1/7/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville

The course proper at Morphetville is where Adelaide racing will take place on Saturday, with eight races assembled. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out six metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out two metres from the Winning Post-1800m; Out five metres from the 1800m-1200m.

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4 General Custer (Bet Now: $3.00) has been very good at his past couple for the Andrew Noblet camp. His past two runs have come on the Parks track and both times he has been impressive in winning, each time ridden a treat. Much better suited on that track, but even on the course proper here, he’ll go close.

7 Soaring High (Bet Now: $3.90) ran second to General Custer in a 1950m race on the Parks track and I thought his effort was enormous in defeat. Did a power of work in the run out wide on the course and was very game in defeat to run second. Just needs better luck here and he can turn the tables for sure.

8 Sasun (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the Chosen Angel race here a fortnight back and his effort in defeat was outstanding I thought. Did a power of work out wide and hit the front for a period of time but was nabbed late by the mare. Just needs a bit of luck in running here and she will go close.

12 Truly Discreet (Bet Now: $6.00) is a filly I’m going to keep the faith with. Could make a case that she should have won on debut at Ballarat before going to the Valley where she looked completely lost around the track but once balanced up, she was good to the line. Bigger track now and at start three, she should know what the caper is about.

7 Avanti Rose (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Darren Weir trained filly who was crunched in betting on debut at Warracknabeal and despite getting tired late, she clung on to win. She then ran during the Swan Hill Carnival where she ran over 975m and led at a strong tempo and tried hard but just punctured late behind Daffey Dax. Back to her own age now, and this is a very winnable race.

9 Purrfect Kisses (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Richard Jolly trained filly who ran over 1000m on the Parks track three weeks back and I thought her effort was very good. Got a mile back in the run and closed off her race with real purpose to run a close up second to White Kaps. Up to 1100m on the course proper looks ideal and is a key threat.

2 Pretty Punk (Bet Now: $2.60) is a quality filly for the Macdonald/Gluyas team who looks one of the better bets on the program here. She ran over 2500m here two weeks back where she was crunched late in betting and the punters got it spot on as she raced right away and was dominant. See no reason to jump off.

3 Super Haze (Bet Now: $3.40) was a horse I was keen on in the Pretty Punk race here two weeks ago and on face value, he was disappointing I thought after doing not that much work outside the speed. That does leave me thinking he might not run 2600m, but perhaps with a more patient steer, he will.

6 Duquessa (Bet Now: $12.00) also comes through the Pretty Punk race and despite starting long odds, the mare ran an absolute beauty I thought. Got a mile back in the run and was never really a winning threat, but I liked the way she closed off her race late in the piece. She’ll eat up the extra 100m here and rates highly.

10 Ballista (Bet Now: $11.00) is a smart filly for the David Jolly yard who debuted with a sharp win over the short course at Murray Bridge. Tipped out and resumed there where she didn’t get the greatest amount of luck in the straight when fourth to Sir Charleston. Bigger track and extra trip looks ideal and is the one for me.

7 Seattle Boom (Bet Now: $4.60) is a talented gelding that resumes for the Andrew Noblet yard. His Spring prep was very good for the stable, winning two on the bounce before going to the Valley where he ran a close up second to Big Reel. Jump outs have been quite good and is a definite market watch.

6 Classy Jack (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the quick back up for the Hickmott camp after racing here last Saturday where he was backed at odds. Sat on speed and kicked pretty strongly under Raquel Clark but just felt the pinch late when fifth to Idatwo. Better suited to 1050m here, should lead and take some beating.

1 Gogo Grace (Bet Now: $3.00) looks the one to beat here. Talented filly for the Macdonald/Gluyas yard who ran over the mile here a fortnight back and on first look, she was a bit lucky to win, but screwing it down, she was a brilliant winner. Had to make a searching run out wide and was there to be run down but she kept finding and was really strong to the line. 1800m is no issue and she rates highly.

3 Trogir (Bet Now: $4.80) ran second to Gogo Grace in the 1600m race two weeks ago and she was a touch unlucky though really, she did have her chance to run down Gogo Grace. That does leave me with some queries on her running a strong 1800m, but she does have a touch of class/brilliance about her.

6 Ace Attack (Bet Now: $8.50) is the big improver here. He ran over 2000m here two weeks ago against the older horses and just forget he went around. Stuck wide no cover for the trip and rightfully faded out of the finish when finishing down the track behind Chosen Angel. Better luck here, he’ll go close.

5 Serenely Discreet (Bet Now: $3.40) gets the nod for me here. Really good filly that resumes for the Stokes camp off a three run Spring prep, which ended with a superb win in the Edward Manifold. Has dodged the Autumn and resumes here, which is intriguing, but she did look great in a recent trial win here.

8 Alta Stella  (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Nick Smart trained filly that has been very good in two runs back from a spell. She ran over 1000m on the Parks track four weeks back where she was crunched in betting and aided by a peach of a ride from Jamie Kah, the filly dashed right away and was sharp. Tougher here, but she has race fitness on her side.

1 Time Out (Bet Now: $26.00) was a bit of an outsider when racing over 1100m here a fortnight back but despite that, he toughed it out really strongly on speed and scored a narrow but impressive win. Probably a risk at 1200m against this class of horses, but he does have the fitness edge.

3 Ilgattino (Bet Now: $3.80) is a handy sprinter for the Grant Young camp who is on the seven day back up after racing over 1100m here last Saturday where he got back off the pace and worked home strongly late in the piece when a close up a third to Idatwo. Like that he is on the quick back up and Holder takes over now.

1 Counter Spin (Bet Now: $4.00) was a bit disappointing in the Snake Charmer race that Clonmel failed in, but I think his problem was that he was ridden far too close to the tempo and rightfully faded out of the finish. On his prior runs where he was ridden with cover, I think he can bounce back hard here.

13 Chondra (Bet Now: $18.00) is a tough mare to trust/follow, but she has showed pretty good signs this campaign. Hasn’t quite measured up in town previously, but her last start effort was pretty good I thought in defeat to run third at Murray Bridge. Will go close here with luck from the gate.

12 Sudden Wealth…(Bet Now: $3.30) dear me. I said on Twitter last Saturday her effort was the most painful watch of 2017 and I stand by it. To be frank, she should have bolted in but just had no luck at all and was completely stiff. Up to the mile looks perfect and I don’t mind the quick back up given she didn’t really have a hard run last week.

3 Mr Liberty (Bet Now: $5.50) had really confident market support when racing at this track/distance two weeks back and for his supporters it was nervous times early on in the straight but he eventually got into the clear and savaged the line to score quite an impressive win. Only has to hold his form to go close.

9 Eclair Attack (Bet Now: $9.50) is running out of chances for mine but on his best form he is right up to these. He comes through the Mr Liberty race two weeks ago and I thought his effort was tidy in defeat. Got back off the pace and chased hard but just died on the run late. 1200m-1600m that day, so now he has the the mile run under the belt, he’ll be better off.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 12 Sudden Wealth

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Serenely Discreet

VALUE: Race Four Number 10 Ballista

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3

Leg Two: 5

Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 12, 13

Leg Four: 3, 12

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