4/11/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Melbourne Cup day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Flemington on Tuesday, headlined by the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup (3200m). Weather forecast is for showers, track is soft (6) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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3 Brazen Dechambeau (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a good colt for Price/Kent. He had a recent jumpout at Cranbourne when off speed and wide but Beau Mertens (rides him in this race) was swinging and when given a click, gee he moved nicely. Drawn to get good cover, bred to be fine on wet ground…like him here.

2 Tornado Valley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be better for the run under the belt in the Debutant when off speed and held up at times but was good late when eventually clear when third. Bred to swim and he has the race experience under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

1 Knurl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had two runs so he’s well experienced, which is a big tick for these early 2YO races. He won a two horse race at Bendigo last start…the other horse does look limited, but this guy did it comfortably and stable is flying with their juveniles.

Boxed Trifecta 1,2,3,4,5

3 Makdane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the straight bat play for mine. Few weeks between runs since racing over this trip at Caulfield where he bumped into a future Stakes class horse of the future I think in Zambardo, running a game second, but did beat the rest comfortably. Maps perfect, handles wet ground, tough, in form…he’ll do me.

12 Hot Too Go (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a tough campaigner for Danny O’Brien. Loved the way he toughed it out to win at The Valley last start. Credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found to fend them off in a driving go. His confidence is up, should press forward and be around the mark.

8 Jaykayann (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should be at peak fitness. Didn’t mind her at odds last time at Caulfield in the race mentioned above won by Zambardo, but the track was too firm for her and she was never a factor. Wet track on the cards here, I think she’s a must for exotics given she swims and has upside.

Boxed Trifecta 3,8,10,14

I think class will carry 3 Champagne Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) a long way towards victory. Can make a case he should have fought the finish out in the Gloaming two back before going to the Spring Champion where I don’t think he ran the 2000m strongly. Back to 1800m, back miles in grade/depth, Shinn will ride him like the best horse in the race…likeable.

9 Arabian Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good horse for Mick Kent. Just back to 1800m is interesting because he was going to try and get in the Derby so being set for 2500m, but now racing at 1800m…not sure. But, he has the engine under the hood and will be stronger than most late.

6 Island Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) steps up to 1800m for Julius Sandhu after a maiden win over the mile at Cranbourne where he gave them a start and a beating, producing a strong finale, a sustained finale, in winning. Maps to do no work, he’s a knockout chance.

Boxed Trifecta 1,3,4,6,9

4 Street Artist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here for Team Freedman off the back of a couple of sharp wins, the latest at Bendigo when on speed before being clicked up and he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Good test here, but think he can measure up.

2 Pallaton (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings the class, he’s back to 1000m and gets J Mac…plenty to like. He ran in the Brian Crowley last start at Randwick when presented to win and looked the winner but had no answers late for Skyglider. Like him back to 1000m, he clearly appeals.

10 Vangough Bankcheque (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was a big debut winner at Echuca in the way in which he put them away, giving them a start and a beating in such an electric performance. Good test here, but I think he’s a nice horse so keen to see how he goes.

2,4/2,4/2,4,9,10,12

10 Golden Century (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will eat up 2800m and will do me each way. He ran over 2400m at Caulfield last time where I am not sure he was entirely happy around the tighter track but stayed on and was pretty good in defeat. He’ll love the rise in trip and will love getting to Flemington, plus gets the gun himself in Joao Moreira.

8 Arugamama (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and she can go on with it. Andrew Gluyas trained mare that spanked them over 2500m at Morphettville last start. Not sure what she beat vs what she faces here, but she was ridden confidently and made an absolute mess of them. Confidence is up, she appeals.

14 Ferago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) stays all day so 2800m here is ideal for this guy. Outclassed in the Geelong Cup but he stayed on and was quite good in defeat I thought behind Torranzino. The trip is ideal, he’ll keep chipping away and is a must for exotics.

Boxed Trifecta 2,7,8,10,14

12 Real Class (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been specked in early betting and I can see why. I think she is sneaky flying. Few weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Randwick where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never threatening, her finale was really good. Up in trip is ideal, has upside, the query is wet ground but at the price, happy to find out if she handles it.

5 Saint George (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could easily blow these away if he’s ready. He should have won the Seymour Cup fresh I think. He just got badly held up at the wrong time, driving hard late when clear to just miss. Fitter and up in trip, he commands clear respect.

9 Garachico (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Dom Sutton trained stayer that resumes, having not raced since the Sydney Cup when far from disgraced in defeat behind Arapaho. Likely will spot them a start but will be strong late and is one for exotics.

Boxed Trifecta 3,5,6,9,12

I like 6 Presage Nocturne (Bet Now:  $SP.00). I think he’s the one from the Caulfield Cup. He wasn’t ready from a mounting yard perspective, trip short of his best and on a dry-ish track, but loved his finale behind Half Yours. He’s okay on a dry track, but on wet ground, he’ll absolutely thrive and run all day. If the rain comes, I’ll be keen to back him each way.

Prior to the Bart Cummings, 24 Valiant King (Bet Now:  $SP.00) did set looked like a hurdler. But now, he’s a legitimate contender for the Melbourne Cup. Hard run Bart Cummings he loved, was somewhat luckless in the Caulfield Cup…the rider, albeit a previous winner of the Cup, absolutely scares me, but even with that, this horse has to be seriously respected.

2 Buckaroo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a serious contender here. The Cox Plate run was full of merit and it took a gun mare in Via Sistina to beat him. The Cox Plate is usually gold for the Melbourne Cup…I just question whether he runs 3200m. I think he does, on the proviso he draws soft, which I think 12 is. Can settle midfield, touch worse, do no work and be effective late.

9 Absurde (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran arguably the run of the race in the Melbourne Cup last year and he comes back for another crack and gets in well in the weights. He was unlucky in the Caulfield Cup last start but hit the line well and his overseas form prior has been good. He should run a big race from a good barrier and is a great each way chance.

Boxed Trifecta 1,2,3,6,9,15,23,24

8 Burma Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here a few weeks between runs for Chris Waller since racing over 1200m at Rosehill where he seemingly had his chance but may have bumped into a pretty good horse, Pretty Straand. Liked a recent tick over trial from him and he should be effective late.

4 Bacash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up forever it seems like but gee he is racing well. He was given a peach by Zahra at Caulfield and he made a mess of them late, running fast time relative to the meeting. Only has to hold his form and he’ll be around the mark.

5 Vega For Luck (Bet Now:  $SP.00) attempted to lead throughout last start over 1400m in the Guineas Prelude and he gave a good sight given how slow he went in front, only to be nabbed late by Estremo. He’s racing well and is one for exotics.

Boxed Trifecta 1,2,4,5,8

Going to have a throw at the stumps via 8 Eternal Flame (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Mick Kent. This mare hasn’t raced since March 8 over the mile here when down the track in the Matron Stakes behind Jennilala after sitting wide throughout. Given a good break, looks to have jumped out well…I think her best is good enough to give this a shake. Happy to speck at the big price.

15 Surfin Bird (Bet Now:  $SP.00) steps straight up to Stakes grade after a midweek win at Caulfield but the win had to be seen to be believed. Wide no cover throughout but was absolutely trucking in the run before being clicked up and away she went to spank them. Short enough, but is clearly a talent.

14 Ponalowie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope. She was once thought of as a squib but she’s loving racing over the mile, and her last start effort in the Vase behind Oh Too Good at Caulfield was a beauty against the pattern. If she can get a drag into the race, she’ll take beating.

Boxed Trifecta 6,8,14,15,18

5 Cotehele (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps in the last. Michael Hickmott trains this former Sydney galloper, who has been good in a few runs for the stable, the latest coming in the Gawler Cup when off speed and kept chasing in a pretty good effort in defeat behind Air Assault. Back to 1400m, hard fit, and if this track can dry out, I think he’ll run really well.

7 Sunshineinmypocket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Ciaron Maher. He should have won at Caulfield last start but IMO, Logan Bates got handled by Luke Currie on the eventual winner Ndola and it ended up being an ugly watch. Hard fit, big rider upgrade, he appeals.

19 Boltsaver (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been the subject of a strong push at a big price. He is on the back up after racing on Wednesday at Bendigo where I was keen on him there but I thought he just raced a touch flat. The track was too firm I think so back on a track with cushion, down in the weights, he’s a knockout hope.

Boxed Trifecta 3,5,7,12,19

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Street Artist

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Brazen Dechambeau

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Eternal Flame

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One:  1, 2, 6, 9, 24

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 8

Leg Three: 6, 8, 14, 15

Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 12, 19

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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