20/1/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Kensington Stakes day

Flemington is where Melbourne racing takes place this Saturday for Kensington Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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8 Willi Willi (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Craig Widdison trained gelding who resumed with a fab second to Amadeus in the Gold Bullion on Pakenham Cup Day before racing over the 1400m here on New Years Day where he got back in a slowly run affair and couldn’t really come on in the straight behind Wise Hero. I think up to 1800m is a big tick.

4 Guizot (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing really well this time in for the Aaron Purcell team. He ran over the mile at Sandown three weeks back where he tried really hard with the 60kg but had to settle for a close up third to Orient Line. Gets needed weight relief, Lane steers, draws well…ticks plenty of boxes for me.

9 Le Juge (Bet Now: $14.00) is a former French galloper who has had a couple of runs now in Australia for the Chris Waller team and he is making steady progress. ran over the mile at Caulfield a tick under two weeks ago and I thought he worked home nicely late in what was a really messy race won by Widgee Turf. Big track, 1800m, upside, he has plenty going for him.

8 Last Week (Bet Now: $2.60) clearly on top. Darren Weir trains this progressive stayer who was a notable drifter in betting on New Years Day over 2000m here and while the market got it right, he stuck to the task very gamely when second to stablemate Civil Disobedience. Think 2500m suits and he has more upside than most here.

3 Goodwood Zodiac (Bet Now: $4.20) is a tough, tough stayer for the Waterhouse/Bott team who ran over 2400m at Sandown last Wednesday where he sat on speed and was gallant in defeat, fighting hard all the way down the straight when a narrow second to Tuff Bickie. Gets really good weight relief and maps well.

2 Al Haram (Bet Now: $8.00) is a former French galloper who has had two runs in Australia now for the Hayes/Dabernig team and is getting better I think. Resumed on a bog at Sandown and couldn’t pick his feet up. Then raced at the 2000m here on New Years Day and was much better on the firmer footing behind Golden Mane. Third up now, he should just about be ready fitness wise.

1 Civil Disobedience (Bet Now: $2.35) is a lovely looking colt for the Darren Weir yard who could be heading to Tasmania for their Summer riches and I think he can go there via another win here. He ran at this track/distance on New Years Day where he was absolutely smashed in betting and the punters got it spot on as he dug in and fought when required. Confident he can repeat the dose.

8 Anneka (Bet Now: $8.50) looks a stayer of some promise for Henry Dwyer, formerly with Robert Smerdon. Thought she toughed it out strongly last time out at Mornington. She doesn’t have a turn of foot but she will stay all day and has been kept up to fitness with a 20 length trial win at Stony Creek last Tuesday.

7 Almighty Crown (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Chris Waller trained son of Street Cry who had been just going okay at the NSW provincials before Waller sent the horse to Victoria and a 2000m maiden at Yarra Valley, with the state switch proving to be the winning move as he led all the way to win impressively. Always respect these up and coming Waller runners.

Most of these come through an 1800m mares race at Caulfield a tick under a fortnight back and the best run from that race was clearly 2 Addison (Bet Now: $2.40), who I think is a near good thing here. Shenandoah won the race and really it was run at barrier trial speed, with the backmarkers really having no hope, yet she still rattled off sub 22 for her final 400m. Normal luck, she wins.

8 So Splendid (Bet Now: $7.50) ran second to Shenandoah at Caulfield and I thought Micky Dee gave the mare every chance to run the leader/winner down, and she got close. Just didn’t have the turn of foot when they sprinted. Has failed previously twice at the ten furlongs, but she seems a better horse now.

4 Bonus D’Oro (Bet Now: $7.50) was another eye catcher in the Shenandoah race at Caulfield. She too was back and was a victim of the slow tempo, but she wound up with purpose too and was beaten under a length. She’s racing as if the 2000m will suit and these Weir horses stepping up in trip should always be respected.

9 Hussy’s Glow (Bet Now: $8.50) clearly on top for me. Big fan of this mare for Patrick Payne. Has had three runs back from a break and got back into the winners list with a strong win at Echuca on New Years Eve, aided by an absolute peach from in form apprentice Tahlia Hope. Has run well up to a mile so 1400m here no issue, has upside and class.

3 Sohool (Bet Now: $7.00) had been bursting to win a race for some time and it was good to finally see him put a win on the board last Wednesday at Sandown when charging home out wide under a heavy ride from gun apprentice Jordan Turner. Up to the mile some query, but the plus for him is that he has that turn of foot.

7 Patriot Act (Bet Now: $15.00) looks to be going really well at the moment for the Jody Thompson team. Aided by bias last time out at Sandown, but still, he did lead all the way under Tahlia Hope and fought really hard late because he was strongly challenged with around 150m to go. Would like him to get cover here, because I doubt he can lead all the way and beat this lot.

Keep a very close eye on the 16 Sabotage (Bet Now: $31.00), making his Australian debut for the Symon Wilde team. This former kiwi hasn’t raced since January 28 last year when a narrow second at Pukekohe over 1300m when surging hard between runners and just missing out. No officials, but has had a couple of jump outs at Terang and to the eye has gone quite nicely.

3 Murphy’s Reward (Bet Now: $10.00) surprised most with an all the way win at the Valley first up but proved that was no fluke with a close up second in that race mentioned above, which was won by Nasdex. He draws to get clear running here, he’ll be up near the speed and the claim for Steph Thornton is a big tick.

12 Tykiato (Bet Now: $11.00) is a mare who is going really well at the moment for the John Price team. Unlucky not to win two back at Caulfield when a narrow second to Creativity before a gutsy third to Mamzelle Tess after sitting wide throughout with the 60kg. Gets really good weight relief and Mick Dee is back on. Has run well down the straight before also.

4 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $1.55) is one of the more exciting gallopers of Australian but this will be a good test to see just how good he is. His win last Wednesday at Sandown was unbelievable. Smashed the clock despite appearing in a barrier trial it seemed in the sense of how motionless Ryan Maloney was. First look down the straight, but he’s the obvious.

2 Onehundred Percent (Bet Now: $11.00) is a promising gelding for the Henry Dwyer team who has won three of his four starts. Resumed with a high rating win at Werribee in a Class One before racing over the 1100m at Caulfield on Boxing Day when given a sweet ride by Olly and just holding on to beat Prevailing Winds. 1100m no issue for mine and hard to not include him.

3 Prezado (Bet Now: $5.50) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained three year old that is first up here. This bloke hasn’t raced since winning down the straight over the 1000m on Cup Day when starting long odds. Recent jump outs have been quite encouraging and the big tick for him is that he has had good experience down the straight.

5 Thermal Current (Bet Now: $4.60) is a bludger in terms of wanting to win, but I think he gets conditions to suit here. He ran down the straight here over 1100m last Saturday and worked home well nearer the inside but no match for stablemate Ken’s Dream. He draws to stalk the speed and back to 1000m, he’ll be strong late.

3 Lord of The Sky (Bet Now: $7.00) is the best horse in the race but consistency is his issue. Resumed with a fab win down the straight in the Standish on New Years Day, albeit he crawled in front and fell in. But, credit where it’s due to all concerned. I like him back to 1000m, he has the run under the belt…just all depends if he turns up.

I think 6 Husson Eagle (Bet Now: $5.50) has been prepped up to run a beauty here. Could have gone to the Magic Millions but he has been kept on the fresh side and resumes down the straight, where he does save his best. He flies first up and has been given a couple of really quiet trials. I reckon he’ll be ready to go.

6 Curragh (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Tavistock first up for the Busuttin/Young yard. He might just be a first up performer only because three of his four career wins have come when fresh. His Autumn/Winter prep was solid but he just didn’t quite go on with it after the first up win. Jump outs have been good and stable is going quite well.

Very interesting placement from Godolphin to send 10 Malaise (Bet Now: $5.00) here. He was heavily backed last time out at Randwick and eventually got the win, but I wouldn’t say wearing down Level Eight is something you want to show off on the CV. But we have seen recently that these Godolphin horses that have come to Melbourne have performed well. Just has to overcome the sticky draw.

Was really keen on 12 The Avenger (Bet Now: $5.00) when he raced at Caulfield a tick under two weeks back and we got a decent price about him. Olly gave the horse a peach, trucking up behind the speed before angling clear and finishing over the top for a super win. Has upside and I think the Flemington 1400m is ideal.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 2 Addison

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Nature Strip

VALUE: Race Nine Number 6 Curragh

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 12, 13, 16

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg Four: 3, 6, 10, 12

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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