16/9/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Nicopolis Stakes day

A monster eleven race program will be run and won at Belmont on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Leaning the way of 3 Don’t Trust Judas (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He has been pretty good since joining Team Williams, winning the maiden in good style two back at Pinjarra before going to Belmont a couple of weeks ago where he got too far back in the run and did make up ground but was never really a threat. Back in trip I like and with a more positive ride, he’ll take beating.

6 Diamond Tipped (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Caught the eye first up over 1400m at Pinjarra when closing off well enough before going to 1200m here where he just found them a tad sharp but was pretty good to the line. Back up to 1400m and hard fit now, he appeals.

2 Speed Bubble (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Demerit for Adam Durrant that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since March 19 at Geraldton when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind Unbreakable. First up at 1400m tells me there is some level of intent and his best is good enough to be dangerous.

4 Rulelee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems a relatively straight bat option. Susan Olive trains this mare, who comes into this off a win, with that victory coming over 1200m here when a narrow but impressive winner, aided by a lovely steer from CJP. This race seems no harder, she maps ideally again and IMO should prove hard to beat.

Fitter and up to 1300m are two big ticks for 7 Lady Toronado (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This mare resumed over 1100m at Northam where she got a fair way out of her ground and while she was never a threat, she did make up headway in a solid effort. Might want one more run but her best is certainly good enough to say she can win.

9 Enticing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous. On the quick back up after racing last Thursday at Northam where she got back and was chasing from a fair way out but ran through the pain barrier and was strong to the line. Has run well at metro level previously and overall, this isn’t a deep race.

5 Chuck A Luck (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he is in for a good prep and seems hard to beat against these. He resumed over the mile two weeks ago, a trip clearly short of his best, but I actually liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind the very much in form Starry Heights. He might want one more run, but off that return, I think he has to rate as the one to beat.

3 Villeins (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing in super form for Team Williams. He was three weeks between runs when racing here a fortnight back where I thought Pike gave him every chance but he just wasn’t quite good enough when second to Candelight Supper. Pike sticks and overall, the depth here is a bit on the thin side, so he rates highly.

1 Bad Wolf (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope. He ran third in the Candelight Supper race mentioned above where he was 1600m to 2200m and took a while to get into his work but he kept finding the line pretty well late in the piece. He has that 2200m run under the belt, which should hold him in relatively good stead for this.

9 Platinum Class (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. She doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but she is an honest mare. Ran two weeks ago at this track/distance and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite get the win when second to Paddy’s Flyin. Maps to get an ideal run in transit and strikes a winnable race on paper.

4 Seduce Me (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Simon Miller trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since August 2022 when failing to see out the mile when down the track behind Marlize. The long time off is interesting but she did trial well last week here and her best is clearly good enough to take this out. I think watch the market and see what it does.

5 Highfriar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Blackfriars that is first up and his best is good enough to be dangerous. He hasn’t raced since April 9 when racing over 1200m at Albany when wide no cover for the trip and that hard run just told late in the piece when down the track behind Sneaky Fox. Overall, this isn’t a strong race, so he doesn’t need to be a star to measure up.

1 On Patrol (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he is heading in the right direction for Team Casey. Market said he had three legs when resuming over 1200m and ran accordingly before going to 1400m where they rode him with a sit in the field of five, he gave them a start and gave them a beating. Back to 1300m should be fine given the tempo will be more genuine and he will be strong late.

4 Royal Toronado (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an engine under the hood. Team Williams trained three year old that caught the eye on debut at Pinjarra before going to Northam where he was ridden with more intent, settled closer in the run and was impressive late in drawing clear and winning. Maps ideally and stable is absolutely flying at the moment.

8 Only Us (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1300m. He debuted two weeks back over 1200m here where he got a fair way out of his ground, settling last, and while he was never a threat, he made up headway in a good effort. He’d be a moral in a 1400m maiden IMO but here at 1300m at this level, I think he is a must for multiples.

2 Brave Venture (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Brad Graham trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since April 29 when a closing second to Catalpa at Ascot after getting a mile out of his ground. He looked like he would be in for a ripping prep but was spelled. Trialled well leading in and strikes a winnable race.

3 Cross Statement (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and look to give his all. He did that a fortnight back at this track/distance and seemingly had every chance in front. Just couldn’t quite hold out the promising Berbere. Last bit will test but he’ll give himself every chance.

5 Becalotti (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Tianna Robertson trains this mare, who has been kept on ice since an impressive win on July 29 when handling the wet track best to score. Think she will be spotting them a start but will be quite strong at the end.

Having a throw at the stumps in the shape of 4 Megazone (Bet Now:  $SP.00). I think he is sneaky flying this guy but is just crying out for a firm deck. If he gets it here, I think he’s in with a big shout. He ran two weeks ago at this track/distance and for mine, was far from disgraced in defeat behind Starry Heights in a race which had far more depth than this. Each way all day.

2 Pompey (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at the mile but gives every indication like it will be okay. He ran a fortnight back over 1400m here where he was near the speed throughout and tried his guts out but just didn’t have the finale of Aztec Ruler. Pike is on, good racing style, hard to beat.

7 Annihilator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rises to metro grade but does have a good record at Belmont. He comes here off a win, which came at this trip at Northam where he had the A1 run in transit and in a driving finish, he got the job done. Not sure he has the quality to beat these, but with the right run in transit, he can finish top four.

2 Rumour Says (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found that winning feeling again and she can go on with it. Luke Fernie trained mare that looks to have returned in pretty good order and comes here off a win, which came two weeks ago at this track/distance, just getting the better of the very much in form Vogue’s Choice. Third up, hard fit, Pike sticks, very likeable.

5 Thomas Magnum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous for Team Gangemi. He resumed in the race mentioned above won by Rumour Says and given the race shape, he had no hope of winning, and actually did a good job to get as close as he did. If the tempo is more genuine, he’ll be dangerous.

6 Cut The Talk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He hasn’t raced since August 26 when a gutsy second to Little Strawberry where he had his chance I thought but wasn’t beaten too far. Not sure he has the quality to win but is a must for exotics.

2 Megami (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare that resumes and although 1400m is on the short side for her, she is the clear class runner and Pike booked tells me there is intent. She hasn’t raced since the WA Oaks over 2400m when a gutsy fourth to She’s Fit where she had her chance but just didn’t see the trip out. Like her kicking off at 1400m and with Pike aboard, that’s enough to make me lean her way.

5 Laquetta’s Gift (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing really well for Dion Luciani and has to rate as one of the leading contenders. She ran a fortnight back at this track/distance where she got a mile out of her ground but charged late to run second, clocking some of the best late splits of the meeting. If she can settle closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

7 Fly Away Home (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Dan Morton after racing last Saturday over the mile here where he got a decent sit in transit behind the speed and was there to threaten but couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Romancing The Rock. Back to 1400m I like, especially if it is truly run, because he will be one of the strongest late.

10 Rokanori (Bet Now:  $SP.00) might want further than 1200m but off the first up run, I have to be with him. He resumed two weeks ago in the Jolly Beggar where he got a fair way out of his ground but I loved the way he closed his race off behind Long Beach, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting. Fitter, up in trip, firmer footing, think he only runs well.

Back to 1200m I do like for 3 Mood Swings (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He comes here with fresh legs, six weeks between runs since contesting the Jockey Celebration over 1400m where he scooted along on speed and was entitled to knock up but he kept finding and was only run down late by Flying Missile. Back to 1200m, good racing style, hard to beat.

11 Tadweer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big improver. He ran in the Jolly Beggar where he just got too far back and was never a factor behind Long Beach, but I will say he did make ground. Like him up to 1200m and if the gate is used to advantage to settle closer in the run, he’s dangerous enough to take this out.

4 Magnificent Andy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back enormous and with that in mind, he’s clearly the one to beat. He resumed three weeks ago over 1200m here where he didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight yet despite that, he found the line with purpose when second to Red Fifty Three. Fitter, up to 1400m, rub of the green…could be a case of good luck beating him.

7 Ponyo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing very well for Team Williams and commands respect. He looked the winner when racing a fortnight back at this track/distance but just didn’t have the finale of Aztec Ruler, who gave his rivals a start and a beating. I think 1400m sees him right out but with the last start under the belt, it should hold him in good stead here.

6 Knot Secret (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a So Secret gelding for Steve Wolfe that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since June 17 over the mile here when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Position Of Power after seemingly getting every chance. Not a noted fresh horse, but 1400m fresh signals some level of intent and maps ideally.

BEST BET: Race Eleven Number 4 Magnificent Andy

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Brave Venture

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 10 Rokanori

Quaddie Tips (Races Eight Through To Eleven):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10, 11

Leg Four: 4

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