20/9/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Newcastle, Newcastle Cup day

Up in trip and getting away from Group l class gallopers looks a good set up for 1 Mocambo (Bet Now: $4.60). I’m a fan of this horse after he did some nice things during the Autumn. Spelled, trialled well and resumed over 1300m at Randwick where he was back near last on a day where leaders were suited so forget he went around behind Yao Dash. Looks more suited here and I think he can measure up to better races. Happy to be with him.

2 Colada (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Gerald Ryan trained three year old who was I really keen on when he raced over the 1550m at Canterbury last Wednesday, hoping he’d jump to the front and dominate proceedings and thankfully he did, bolting up to get the job done. Looks like he’ll get a good run near the speed again and prove hard to beat despite the class/depth rise.

8 Stick ‘Em Up (Bet Now: $17.00) is still a maiden for John Sargent but she looks to have a bit of ability and is a filly to potentially watch for re Oaks. She ran in a maiden over 1500m here last time out and closed off really well to run third to what looks a handy one in Aoraki. Blinkers go on to sharpen her up and getting out to the mile, I think she’s a knockout hope here.

If he runs up to the trials, 2 Elgin (Bet Now: $5.00) should be putting this lot away. Talented galloper who promised a bit during last prep and looked above average at times but he couldn’t put a win on the board as they stepped him out in trip. I think the shorter trips are his go in life and he has looked really sharp at the trials, notably his first trial, which came here. Keen on him.

1 Canyonero (Bet Now: $5.50) certainly has the talent to beat these. Just a matter of putting it together for a win. He didn’t look 100% happy on the tight track first up at Gosford but once he balanced up, he found the line well enough late when fourth to Appian Way in a maiden where the form has been pretty good subsequent. Bigger track and up in trip, he’ll run well.

9 Trapassi (Bet Now: $10) is a son of Exceed And Excel who was kept relatively safe in betting when debuting at Hawkesbury but did a bit wrong in the run and was wide for most of the trip behind impressive winner Fasano. Draws to get a soft run just off the speed and he should take good improvement from start one to start two. If he does improve, he’ll be thereabouts.

I’ll take a punt on 9 Mirra Vision (Bet Now: $2.80), on debut for the Snowden camp. This girl has had several trials over a few preps so she’s certainly had enough of a grounding to run well on debut and liked her most recent trial, which saw her win and the big tick is that when Tommy Berry gave her a squeeze, she responded and did it well. Happy to be in her corner.

7 Bright Rubick (Bet Now: $5.50) drops significantly in grade/depth after resuming in the Furious at Randwick where she got back in the run and was never really in the hunt behind Libertini. Did trial up sharply prior to that, so much so that the stable thought she was worth resuming in a Group ll. Back to a Newcastle maiden, despite the wide gate, she’s hard to beat.

12 Rockarosa (Bet Now: $4.20) is a daughter of Pierro resuming. This girl hasn’t raced since the Autumn where she debuted at Canterbury and was more than sound in defeat behind a good one in Maddi Rocks. Recent Warwick Farm trial was good and though I think she may want a touch further, she looks forward enough, based on the trial, to be running well here.

These 2300m contests are generally a slog so I’ll go with a tough stayer, one of which in this race is 4 Equipped (Bet Now: $7.50). Tough effort two back in the Wyong Cup Prelude before backing up a few weeks later on the Kenso track and was far from disgraced in defeat. This looks more his level and is 2/2 at the track/distance, so in a tricky race, I’ll be in his corner.

6 Toulouse (Bet Now: $3.80) looks to be going well for David Payne and is one of the leading contenders. He comes through the race mentioned above on the Kenso track won by Terwilliker and I thought he stuck to his task pretty well in running third in what was a high rating staying race, a big tick considering it was midweek class. Back to this sort of level from the gate, he’s hard to beat.

I reckon up to 2300m will suit the Kris Lees trained 7 Oakfield Monarch (Bet Now: $19.00). He was well specked at odds last time out in the Tuncurry Cup where he got back in the run on a day where on speed/rail was the spot to be, so for mine, just scrap that run. His couple of runs prior were solid enough and now on his home track up in trip, he could be a knockout chance.

6 Wren’s Day (Bet Now: $4.40) on top, just. James Cummings trains this French import, who resumed over 1400m on the Kenso track when back and wide. Couldn’t quite finish it off when midfield behind Girl Tuesday, who of course ran so well in the Chelmsford Stakes, so the form reads very well and the subsequent trial at Canterbury was much better than what he produced at the trials leading into the resumption.

Good test for 14 Rock (Bet Now: $4.60) and this will determine if he’s indeed a Spring Carnival contender or is he another prep away from producing his best. Brilliant win first up at Canterbury before going to the Kenso track where he hit the flat spot early on in the straight but picked up and really attacked the line like a good horse to get the job done. He’s got the engine to measure up. Just needs to iron out a couple of faults.

4 The Candy Man (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Barry Baldwin trained grey who has got a cult following and is very popular with punters given what he did during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. He resumed over 1200m at Eagle Farm two weeks ago where he got back in the run and was never really in the hunt but found the line strongly and produced really good late splits. May want further, but he’s talented and will be strong late.

Happy to be in the corner of 14 Asiago (Bet Now: $13.00). Was really keen on her when she resumed in an 1100m maiden at Hawkesbury and aided by a sweet steer from Buckley, the filly found the best part of the track and sprinted hard late to win impressively. Had trialled up sharply prior to that and confirmed the thought she had returned well with a dominant maiden win. She can go on with it.

You know what you’ll get with 5 Calipari (Bet Now: $8.50). He’ll jump, run and look the winner. Last 50-100m will be the test but he got the maiden win out of the way first up over 900m here, showing good speed, like he did in the trials, and duly bolted up under Bullock. Jumps to 1200m and looks to be really good depth here, so there are knocks, but he’s got the right racing pattern.

7 Joy For Us (Bet Now: $11.00) is an interesting runner. Kim Waugh trains this mare, who is first up off a decent enough trial at Gosford a couple of weeks when running fourth but wasn’t asked for much of an effort. Waugh has told Stewards that the horse had tie-back surgery during the spell. Stable finds J Mac to ride first up, so I think watch the market and see what it does.

Going to take a chance on 4 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $34.00). Former German galloper for Matty Smith that made his Australian debut in the Premiers Cup at Rosehill where he looked to travel really well but when pressure was applied, the wheels were spinning on the bog track behind Wu Gok. Back on firmer footing and he closed off nicely in a trial last week behind Happy Clapper.

Well just how good is 16 Our Candidate (Bet Now: $2.45)? Visually, he has been stunning at his past two, trotting up by a space each time. The counter argument is that he has been beating up pretty much midweek class stayers, so this will be a good test for him, but he’s really in the zone at the moment, and now on his home track, he should take a power of beating.

7 Azuro (Bet Now: $13.00) is an interesting runner. The Maher/Eustace stable trains this stayer, who comes here off the back of a dominant win over two miles in the Queensland Cup when leading for the second half of the race and bolting up. Brisbane Winter Carnival form is gold for the early part of the Spring and his two trials leading in have been decent enough.

2 Pohutukawa (Bet Now: $3.20) is better than these isn’t she? Classy mare for James Cummings that resumes off a pretty solid Autumn/Winter prep, where they tried her out as a potential Oaks horse, but she didn’t run the 2000m out in the Vinery so they kept her to the shorter trips and ran very well. Should have won the Queensland Guineas behind Kolding, then was beaten a lip by Invincibella in the Tatts Tiara. Loved her recent trial and I think class will get her home.

5 Sweet Deal (Bet Now: $4.80) is in a real purple patch at the moment for John Thompson and I think she’s earned a crack at blacktype. Won two on the bounce in impressive fashion prior to racing over 1500m at Randwick where she was on speed and given every chance by Nash but just found Articus too good. Back to 1400m and back to Mares grade, she’ll take some beating.

Couldn’t back 11 Into The Abyss (Bet Now: $12.00) to win with stolen money but her two runs back from a spell haven’t been too bad. Thought she was good first up in the Toy Show behind Mizzy, who has won again since. She then went to the Mona Lisa at Wyong where she didn’t appear 100% happy on the tight track in a forgive run behind Foxy Housewife. Bigger track, hard fit now, giving her a knockout chance.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Pohutukawa

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Elgin

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Sweet Thomas

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 11, 14

Leg Two: 2, 5, 7, 14

Leg Three: 4, 7, 16, 17

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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