An excellent card of racing has been assembled to be run and won at Randwick this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:40) : Global Independent QC & Inspection Maroubra Mile 1600m:
Back Me: 3 Great Esteem (Best Odds: $3.20) was ridden aggressively by McEvoy at Rosehill a fortnight back, going forward from a wide gate and that move proved to be the winning one as the gelding sat on speed and kicked on very strongly. He was only second up here, so he has plenty of upside left and he is a winner at his lone Randwick outing.
Big Danger: The rain that has hit Randwick will definitely be in the favour of 7 Marenostro (Best Odds: $2.50) who loves it wet. He did well winning first up last time out and his form suggests he is better second up which he is today. Looks the main danger to our on top selection and will take a lot of beating.
Roughie: 5 Slow Pace (Best Odds: $7.00) resumed behind Medcaut in that race mentioned above, and he closed off quite well I thought for a horse who hadn’t shown any decent form since May. He has had his injury problems, but on his best form, he’d beat these, and the first up run was an excellent hitout, so don’t be surprised if he wins this.
Race Two (13:20) : Agribaba/Aunong.com Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Mount Panorama (Best Odds: $2.80) debuts here for Team Hawkes after a nice trial last week at Rosehill where he sat back before peeling out and letting down nicely under little pressure to run second. Stable knows what to do with their youngsters and this one looks pretty good.
Big Danger: 11 Miss Ballantine (Best Odds: $5.00) i thought was good in her two trials to date showing she can handle a rain affected track. Waller never rushes his 2YO’s so you know he is confident she is forward enough to be right in the finish today.
Roughie: 1 Canny Rocket (Best Odds: $11.00) debuted at Gosford and worked home well late to run third to My Country, beaten just under two lengths. He does meet the winner 1.5kg worse off here, but he draws well and I think he has more upside.
Race Three (13:55) : Young Farming Champions Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Miss Royale (Best Odds: $1.85) looks the way to go. Barnstorming first up win at Warwick Farm followed up by a third to Selita where she seemingly had her chance, but got laboured by the 60kg impost. Tumbles 7kg here and meets Selita 5kg better at the weights, so I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t turn the tables.
Big Danger: 4 Selita (Best Odds: $2.70) would have been something licked had she not won that race given she got badly held up behind the leader before eventually getting clear and bursting through to win impressively. The weight reason makes her a risk on one hand, but on the other, she gets the services of Hugh Bowman from a soft gate.
Roughie: 1 In A Wink (Best Odds: $10.00) ran over 1200m here three weeks back where she worked home nicely late to run fifth to Tree Of Jesse, who will be a good chance later on in the program. Probably not that well in at the weights, but she is a Stakes winner who does run well at Randwick.
Race Four (14:30) : Australian Horse Racing Federation Handicap (92) 2000m:
Back Me: Don’t see why 2 Loophole (Best Odds: $3.30) can’t greet the judge here. He trialled very well prior to running over 1900m at Rosehill a couple of weeks back where he sat back before peeling out and letting down strongly to score a decisive victory. He was only second up there, so he should have plenty of upside left and this is a very winnable race.
Big Danger: 5 Dance Of Heroes (Best Odds: $4.20) ran third in that race Loophole saluted in, and his effort was more than satisfactory in defeat. He has been up for a long time, but he continues to race well and earn a cheque for connections, so I think why he continues to that, he’ll keep racing and his form has to be respected.
Roughie: 7 Banksters Bonus (Best Odds: $16.00) drops a fair bit in grade after contesting the Summer Cup last time out where he ran a disappointing sixth of seven behind Mighty Lucky. He is trained on the track and this is probably the easiest race he has contested in some time. On his best form, he’d go very close.
Race Five (15:05) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Hermosa Beach (Best Odds: $3.00) was Black Caviar-esque in terms of how easy she won last time out at Canberra, aided by a peach of a steer from Brenton Avdulla. Harder here, but the form has been franked with a couple of subsequent winners coming out of that Canberra race, plus the stable has a great record in the Highway races.
Big Danger: Had Hermosa Beach not been in the race, I’d be all over 13 Another Valley (Best Odds: $11.00). Her run in a Highway race at Rosehill a couple of weeks back was excellent. She got further back than anticipated and got held up a touch, but she worked home nicely late. She’ll lap up the extra 100m here as well as the bigger track, and she is only carrying 50kg. Definite threat.
Roughie: 4 Sir Hagrid (Best Odds: $10.00) was nominated for the Highway races on a couple of occasions before trained Todd Howlett elected to run him on Gilgandra Cup Day, where he looked a good thing and ran accordingly, winning quite easily. The trainer obviously thinks he can measure up and on that last start effort, I think he can too.
Race Six (15:45) : Top Ideal SCM Handicap (72) 1200m:
Back Me: Really keen on 1 Stravigo (Best Odds: $4.80). He has won two races this time in, with a Wyong Magic Millions failure in between the lowlight behind stablemate Flippant. But I was quite taken with his win on New Years Day here against the older horses, and he won with a touch of class and authority. Time was sharp also, and that was with 59.5kg on his back. He looks a great bet.
Big Danger: 4 River Wild (Best Odds: $7.00) resumed at Rosehill and just looked to be in need of the run when fourth to Sir Bacchus, who ran well without much luck in the Magic Millions Guineas last weekend. River Wild should be better off here and is racing on his home track.
Roughie: I don’t think 5 Cruise Power (Best Odds: $5.00) beat much on debut at Warwick Farm last Wednesday, but credit where credit is due. He was first up on a heavy track and led all the way. It’s rare for Chris Waller horses to win on debut, but the good ones usually do, so he should measure up for mine, and I think he will be much better on a firmer track.
Race Seven (16:25) : Summer Sprint 1000m:
Back Me: I was quite keen on 2 Diamond Oasis (Best Odds: $2.70) in the Bat Out Of Hell (900m) at the Gold Coast after a brilliant trial, and aided by a lovely ride from Dwayne Dunn, the Joe Pride trained galloper proved far too good. He has a very good record at Randwick and looks the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 3 Boss Lane (Best Odds: $2.80) probably has best form in the race given he comes through the Razor Sharp and Canterbury Classic, where both times he was close up behind in form mare Cradle Me. Back to the 1000m looks perfect and he does save his best for Randwick.
Roughie: This race has been seriously hit by scratchings so it is tough to find any value although despite his recent form 1 Big Money (Best Odds: $3.80) could prove hard to beat on a soft track at a bit of value in what is a very thin race on paper after scratchings.
Race Eight (17:05) : Pintang Cup (85) 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Soros (Best Odds: $8.50) for me at a price. Made his debut for Joe Pride in the Canterbury Classic (1200m) where he sat last in the run before making up nice ground out wide behind Cradle Me. He is much better on firmer footing, Avdulla rides, draws well…bit surprised to see $17 on offer.
Big Danger: 11 Tree Of Jesse (Best Odds: $3.40) ran over 1200m here on Boxing Day where she was wide all the way yet kept surging under hard riding from Jason Collett to get the win she deserved. I think she saves her best for tracks with give in it, so the firm conditions are some concern, but she has a touch of class on her side.
Roughie: 1 Liberty’s Choice (Best Odds: $15.00) is a talented type that resumes for Gai Waterhouse with Hugh Bowman riding, so he’ll carry all of the 62.5kg. That will be a tough ask, but he is classy and his two trials leading in have been pretty good.
Race Nine (17:45) : National Farmers Federation Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: One of the best $34 chances I’ve come across here in the shape of 6 Mydream (Best Odds: $13.00). This is probably D-Day for her IMO, because her runs this time in have been fantastic without much luck, the latest coming last week at Canterbury where she got too far back yet charged home to be beaten less than two. She finally draws a decent gate, bigger track, ideal trip, Jess Taylor remains, firmer track helps and keep in mind that the last two times she has backed up in less than 14 days, it has resulted in a second and a win at Warwick Farm. No way does she deserve to be $34.
Big Danger: 5 Frank Who (Best Odds: $8.50) ran over this track/distance on New Years Day where he did a bit too much work on speed yet fought on very well to run a close up fourth to Kanji, beaten just under a length. Gets a 2kg weight swing on that horse, so I am confident he can turn the tables, and third up, he should be ready fitness wise.
Roughie: 14 Cabeza De Vaca (Best Odds: $12.00) is rising in grade, but should not be underestimated. His win at Kembla Grange was huge IMO given he missed the start then was punched along to lead at a decent tempo. Could have been excused for throwing in the towel, but the Waterhouse bone and muscle kicked in and he was too good. He’ll roll along here and give them something to chase.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Diamond Oasis
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 6 Mydream
VALUE: Race Eight Number 10 Soros
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 10, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 14, 15
$50 Investment= 27.77% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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