A strong card of racing has been set down for Flemington on Saturday, where the feature race is the $120,000 Listed Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:25) : Better Beyond Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Bringaroo (Best Odds: $3.30) bolted up at Geelong on Boxing Day, leading all the way to spank his rivals by over four lengths. Meets the runner up here at the same weights, so I can’t see him turning the tables, so he goes on top for me.
Big Danger: 7 Climate (Best Odds: $6.50) debuted on his home track at Caulfield on Boxing Day and worked home well without threatening when running fourth to Hell Of An Effort. Blinkers go immediately on and Dwayne Dunn is booked. Watch for market moves.
Roughie: 5 Lessyd (Best Odds: $9.00) was the horse that ran second to Bringaroo, and he did a pretty good job considering he was back near last in the run and forced wide on the turn. Williams jumps on and he draws to be out of trouble and have the last say.
Race Two (13:00) : Owner.racing.com Handicap (90) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Miss Softhands (Best Odds: $2.70) has been impressive in both runs this time in, each resulting in soft wins in easier grade, the latest at Ladbrokes Park where she plenty wrong but was too good. Ticks all the boxes for me, but the negative is that she does have feet issues, and she’ll likely strong a rock hard surface. But I’ll take the gamble.
Big Danger: 6 Blendwell (Best Odds: $9.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Peter Moody. Her last start was in July when ridden to perfection by Dwayne Dunn to win at the Valley. Loved her recent jump out, and I like the fact she resumes at 1400m.
Roughie: 1 Whistle Baby (Best Odds: $10.00) produced a decent finish to win first up at Moonee Valley before working home well from the back to run seventh to Danestroem, beaten just over three lengths. Back on her home track and she should no work from the gate, so that should offset the 60kg.
Race Three (13:37) : Seascay Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: Really keen on 5 Pattern (Best Odds: $4.80). He wasn’t wanted in betting when debuting at Echuca, but gee he showed a lovely turn of foot when presented by Michelle Payne and raced away for a dominant win, and the time he ran was clearly quicker than the two other 1400m races run on the same program, which is always a good guide IMO. Stable knows when to bring them to town, and he should take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Tyrannize (Best Odds: $8.00) ran over 1200m at Caulfield and wasn’t far off Golden Spin, who bolted up last Saturday to frank the form. I think he is looking for 1400m now, and outside Pattern, this is a pretty thin race, so he has to be rated as a threat, and a serious one at that.
Roughie: 11 Chiatorio (Best Odds: $34.00) is making quite a large step up from a mid week meeting although i thought his win showed he had quite a lot of upside and this isn’t an overly strong city meeting race. He attacked the line strong and the Flemington straight looks like it will suit him perfectly. Will go around at big odds and looks a blow out chance.
Race Four (14:12) : Rain Lover Handicap 2500m:
Back Me: It’s hard to tip against a Darren Weir runner that has a picket fence next to his name, so I’ll stick with 2 Leica Day (Best Odds: $3.50). He looked gone on the turn last start at Moonee Valley but once he got balanced up, he really surged under hard riding from Jordan Childs and in the end won impressively. Harder here, but he gets some weight relief and he gives the impression he’ll handle the 2500m.
Big Danger: 3 Danjeu (Best Odds: $3.70) ran in the Bagot (2800m) on New Years Day and was given every chance by Ben Melham, but he just felt the pinch late when a close up second to Mujadale. Back to the 2500m is perfect and Craig Williams is back on.
Roughie: 8 Ferro Nero (Best Odds: $7.50) is the one on the up. He was scratched from Wednesday to tackle this harder race. He comes through a win at Ladbrokes Park where he let down with a powerful finishing burst to win impressively despite doing a bit wrong in the straight. Trained on the track and he only has to carry 52kg on his back after the claim for Mick Dee.
Race Five (14:47) : Mitty’s Racing Colours Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Boomwaa (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over this distance at Moonee Valley a fortnight back where he was very unlucky not to run second to Sirbible, getting badly held up and checked at a vital stage on the turn. He has run well down the straight before and is knocking on the door to win one.
Big Danger: 11 Star Stealer (Best Odds: $5.00) ran over the short course at the Valley and while he got held up a touch, I thought he had his chance to pick up behind surprise winner Runsati. He has won down the straight previously, and third up now, he should be just about ready fitness wise, plus how can you dismiss anything the stable saddles up.
Roughie: 15 Duibio (Best Odds: $11.00) was having his first run for Ciaron Maher in that Sirbible race mentioned above, and it was a day where it was impossible to make up ground out wide, so forgive him. He was kept safe in the market, so I’ll respect that, and he draws to stalk and ambush, plus he gets the services of Nick Hall.
Race Six (15:26) : Inglis Dash 1100m:
Back Me: Hard to top against 4 Hellbent (Best Odds: $2.50). Was far from disgraced down this course in the Coolmore behind Japonisme before being freshened up and running a game second to Lady Sniper in the Inglis Sprint at Randwick. Recent Rosehill trial win was outstanding and he should take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Gold Symphony (Best Odds: $4.40) is a talented galloper that resumes for Peter Moody. He won a couple of the early three year old races during the Carnival, highlight by his win over subsequent Caulfield Guineas placegetter Ready For Victory in the McNeil. Hasn’t caught my attention at the jump outs, but given this is a $250,000 race, expect him to be wound up to win, and he is well placed under the weights scale.
Roughie: 9 Geoff (Best Odds: $17.00) resumes here for Robbie Griffiths. This gelding debuted on the Pakenham Synthetic and was very dominant in winning there. Time was solid and there have been two subsequent winners coming from that race. No trials, but he creates interest for me, so watch for market moves.
Race Seven (16:06) : Chester Manifold Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Zupacharged (Best Odds: $3.80) is bursting to win a race, and I think he gets his chance here. All three of his runs this time in have been great, with his last two at this track behind Durendal. Draws well, on the minimum and is crying out for 1400m, which he gets here.
Big Danger: 2 Tried And Tired (Best Odds: $4.60) comes through the Standish (1200m) where he stuck on well to run fourth to Durendal, beaten just under a length. meets Zupacharged 1.5kg worse off at the weights, but is getting fitter and Olly is aboard.
Roughie: 9 Tudor (Best Odds: $16.00) ran over this track/distance last time out and stuck to the task quite gamely when fourth to Underestimation, beaten just under three lengths. He looks the lone leader here, and with Gauci aboard, he’ll give plenty of cheek.
Race Eight (16:46) : Piping Lane Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: I’ve landed on 10 Allergic (Best Odds: $4.50). He hasn’t had a great deal of luck in all three runs this time in, but I thought he was really good in running second to Second Bullet last start over this track/distance, getting held up a touch before duck and weaving his way through. Williams jumps on from a good gate, and fourth up now, he should be ready.
Big Danger: 8 Second Bullet (Best Odds: $3.60) posted quite a dominant win at the course and distance last time out and he gets in very well in the weights here. He sits on the speed and makes his own luck and against a similar quality field he will again be very hard to beat.
Roughie: 11 Warrior King (Best Odds: $9.00) was a lovely winner first up at Ladbrokes Park, then was simply awful at Caulfield behind Leica Day, who franked the form by winning seven days later. Prepared to forgive him for that, because the first up win was impressive and he has upside.
Race Nine (17:26) : Tauto Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Danger Close (Best Odds: $13.00) looks a great each-way bet for mine. He ran behind Rough Justice over this track/distance and worked home strongly late between runners after getting held up about 300m out. He has a booming finish on him, so if Newitt can get him clear and truck up behind something, he’ll take some holding out.
Big Danger: 6 Pink Perfection (Best Odds: $4.20) rises up to open company but there was plenty to like about her first up win on her home track at Caulfield off the back of an impressive jump out. She carved over from the wide gate, controlled the race and never looked in doubt. Only carries 52.5kg here, so she’ll take some beating for sure.
Roughie: If they do go hard, 3 Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $16.00) will be suited. She is a bit of a non winner, but she has contested some good races in her time, mostly at Stakes level. Resumes with no trial, but stable is flying and she loves racing at Flemington.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 4 Hellbent
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Pattern
VALUE: Race Nine Number 4 Danger Close
Leg One: 4
Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9
Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
$50 Investment= 28.57% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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