2/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Lord Reims Stakes day

The Adelaide Carnival gains momentum this Saturday at Morphettville where it is Lord Reims Stakes Day, with the 2600m feature being the key lead up to the Adelaide Cup. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Tricky race to sort out, but going the way of 1 Ice Ghost (Bet Now: $9.50), resuming for Gordon Richards. He hasn’t raced since December 8 over the 1500m here when sitting off the pace in the small field and he just didn’t have the turn of foot to match it with those in front when the sprint went on. No trials leading in, but gets a good gate with Stubby on and this field lacks depth.

4 Exalted Maxine (Bet Now: $3.30) is 2/2 this time in for the Grant Young stable, with both starts/wins coming at Murray Bridge. The first win came over 900m before racing at that trip again where she was four wide on speed but booted clear late and was most impressive. Toughest test to date, but stable is going very well at the moment and overall, this isn’t a strong race.

2 Dancer’s Kin (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding who is resuming. His Spring prep was solid, but he didn’t win a race and on a couple of times he let the punters down, so he’s somewhat on notice, but the Murray Bridge trial win was good to the eye. Seems to race best on the fresh side so at this level, he’s a chance. But I’m not I could back him to win.

How often do you see these bludgers finally get a win and then repeat the dose next time? I think that can happen again via 3 Two Odd Sox (Bet Now: $4.00), who has been racing really well for Shayne Cahill but had been struggling to put a win on the board. That all changed two weeks ago with an electric finale from the back out wide to claim a well deserved win. Draws gate, gets the claim for Jess Eaton…why not?

5 Chevaux (Bet Now: $2.15) is a former Darren Weir galloper having his first run for Will Clarken. Broken record when I say that Clarken is one of the best in Australia at improving a tried horse and he’s got one here, who hasn’t raced since early January at Caulfield when close up behind the in form Mystyko. Normally sprints well fresh…the winning strike rate along with the current price are the negatives.

2 Broadway And First (Bet Now: $6.00) is an Alexander Justice trained gelding that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since December 22 at Flemington when midfield all the way and not really coming on behind Mr Money Bags. Was with Darren Weir but is with Justice and the recent Murray Bridge trial win looked sharp. If he’s anywhere near right and is fit, he’ll be a threat for sure.

This race has really dropped away after scratchings. 8 Lostarc (Bet Now: $2.15) does look the one to beat now. Attempted to lead all the way at this track/distance last time under Cory Parish in the Lynch Mob race mentioned above. Thought he had every chance in front, kicked hard but was nabbed late by the in form McEvoy runner. Terrible winning strike rate, but I don’t think a win is far off, and he gets control in front.

2 Matamanoa (Bet Now: $2.30) is the complete unknown here. Did nothing first up over 1400m at Pakenham before racing over the mile there where he started near $101, and he produced a brilliant finale from the back to win. Tick over trial a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne was good…the SP fans will be against him, because he was $91 SP last time and as it stands now, he’s around $2.50. Got upside though and in the right stable.

5 Igitur (Bet Now: $8.50) has a win in home shortly. Not sure it’s here, but gate one helps. He ran over the mile at Strathalbyn last time where he settled just off the speed and tried hard in the straight when second to the in form Big Call. Looking for further which he gets here, does no work from the draw and the $18/thereabouts on offer does look a touch of overs I thought.

Tricky race but with the way the map currently looks, 5 One More Daisy (Bet Now: $4.00) is a horse I could entertain here. She ran in the Oamaru Owl race from two weeks ago where she was a little unlucky to not finish closer, but the winner did the work on speed and was too good, and deserved the win. This girl does draw to stalk the resuming Al Passem and Go The Journey, hopefully landing box seat and can get last look.

4 Morvada (Bet Now: $7.00) is the interesting runner. Peter Jolly has this bloke flying at the moment but he comes back to 1200m after winning impressively over the mile here three weeks ago, with his class coming to the fore late in overhauling Silent Warrior. Back to 1200m is the unknown but if they overdo it in front, he’ll be one of the strongest late in the race.

7 Stragun (Bet Now: $6.00) is a hard one to catch but he can threaten if things fall into place for him. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight ago where he sat off a good speed and had his chance to reel them in but couldn’t quite get the job done when third to Oamaru Owl. Off that effort, I couldn’t back him to win, but for the most part, he’s honest and should be around the mark.

3 Naseeb (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the one to beat. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where it was an absolute nightmare if you were on. Had no luck in the straight when seemingly full of running and you could make a very strong case that he should have won when second to Bwuva. Hopefully the luck goes his way this time around and he can get the job done.

7 Big Call (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Peter Moody trained mare who is racing in near career best form at the moment. She has won her past two, both coming over the mile at Strathalbyn where she has been ridden a treat each time and duly saluted. The depth in those races was weaker than what she faces here, but she’s a mare in form and a hard mile no issue for her.

9 Miss Identified (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Travis Doudle trained mare who is racing in really good form at the moment. On the quick back up after racing last Saturday on the Parks track where she got back in the run and closed off alright late in the piece behind Gougers. Was coming back in trip that day so back up to the mile, down in the weights, I think she’s a winning chance.

3 Lady Lupino (Bet Now: $4.40) clearly on top for me. Danny O’Brien trains this filly, who debuted at the Valley last year where she was surprisingly unwanted in betting but defied that by leading all the way and running really good time in doing so. Been given the break and looked to work really well at the Valley on Monday morning. Think she has the sustained speed to win here.

1 Movie Role (Bet Now: $3.10) has been kept on ice since contesting the Blue Diamond Prelude where she got a mile back off them and was never really likely but did close off alright behind subsequent Blue Diamond winner Lyre, so that has to be good form for this, and with the scratchings, the barrier isn’t too bad. Has class on her side and should take some beating.

7 Li’l Kontra (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Ryan Balfour trained filly who has had two career outings, finishing runner up each time. Ran Freed Of Debt to a half length on debut, who has since placed in a Blue Diamond. She was then freshened up and ran here a couple of weeks back where she led and was grabbed on the peg by Dalasan. Think back to the 1050m will suit, as will riding with cover.

1 Bondeiger (Bet Now: $2.15) does look one of the hardest to beat. This bloke comes through the Torney Cup where he got well off the pace but finished off strongly to run a close up fourth to Vengeur Masque. The depth here, overall, looks rather thin, plus he was only third up so there should be plenty of room for improvement and I’m quite keen on his chances.

Matt Cumani has done a really good job with the mare 10 Sylpheed (Bet Now: $4.40). Once upon a time, she’d struggle beyond 1200m, but the last two runs have come out of nowhere over a staying trip, the latest in the Torney Cup when fifth to Venguer Masque. Hasn’t won in a very long time, but she could have upside as a stayer and potentially has speed in the legs still from the sprinting days.

6 Aagas (Bet Now: $13.00) is an absolute beauty for the Ryan Balfour team who who resumed in the Birthday Cup where he got well off them in the run and was never really a winning threat, but finished off strongly to run a close up fourth to Wasabi Bob. I think the rise to 2600m will really suit him…doubt he wins, but I think he’s an absolute must for multiples here.

I think 9 Behave (Bet Now: $2.80) is ready to win. Ran on the Parks track last Saturday where she was off the map and after getting the dream split at the top of the straight, it looked game over. But I think her condition just gave way late and the hard fit Gougers nabbed her on the peg. Third up now on the bigger track, she should just about be ready. Really like her chances.

3 Kabini (Bet Now: $4.00) does look one of the hardest to beat. Barry Brook has this mare going really well at the moment, having won impressively at this track/distance two back before a close up third at the same scenario behind the above average Crown Fontein. Creeping up in the weights, but is a hard fit/in form mare who should sit off a good speed and launch late.

10 Raging Queen (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained filly who was impressive when winning here first up over the 1050m before racing at the same track/distance a fortnight ago and having no luck at a critical stage when fifth to Two Odd Sox. Third up, so she should just about be ready fitness wise and up to 1200m from the soft gate, with the claim, looks an ideal recipe.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Bondeiger

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 3 Naseeb

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 1 Ice Ghost

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 7, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 7

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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