on his back, he’ll roll along and give them something to chase.
Race Five (18:00) : G1XBloodstock.com.au Handicap (72+) 1800m:
Back Me: Lunar Eclipse (Best Odds: $2.80) has really put it all together at his past two starts, resulting in a couple of brilliant and powerful wins, both over 1500m here. He should have no trouble running 1800m and looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Fashion Princess (Best Odds: $8.50) has been in Stakes company at her past three outings and has been far from disgraced, the latest in the Startstruck (1600m) behind Tarquinn Shadow. Significant drop in grade and gets on the minimum after the claim, so she looks well placed.
Roughie: Vital Art (Best Odds: $18.00) is a Geraldton visitor who has been flying on her home track in recent times, the latest when bolting up over the mile. She tends to turn it up away from home, but while she is in this kind of form, it’s the right time to send her to town.
Race Six (18:45) : Kai Constructions La Trice Classic 1800m:
Back Me: Dendee (Best Odds: $16.00) for me at a price. Her three wins from as many starts recently have been very impressive, albeit in much easier grade than this. She’s terribly weighted, but she is a mare in red hot winning form, and they more often than not measure up.
Big Danger: Ideal Image (Best Odds: $5.00) ran i the Starstruck (1600m) last time out and stuck on very well when a close up third to Tarquinn Shadow. Pike jumps off, which is the negative, but she loses nothing with Glenn Smith riding, and she should get every chance from gate one.
Roughie: Vital Importance (Best Odds: $6.00) closed off very nicely in that race mentioned above, working home strongly to run second, beaten narrowly. She has upside and will love the extra furlong, and should could perhaps sit closer from the good gate.
Race Seven (19:25) : Schweppes Summer Scorcher 1000m:
Back Me: Silverstream (Best Odds: $6.00) for me here, but she has become costly. It was hard to watch last start when she got just too far back from the gate when a steaming fourth to Dueton. The wide gate here will ensure she gets back again, but the speed will be hot, so she’ll get every chance to charge home and ambush late.
Big Danger: Lucky Street (Best Odds: $4.60) was wide all the way when racing in the Winterbottom (1200m), so his effort to finish three lengths off Buffering was excellent. Freshened up and looked sharp in a recent trial win at Belmont.
Roughie: Rock Magic’s (Best Odds: $9.00) form prior to the Colonel Reeves had been suspect, but he appreciated a cold ride and the perfect drag up behind Waterman’s Bay to nail that horse in the last stride. Was due to run in the Winterbottom, but was scratched. He draws gate one, which is a negative, but if the breaks go his way, he can win this.
Race Eight (20:05) : G1X.com.au Perth Cup 2400m:
Back Me: Delicacy (Best Odds: $2.30) just looks the winner here. Her win in the Cox Stakes was just dominant, and the time was nearly four seconds quicker than the ATA Stakes, so I really can’t see anything from that race winning this, and she is the clear pick from the Cox Stakes. With normal luck, she’ll win, even with the weight.
Big Danger: Neverland (Best Odds: $3.80) does come through the ATA Stakes and she looked a little unlucky given she got back in the run and got held up a touch when looking to build up momentum. She struggled to match it with Delicacy in the Kingston Town, so I can’t see her winning personally, but Pike has gone with her.
Roughie: Tower Of Lonhro (Best Odds: $34.00) will appreciate the return to a handicap after contesting WFA at his past two starts, the latest when sixth to Delicacy in the Cox Stakes. He gets an 8kg weight swing on Delicacy, and he has more upside. $26 is ridiculous overs.
Race Nine (20:45) : Ascend Sales Trophies Sprint (66+) 1100m:
Back Me: Express Dancer (Best Odds: $3.20) looks a good thing. He ran over 1000m here on December 23 and it was Pike and his magic wand that got the son of Charge Forward home. Extra 100m is only beneficial, and if he is close enough on the turn, or even at the 200m mark, he’ll prove too good.
Big Danger: Brackets (Best Odds: $14.00) loomed to win first up, but he just ran out of condition when a close up third to Volkhoff, beaten just under a length. He should take good improvement off that and looms as the main threat to Express Dancer.
Roughie: Heavy Set (Best Odds: $10.00) comes through that race Express Dancer won, and his effort was pretty good from the back also. He just didn’t have the same luck Express Dancer had. Doubt he can turn the tables, but he will be charging late.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 8 Express Dancer
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Delicacy
VALUE: Race Eight Number 15 Tower Of Lonhro
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 10, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 11, 13, 15
Leg Four: 8
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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