Caulfield is where Melbourne racing takes place this Saturday with the Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m) highlighting the card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:50) : TROA Supports Jockey Trust Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Gloriette (Bet Now: $8.50) resumes here for Godolphin after several strong performances last time in some quality races. Trialled well at Rosehill a couple of weeks back and has now been sent to Victoria, which is always a good recipe for success.
Big Danger: 2 Lessyd (Bet Now: $12.00) is another handy type that resumes for Tony McEvoy. He contested some pretty good races last time in, and actually beat the Big Danger home in the Inglis Premier. No trials, so fitness levels are unknown. Market will be the best guide, but on form, he is a leading contender.
Roughie: 1 Hell Of An Effort (Bet Now: $14.00) is talented youngster that resumes for Ciaron Maher after formerly being with Peter Moody. He was last seen here finishing down the track in the Blue Diamond behind Extreme Choice. Looked sharp in a recent jump out and only needs luck from the gate to be a contender.
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Race Two (12:25) : ACJC Racing 101 Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Powerful Story (Bet Now: $8.00) has been given a month freshen up since running a very strong fourth to Petites Reward after sitting wide no cover on speed. Back on her home track here and with normal luck, she will take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Lady Esprit (Bet Now: $4.40) ran over 1100m here a fortnight back and stuck to the task quite gamely when a game fourth to impressive winner Ocean Embers. Getting close to D-Day for her now, but she gets her chance.
Roughie: 14 Single Note (Bet Now: $21.00) ran on the Pakenham Synthetic last Thursday and closed off strongly late to run third to the above average Darren Weir horse Spearhead. Has proven to run well in town prior, only carries 52kg after the claim and draws a soft gate.
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Race Three (13:00) : Wilson Medic One Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Hursley (Bet Now: $4.40) was ridden much closer to the speed over this track/distance two weeks back and that move proved successful when he got the job done. He does appear to be a confidence horse and now that it’s up, he can go on with it.
Big Danger: 2 Fearless Raider (Bet Now: $3.00) was a real eye catcher in the Hursley race, closing off strongly to run fourth, beaten a couple of lengths in what was a really good effort. He has upside and with a more genuine tempo here, he will take some holding out.
Roughie: 11 Tossilini (Bet Now: $61.00) comes here off the back of a run on a bottomless surface at Bendigo over the mile against the older horses behind in form galloper Calibrate. Out to 2000m is going to really suit and he has upside. I’ve seen worse $61 chances.
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Race Four (13:38) : Rockmount Pre-Training Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: 6 Bondeiger (Bet Now: $6.50) was absolutely smashed in betting to win the Longeron race here two weeks ago and he just couldn’t sprint well enough to win and had to settle for a solid fifth. The Weir magic looks as though it will work with this horse, he has upside and the more genuine tempo here will suit him big time.
Big Danger: 1 Longeron (Bet Now: $3.30) was given a great steer from Dunn to get the job done at this track/distance a fortnight back, sitting on speed and fighting on very gamely to get the job done. Starting to creep up in the weights but he is racing so well at the moment and is one of the major threats for sure.
Roughie: 5 Golden Mane (Bet Now: $17.00) has been given a five week let up since running a game third to Araldo Junior over 2500m at Flemington, a race since which has turned out to be a suspect form reference. Gets in well at the weights here though, draws well and likes racing at Caulfield.
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Race Five (14:15) : TAB Supports Jockeys Trust Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Twisting Typhoon (Bet Now: $6.50) ran in the Makatiti race here a fortnight back where she sat on speed and fought on strongly to just miss. Looks really well placed here, fitter and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Mr Individual (Bet Now: $3.20) returns back home after a stint in Queensland which didn’t prove to be fruitful at all. His last run came in the Sunny Coast Guineas where he had his chance behind Tivaci. He does drop a fair bit in depth here and looks to get a good run from the gate, and the claim for Ben Thompson helps.
Roughie: 7 Portion Control (Bet Now: $8.00) resumed on the Pakenham Synthetic a tick under a month back when running second to Stormcraft, who failed with excuses here a fortnight back and does meet 2kg better off here. Draws well, enormous upside and gets the services of Dwayne Dunn.
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Race Six (14:55) : National Jockeys Trust Plate (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Camdus (Bet Now: $3.90) resumed over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and closed off strongly when a close up second to the well backed Heza Ripper. He has enormous upside and looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 5 Caprese (Bet Now: $11.00) comes through the Heza Ripper race where he got a long way back in the run and finished off well without winning. He has been in ripping form for some time now and is a definite threat.
Roughie: 11 I’m Ablaze (Bet Now: $17.00) comes through the Heza Ripper also where he got back in the run and didn’t have a great deal of luck yet worked home pretty well late in the piece. Can sit a touch closer from the gate here I suspect and he is a definite knockout chance.
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Race Seven (15:35) : LUCRF Supports Jockeys Trust Plate 1400m:
Back Me: I honestly don’t know what they are doing with 4 Lord Durante (Bet Now: $17.00) and riding him back because it just isn’t working. He is at his best when he goes to the front and rolls along. If that eventuates here, gee I think he’ll take some stopping. If they ride him midfield, throw your ticket out.
Big Danger: 3 Duke Of Brunswick (Bet Now: $2.70) was given a 12/10 from Dunn to win here a fortnight back, getting the lovely sit off the speed before cutting back to the inside and dashing clear late to get the job done. Run of the race from the gate here again IMO, and it’s hard to find a negative.
Roughie: 9 The New Boy (Bet Now: $13.00) ran in that Duke Of Brunswick race where he did some work to sit on speed and felt the pinch late when running fourth. He is right down in the weights now, and he has the speed to take care of the tricky gate. Knockout chance.
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Race Eight (16:15) : PFD Food Services Sir John Monash Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: If 13 Wild Rain (Bet Now: $6.50) runs up to her jump out at Flemington a couple of weeks back, she’ll be winning here. Her form regardless reads very well, but the jump outs have really taken me. First up record doesn’t read great, but she looks ready to win fresh.
Big Danger: 1 Fast ‘N’ Rocking (Bet Now: $3.70) has been given a little freshen up since running a cracking fourth to Black Heart Bart in the Goodwood at Morphettville. The WFA scenario here really suits this galloper, he loves Caulfield and this isn’t the strongest race he has contested.
Roughie: 15 Atmospherical (Bet Now: $8.50) is the barrier trial version of Black Caviar. Looks like a world beater at the trials, but doesn’t quite put it all together on race day. Her recent trial win on the Pakenham Synthetic was very impressive, she runs well fresh and if the speed is on, she’ll be charging late.
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Race Nine (16:50) : Mypunter.com Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Vibrant Rouge (Bet Now: $4.80) ran a cracking race here a fortnight back where she closed off strongly when a close up fifth to A Lotta Love. Was due to run last Saturday but was scratched and instead comes here. Ticks plenty of boxes for me.
Big Danger: It’s hard to ignore the way 8 Beirut (Bet Now: $3.40) is racing at the moment. She ran at Sandown last Wednesday, and though suited by the on speed bias, she absolutely bolted in despite carrying 59.5kg against the boys also. Tumbles down in weight, back on her home track and she is a mare in super form.
Roughie: 2 My Sister Lil (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy mare that resumes for John Price. The former WA mare is Stakes class when at her best, and her two runs at Caulfield, both in the Autumn, resulted in efforts behind Tuscan Sling and Azkadellia. That form should really measure up here, she flies fresh and this is a winnable race.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 13 Wild Rain
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 9 Camdus
VALUE: Race Seven Number 4 Lord Durante
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11
Leg Two: 3, 4, 8, 9
Leg Three: 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10
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