15/1/2014 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Caulfield

Caulfield will host a strong eight race card this Wednesday, and take note that due to the extreme weather conditions, the races have been brought forward.

[include file=”inpost_adrotator.php”]

Race One: Jacob Park Thoroughbreds Plate 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Really hard race to kick off the day. Putting Sakitto (Best Odds: $4.50) on top here. Made his debut over this track/distance on December 11 where he finished a close up second to impressive winner Wawail. Has the race experience on his belt and the Snowden polish.
Big Danger: Fontein Ruby (Best Odds: $1.75) was a bit stiff over this track/distance on debut when second to Empress O’Reilly. He got hampered by the winner close to home, but wasn’t going to beat him. Drawn the paint for Olly, hard to beat.
Roughie: Cautious (Best Odds: $7.00) is on debut for Robert Smerdon. Yet to be seen in public, but is well bred and has the services of Craig Williams, which is a positive lead.

$250 Sakitto Free Bet

Race Two: Cable Beach Club Resort/Spa Maiden 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Vintage Cognac (Best Odds: $4.20) ran a couple of cracking races during the Winter without winning. On debut he ran second to Prince Harada at Ballarat, then finished second at Flemington to stakes performer Lady Lakshmi. If he brings that form here, he simply wins. Just being first up and the fact he might want it a touch further has made me not put him on top.
Big Danger: Moment Of Design (Best Odds: $4.20) ran some really good races at this track during the Winter in far tougher company than what he faces here. He will have improved physically from his first preparation and looks a serious threat to the top tip.
Roughie: Caprese (Best Odds: $9.00) has produced two seconds from as many career outings, and both times he has been quite good, running on from the back. Meets a couple of handy ones here, but does look promising and Michael Walker has been in sparkling form in recent weeks.

$250 Vintage Cognac Free Bet

Race Three: Sportius International Events Maiden Plate 1440m Form Guide

Back Me: In a very thin maiden race, I’ll go with the Darley first starter Deliberate (Best Odds: $5.00). Yet to be seen in public, but is well bred and strikes a winnable race first up.
Big Danger: Kansha (Best Odds: $6.50) was the real eye catcher on debut at Terang, settling a long way back in the run before poking through near the inside over the final 300m and savaging the line. He’ll appreciate the firmer surface and rise in distance, plus has the polish of Darren Weir and the services of Brad Rawiller.
Roughie: Leka Secret (Best Odds: $11.00) was ridden well by Zahra at Cranbourne last time out, and looked the winner as they straightened up, but was grabbed in the last 100m by a well backed Moody runner, Saguaro. Drawn beautifully here, and is rock hard fit.

$250 Deliberate Free Bet

Race Four: Salt & Pepper Handicap (70) 2430m Form Guide

Back Me: Very, very ordinary staying race. The horse on the up here is The Princeling (Best Odds: $13.00), who was a top winner last time out at Warrnambool, beating them comfortably and running through the line at the end of 2017m suggests that the 2430m here won’t be an issue.
Big Danger: Duplicity Jones (Best Odds: $3.30) looked the winner last start at the Valley, but he just couldn’t get past Settler’s Way in a thrilling finish. That is the concern stepping up to 2430m, but I’ll bank on the theory that he was only third up there, so maybe there is improvement.
Roughie: Red Fella (Best Odds: $6.00) faced his toughest test last start at the Valley and had absolutely no luck from the 600m onwards, but gee he had been impressive in two runs prior. Should have won first up at Mount Gambier, then made amends at Terang, aided by a crack ride from Nikita Beriman. Bossy remains with the horse from the Valley, and with normal luck, he can be in the finish.

$250 The Princeling Free Bet

[include file=”inpost_adrotator.php”]

Race Five: Equiano Speed Yearlings Handicap (84) 1440m Form Guide

Back Me: Stepping up to 1440m and getting to a bigger track will suit the Team Cummings runner Duet (Best Odds: $7.00), who was given a peach by Nolen to win two back at the Valley before a game and luckless fourth at that same track to Beach Front in a messy race. With some luck, she is a definite chance.
Big Danger: Maglissa (Best Odds: $13.00) has been very impressive in two runs back from a break. Stormed home to win first up at Bairnsdale, then was very stiff when second to Vixen Hustler, where she again rocketed to the line late. Back up to city level, but in a race marred by scratchings, she gets her chance.
Roughie: Text’n Hurley (Best Odds: $3.70) is the best horse in the race, and on her best form, she’d beat these comfortably. Her first up run was just fair without being too special, but she is up to 1440m now, fitter and Williams rides.

$250 Duet Free Bet

Race Six: Tvn Handicap (78) 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Prince Stratum (Best Odds: $2.90) can be forgiven for his failure two back at the Valley as a heavily backed favourite because I think, due to circumstances, he was ridden a touch too close to the tempo, and he was left in front a fair way from home, which isn’t his go. His last start second is the way to ride him. Sit him off the pace, midfield or a touch worse, and bring him down the outside. He just couldn’t quite pick up the tearaway leader and eventual winner, but coming back to this level, and with a senior rider on board, he looks one of the better bets on the card.
Big Danger: General Groove (Best Odds: $7.00) was the eye catcher in the Valley race Prince Stratum failed in. He had trialled well prior to that run, so he has obviously returned in grand order, and does meet Prince Stratum better at the weights from that run.
Roughie: Timely Truce (Best Odds: $11.00) returned from a break with a top win at Benalla, aided by a good ride from Chad Schofield, who retains the ride. On his day, he is a good horse, and is a blacktype winner. One to watch coming back to city level.

$250 Prince Stratum Free Bet

Race Seven: Guinot International Handicap (78) 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Best bet on the program for me in Truffle (Best Odds: $11.00). Loved her first run back from a spell at Flemington. Loomed to win 150m out, but she just peaked on her run late. She carried 58kg there. Drops to 52kg here, drops a touch in depth apart from one or two horses, drawn well…ticks all the boxes for me.
Big Danger: Lord Of The Sky (Best Odds: $1.60) had trialled like a star prior to his first up win over this track/distance. That’s all it was for a $1.45 favourite- a win. Nothing special, and Robbie Laing said that himself on the radio the morning after, so she’d want to improve a bit to beat these, but she is very capable despite drawing terribly.
Roughie: Spartini (Best Odds: $21.00) has had two runs back from a break, both down the Flemington straight, which isn’t her go. She’ll appreciate returning to a bending track, and has Jamie Kah to ride. This will be her first ride in Melbourne on loan for a month to Mick Price. She is a superstar over in Adelaide and it won’t be long for Melbourne sees it.

$250 Truffle Free Bet

Race Eight: Bmw Handicap (70) 1800m Form Guide

Back Me: Street Savvy (Best Odds: $4.40) for me. Really liked the way he finished off his race first up at Newcastle, then won impressively at Hawkesbury before getting the job done in tougher company than this at Randwick. Comes to Melbourne now for Team Cummings, Olly booked, up in distance, hard to beat.
Big Danger: Signoff (Best Odds: $2.90) is a real up and comer for Darren Weir who is two from two. Really attacked the line on debut at Terang before putting them away in good style at Geelong. Bred to power through the 1800m, barrier one and Rawiller is back on card. The clear main threat.
Roughie: Donarchie (Best Odds: $19.00) has had little luck in four runs this time in. Forget he went around last time out at Kilmore. That track isn’t his go, and neither was the 1450m. Up in distance now, drawn wide, which means he’ll get a clear run, Walker back on board…great blowout chance.

$250 Street Savvy Free Bet

[include file=”inpost_adrotator.php”]

Best Bet: Truffle (Best Odds: $11.00)

Next Best: Prince Stratum (Best Odds: $2.90)

Best Roughie: The Princeling (Best Odds: $13.00)

$50 Investment =52.08% of the dividend if successful.