15/5/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Andrew Ramsden Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington this Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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Tricky race for the juveniles to start the meeting. I’ve sided with 7 River Views (Bet Now: $5.50), who returns to racing as a gelding. Debuted in the Inglis 2YO race on Cox Plate Day when wide no cover and tiring late behind Sneaky Five, who of course franked the form in the Golden Gift. Gelded, Blinkers on and his jumpouts/trial suggest he’s ready to go fresh.

4 Lafargue (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Capitalist colt for Danny O’Brien that is on debut. He’s had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one, the latest coming at Werribee. I thought he moved quite well late under no real riding to win his jumpout in solid time. Draws out, so will get clear air, and is trained here.

5 Mimosas (Bet Now: $11.00) is an interesting runner. On debut for Clayton Douglas off just one trial this prep, which followed two jumpouts in the Spring. The trial at Cranbourne was a nice piece of work, but it was in slow time relative to the morning, so watch the market and see what it does with him.

1 Star Of Eden (Bet Now: $5.00) looks well suited back to this level. Class came to the fore when winning fresh in a Sale maiden. She then went to the Auraria in search of an SA Oaks berth and she didn’t measure up behind Tyche Goddess, but perhaps was ridden too warm. This is a very thin 78 and off the resumption, she’s the one to beat I feel.

8 Surecan (Bet Now: $4.20) is a progressive filly for the Maher/Eustace camp that was a sharp maiden winner two back at Ballarat, justifying the short quote. Then went to Geelong and I thought Johnny Allen gave her every chance. Just not good enough to run down a very impressive Spring Break. Tricky draw, but has talent.

4 Cakewalk Baby (Bet Now: $26.00) can be an improver at odds. Resumed over the mile at Caulfield against her own age/sex when wide no cover on speed and that run just told late as she tired and dropped out behind Brookspire. Does no work from a good draw this time around and her best is good enough

The key to 8 Pinyin (Bet Now: $4.80) is being within range 300m out to use a turn of foot. That’s her ideal set up and with Sartorial Splendor out, I just think this is the perfect race for her kick off. I can’t see them going quick here, so she’ll be 2-3 lengths off them 400m out and when she won several back at Caulfield, she sat back off a slow speed and her turn of foot came to the fore. Hope that will be the case here too.

2 Ididitforlove (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Patrick Payne trained galloper that comes through the Sartorial Splendor race here on Anzac Day. Had a sit behind the speed and tried hard, but the leader/winner was just too good. Blinkers first time interests me, hopefully to get him to show some early speed, in a race that lacks early speed.

7 Free Of Debt (Bet Now: $6.50) is a fascinating runner. He really hasn’t set the world on fire since his 2YO season where he placed in the Blue Diamond and Aquis purchased a majority share. His form went backwards, they are now out of the horse and these days, he’s a benchmark horse. Any hint of his 2YO form and he’d spank these. Jumpout was encouraging…watch the market.

Fitter and up to 2000m are two big ticks for 3 Haky (Bet Now: $14.00). Resumed over 1700m on Anzac Day here where he was back near last in the run in a truly run race. Just couldn’t get involved from where he was but far from disgraced I thought behind Vassilator. Might need one more, but has a touch of class.

I’m giving respect to the Kiwi raider, 4 Hypnos (Bet Now: $3.30). He probably hasn’t gone on with since early on in his career where he looked quite a promising horse. But in saying that, he is racing well at the moment. Just missed out on the win at Riccarton last time out over 2000m, stepping up from 1550m, so he’ll be better for the run and handles all conditions.

5 Declares War (Bet Now: $6.00) looks much better suited in a race like this. I’d forget his Warrnambool Cup run. Just didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight but the track was quite shifty, heavy bias. Just pen the run. Blinkers back on, he likes Flemington and can run a much improved race.

7 Bons Abroad (Bet Now: $4.40) is flying at the moment for Kevin Corstens and should prove hard to beat here. Far from disgraced two back in the Distaff behind Thousand Wishes before going to Sandown where she sat off the speed before presenting wider and gee her change up speed was impressive, putting the race to bed in a couple of strides. Off that, the step up in grade here should be fine and she rates highly.

3 Cordilla (Bet Now: $2.15) is going super this prep for Danny O’Brien. Not sure how she didn’t win at Sandown two weeks ago. She looked to have Altai Ranger cold, but the three year old found plenty under pressure and fended her off. Like her back to 1200m against her own sex and rates highly.

11 Garvoc (Bet Now: $8.00) comes through the Bons Abroad race mentioned above. She attempted to lead throughout and gave a mini kick from the front, but had no answers for the finale produced by the Corstens runner. Likes racing on soft ground and will be out of trouble on speed. Knockout chance.

The old rule of forgive a good horse for one poor run applies with 3 Persan (Bet Now: $4.20). Just too bad to be true here on Anzac Day behind Amade. Market expected him to turn up and win, starting $1.60 after being around $1.80. He has the runs on the board and deserves another chance.

6 Realm Of Flowers (Bet Now: $3.90) is racing well for the Freedman camp. Can make a case to say she should have gone close to winning the Sydney Cup. Just no luck in the straight when wanting to build the revs. Is this an afterthought? Perhaps. But overall, this race is lacking serious depth.

4 Mohican Heights (Bet Now: $10.00) has done little wrong since coming to Melbourne and I think has to be respected here. Put together a couple of strong wins before racing here on Anzac Day. He tried hard from where he was, but just couldn’t peg back impressive winner Amade. 2800m is no issue, in the right camp and has timing.

2 Altai Ranger (Bet Now: $4.60) is racing well for John Sadler. Thought there was a lot of ticker about his win two weeks ago at Sandown. Led throughout and what I liked was how tough he was. He was there to be run down but he found when required and kicked back strongly to win. Back to his own age, he’s likeable.

6 Winsum (Bet Now: $6.50) will be popular with the SP Profile fans given he has a lot of odds on SP’s throughout his career and comes here with two lots of $4 SP’s in similar races to this where he has been pretty good, the latest being three weeks back behind Curran. That form looks strong.

3 Mark Of The Man (Bet Now: $31.00) should be suited up in trip for Aaron Purcell. Made his Australian debut three weeks ago at Caulfield over 1200m. Just run off his legs but didn’t mind his finale behind Curran, who ran well behind Ayrton last Saturday, so the form clearly reads well. Just whether he needs one more.

I reckon Rob Hickmott has 11 Bumper Blast (Bet Now: $5.50) sneaky flying. Didn’t think he was too bad in defeat fresh in the Bel Esprit before going to the Wangoom where he caught the eye late behind Inn Keeper. Should get three wide cover from the wide draw and charge at these late in the piece.

7 Yulong January (Bet Now: $3.30) is getting some positive form back next to his name and we know that once he finds that, he generally holds it. Looked the winner at the top of the straight at Sandown and found, but just couldn’t hold out the final surge from Dice Roll. Hard fit now, back at Flemington, he appeals.

8 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $7.00) can bounce back. Was with him when he contested the VOBIS Mile at Caulfield and on first look, I was disappointed with his effort, but the race shape didn’t suit in the end with Pike pulling their pants down in front on So Si Bon. Better set up here and his best is good enough.

14 Dirty Deeds (Bet Now: $5.00) is racing well and is nearing a win. Ellerton/Zahra trained gelding that was just a bit flat footed when the sprint went on at Sandown two weeks back over 1700m but picked up and surged hard late when second to Spring Choice. Gets back to his home track, knocking on the door…just needs to put a win on the board.

15 Prince Of Helena (Bet Now: $9.00) is a very genuine horse who tries hard and gets serious weight relief from last time out at Bendigo. He lumped 59kg and tried very hard. Just couldn’t quite get there when beaten a lip by Reformist. Good wet track form and drawn wide will be no disadvantage.

13 Pearl Bandit (Bet Now: $14.00) is an interesting runner. Macdonald/Gluyas trained galloper from SA that is three weeks between runs since racing on the Parks track where he was wide no cover throughout so a total forgive run behind Mister Yu Shu. Draws much better this time around and saves his best for the mile.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Star Of Eden

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 3 Persan

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 11 Bumper Blast

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg Three: 1, 7, 8, 11, 12

Leg Four: 13, 14, 15, 17

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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