The Spring Carnival in SA continues this Saturday at Morphettville with a couple of blacktype events, the Penang Trophy (1800m) and the Whylie Handicap (1100m). The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out four metres from the 1200m-400m; Out three metres for the remainder.
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Race One (13:13) : Akeed Mofeed @ Goldin Farms Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: I said it last week but what you see is what you get with 2 Arrow Lane (Bet Now: $7.00). He is a tough bugger who tries his heart out and that was evident on Saturday here where he chased down a handy one in Our Gladiator to grab victory in the shadows of the post. That was 1050m, so I think 1200m will only be a plus, he’s hard fit, in form…safe way to go.
Big Danger: 4 Gogo Grace (Bet Now: $6.00) broke the maiden last week at Gawler in impressive fashion, aided by a good steer from Lindop who knew she was on the best horse in the race and won like it. Ran well in town prior, so that won’t be an issue, and now she has the win under the belt, she can go on with it.
Roughie: 6 Ghenwaa (Bet Now: $12.00) resumed in what didn’t look the strongest maiden at Gawler on August 17 but a lovely ride from Neilson got the daughter of Street Cry home. She is nominated for the Thousand Guineas and Caulfield Classic so the stable must have an opinion of her. $12 does seem overs to my eye.
Race Two (13:48) : Holdfast Insurance Handicap (82) 2500m:
Back Me: 6 Mr Andre (Bet Now: $3.50) ran over 2400m on the Parks track a fortnight back where he was backed at longer odds and the punters got it spot on as he led all the way to spank his rivals, some of which were donkeys it has to be said, but he won nonetheless. Harder here, but he’ll roll forward once again and give some cheek.
Big Danger: 8 Honey Steels Gold (Bet Now: $3.50) has established himself as a handy jumper but his capable on the flat, especially in a race like this. He won under Katie Walsh in a hurdle here three weeks back, beating home Shearer. Flat form, especially in Victoria, has these covered, and he’ll love a wet track.
Roughie: 9 Kiwi Colleen (Bet Now: $9.00) had to make a long searching run in the Mr Andre race, taking off from last 800m out and that effort just saw her have nothing left for the finish and she had to settle for second. Not sure she can turn the tables here, but she’s hard fit, should get a soft trip and is one to include in multiples.
Race Three (14:22) : Anna Olijnyk Handicap (70) 2016m:
Back Me: 2 Birds Of Tokyo (Bet Now: $1.50) had a two run stint in Sydney, starting off with a spank job at Randwick before going to Rosehill where she was game in defeat behind Mandalong Kiss, who ran well in the Kingston Town last weekend, so the form reads very well, she draws well and Michelle Payne steers.
Big Danger: 9 Mandana (Bet Now: $6.00) is on the back up after racing over the mile here last Saturday where she got held up and was dragged back at a crucial stage where the eventual winner bolted clear, but this mare worked home with purpose to run third. Seven day turnaround will be no issue and for mine the extra 400m will be ideal.
Roughie: 11 Unspun (Bet Now: $17.00) ran last Saturday over the mile and was hopeless behind Zipnotized but the couple of keys here are that he is on the seven day back up and is at 2000m for the first time, plus Gatt sticks. Doubt he can win, but perhaps one for exotics.
Race Four (15:03) : Sky ATA Trainers Trust Handicap (75) 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Artie Fred (Bet Now: $4.00) produced a really good finish to win his maiden two back at Donald before backing up seven days later and producing an unbelievable closing sectional to win on the Parks track. He is in career best form at the moment and he strikes another very winnable race, plus I think the bigger track will be ideal.
Big Danger: 1 Counter Spin (Bet Now: $3.60) ran over 1250m on the Parks track a fortnight back where he had a charmed run behind the speed and looked the winner several times down the straight but he couldn’t quite get past stablemate Pepper The Pin and had to settle for second. Costly to follow, but he is consistent and rarely far away.
Roughie: 3 Mossbeat (Bet Now: $4.20) is the very interesting runner. Now with the Hayes/Dabernig stable after formerly being with Robbie Griffiths. Go back to her form from last prep and she was competing in some quality races behind Group l performers. Trial at Tatura was encouraging and if she brings her best, she beats these and comfortably.
Race Five (15:43) : Snooze Mild End Handicap (70) 1050m:
Back Me: 12 Martine (Bet Now: $4.20) was smashed in betting when resuming on Balaklava Cup Day after a 15 month spell and the money was just bang on as she bolted up and won by a space. The query is that she may race flat second up off a long break…but you can’t go past what she did in that resumption.
Big Danger: 10 Red Fire Lady (Bet Now: $4.80) ran on the firm track at Murray Bridge over the short course and was just far too nippy for them, leading throughout to win comfortably. Really good wet track form beside her name and the other plus is that Jamie Kah is back in the saddle.
Roughie: 3 Duckworth (Bet Now: $11.00) is a very interesting runner here. Resumes here for Jon O’Conner after a somewhat disappointing Autumn prep, where for the most part he failed to deliver. He has been given a decent break and looked okay in a trial here on Friday. If he brings his best, he is a definite threat.
Race Six (16:23) : UBET W H Whylie Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 9 Lope De Capio (Bet Now: $5.00) ran over 1000m on the Parks track a fortnight back and was given a beaut steer from Jamie Kah to get the job done in impressive fashion, drawing right away to win with a leg in the air. The big negative with her is that she doesn’t run as well on the course proper, but if she can overcome that record, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Diamond Oasis (Bet Now: $4.00) isn’t his best on a wet track, but given the lack of depth here, I don’t think it will matter. He resumed over 1100m at Caulfield and chased a hot speed throughout but he stuck on okay I thought behind Redzel. This is a very weak race, and if he is near his best, he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: 7 Classy Jack (Bet Now: $31.00) took an absolute eternity to win a race but he did it last Saturday here and against his pattern of leading. He had to chase down the leader which is something he normally doesn’t respond to, but he did last week and got the win. Can that win see him go right on with it? Perhaps.
Race Seven (17:03) : Penang Trophy 1800m:
Back Me: 10 Raw Impulse (Bet Now: $2.10) resumed over the mile at the Valley a fortnight back where he had a soft run near the fence before having a bit of difficulty getting clear. In saying that, he did get out in time but the leader/winner had the fitness edge and a slight weight pull. If he is to be regarded as a Cups horse, he needs to put this field away, and I am confident he will.
Big Danger: He rises big time in grade, but when you have a horse in form like 13 Mr Wonderful (Bet Now: $8.00), he comes into contention. You can’t ignore what he has done in recent times, winning four on the trot, the last three in town, and no matter level or what field you beat, three successive city wins is a sign he is promising. He’ll roll forward from the gate and give his all.
Roughie: 14 Yulong Baby (Bet Now: $9.00) has been given a month freshen up since racing over the 2040m at the Valley where she chased hard throughout to run a close up third to Bold Sniper, beaten just under a length. Stable is very good at sending horses to SA with success and this mare does look well placed.
Race Eight (17:38) : Greg Oates Memorial Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Mio Dio (Bet Now: $13.00) is a horse who will love a heavy track given he saves his best for that kind of surface. He ran over 1400m on the Parks track a fortnight back and stuck on pretty well behind the in form Sandhill Warrior. He’ll be a big improve with the surface and is a major threat.
Big Danger: 7 Portion Control (Bet Now: $2.20) ran three weeks ago over this track/distance when chasing hard throughout but just found one better in the in form Cyclone Thomas, who he meets 3.5kg better off here, so he’ll turn the tables I think. Should get every chance and look the winner at some stage.
Roughie: 17 Sha La La (Bet Now: $31.00) ran last Wednesday at Gawler and came from well off the speed to sprout wings late and get the win. She was a drifter in betting that afternoon, and though rising sharply in grade, she gets really good weight relief here, handles a wet track and at around $41, I could certainly entertain her each way.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 12 Martine
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 10 Raw Impulse
VALUE: Race Eight Number 6 Mio Dio
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9
Leg Three: 10, 13, 14
Leg Four: 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17
$50 Investment= 47.61% of the dividend if successful
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