15/4/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Good Friday races

Good Friday racing heads to Ascot this week for a strong nine race card, headlined by the Marjorie Charleson Classic (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

2 Cafe Nera (Bet Now: $3.40) gets the nod in the opener. Last couple of runs have come over this trip at Pinjarra, the latest being a narrow second to a handy horse in Treat Yo Self in a close finish. CJP gets on really well with this horse, the depth is thin, he’s in form…the one to beat.

1 Sheikh It (Bet Now: $4.50) is unknown at the trip but has upside to come and solid form. Last couple have come over the mile here, the latest being a solid effort behind Brother Paddy, just lacking change up speed, which is why the rise in trip suits and looks the main danger.

7 Unending (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Colin Webster trained mare that comes through the Treat Yo Self race mentioned above where she was a fair way back in the run and despite never being a threat, her finale was more than sound behind the Durrant stayer. Dangerous if the inside gate is used to advantage.

11 Celtic Grey (Bet Now: $5.00) on top but the market will be fascinating. Kieran McDonagh trained filly that is on debut off the back of two trials this time in. Tailed off in the first trial but she jumped clean, sat on speed and she was trucking in winning the trial nicely. If she runs up to that, she’s the one to beat, but as I said, watch the market.

10 Alsephina (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Star Turn filly for Grant Williams that is having start one. Trailled over 1000m at Belmont around a month ago and liked the way she worked to the line under minimal pressure when second. She is in the right camp, has the leading rider and maps solid from the draw.

7 Winning Pia (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Team Casey trained filly that resumes and I think can be dangerous at odds. Hasn’t raced since November 25 when racing over 1000m, doing work in the run and tiring late. Just one soft trial to get ready, but stable can get them ready fresh.

11 Snip Of Glory (Bet Now: $3.80) is knocking on the door to win her maiden and I think she gets a great chance here. Did enough fresh here before going to Pinjarra when wide no cover for the trip yet stayed on quite well in defeat. Should land in a plum spot from the draw and third up, should be hard fit.

3 Serviceman (Bet Now: $4.00) would be top pick had he drawn better. Just no idea where he gets to from a sticky gate. Ran over 1400m at Pinjarra last time out where he just lacked the turn of foot but liked the way he picked up very late when second. Hard to beat with luck from the gate.

2 True Moon (Bet Now: $14.00) back to 1400m I find interesting. He ran over the mile here last start and worked to the line quite well late in the piece when second to Fear The Wind. It was a run that screamed of wanting further, so back in trip I hate, but he should be strong at the end.

6 Pennys Afield (Bet Now: $2.70) is the pony to bet on. She has done little wrong in a six start career for Michael Lane, the latest run being over 1400m at Pinjarra and she was unlucky not to win, getting badly held up at a vital stage and with clear air throughout, I think she wins. Clear air this time around, she’s the one they have to hold out.

3 Albukhturi (Bet Now: $6.00) has an awful winning strike rate but he’s an honest animal that is thereabouts more often than not. Is several weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here when back near last in the run and keen, but liked the way he finished his race off behind Al Magico. Hard to beat if he can hold a forward spot from the gate.

5 Shadow Girl (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Gary Crispin trained mare that resumes. Formerly raced in NSW and the form around her wasn’t too bad, certainly good enough to give this a shake, and despite just one trial, resuming at 1500m tells me there is intent to run well first up.

1 Bambun Boy (Bet Now: $2.90) is a progressive galloper heading in the right direction and should take beating. Stepped up to the mile at Pinjarra last time out where he got the suck run near the speed and once presented by Yuill, he was miles too good. Off that, 1800m here is ideal and finds a very winnable Class 1.

2 Comealilbitcloser (Bet Now: $4.80) has the SP profile to give this a shake. The problem is the strike rate. 1/27 isn’t great, but he was smashed in betting last time out here, racing as a $1.55 favourite and it was ugly viewing if you were on. He should have won but had zero luck. Rub of the green here and he’ll take beating. But, I’d rather watch him win than back him.

6 Man Of The Hour (Bet Now: $15.00) is a knockout chance. On the quick back up after racing last Thursday over 1900m at Narrogin and against the pattern, his finale from the back was quite good when third. I think he lacks the class of some of these, but he’ll be strong at the end.

3 Critical Altitude (Bet Now: $2.80) looks the safe option. Neville Parnham trained mare that comes back to 1000m after racing over 1200m here just under three weeks ago when leading and rolling on speed but just couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Alien From Mars. That form reads so well, she maps super and back to 1000m is ideal.

6 Strakin (Bet Now: $4.20) is the map horse. Todd Harvey trained mare that resumes, having not raced since June 4 at Belmont when wide no cover and tiring late behind Celebrity Witness. Tongue Tie on fresh I find interesting, as well as no public trial, but Chris Parnham booked might be a lead. Watch the market.

5 Somethingready (Bet Now: $8.50) should be around the mark for Ross Price. This mare ran down the straight at Pinjarra last start when near the speed throughout and battled away well when a close up fourth. Interesting to see her back around a bend but overall, this isn’t a strong race, and Rawiller sticks.

I’m with 5 Dream Devil (Bet Now: $4.20). She ran over She ran over this track/distance last time out when back off the speed and despite never really being a winning threat, I liked the way he finished his race off behind Featherweight. If she can settle a pair or two closer in the run, she’ll be dangerous.

1 Bourbon Beau (Bet Now: $3.70) is a son of Brazen Beau for Anne King that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since December 29 when racing over 1400m at Pinjarra when a close up third to Kick A Goal Son. He usually needs a run or two to find his best, but a recent trial was a good piece of work.

2 Diamond Blue (Bet Now: $6.50) is a handy three year old that can bounce back. Last couple of runs have come over 1100m here, winning impressively two back before a down the track effort behind a potential Stakes class horse, Metallon. Gets in well after the claim, should land on speed and his best is good enough.

8 Buzzoom (Bet Now: $2.45) on top in what looks a two horse between a couple of quality fillies. She resumed at this track/distance just under three weeks ago where she paraded like she might need the run, but in the end, class got her home and she was much too good. Better for that under the belt, good map, class, down in the weights…all points to her.

7 Searchin’ Rocs (Bet Now: $3.90) has class in her own right and it will take her a long way despite being first up and better suited over slightly further. Hasn’t raced since The Masters late last year when midfield in the Kingston Town, which ended what was a fab prep. Thought she moved well in a recent Lark Hill. Bit surprised she is favourite, but, she has the runs on the board.

6 Miss Frost (Bet Now: $61.00) is a proper enigma. Two back she produced her best and was a dominant winner, albeit at $15, but had specking. Then last start she failed to fire a shot behind State Attorney, but was found to be lame post race, so there was an excuse. I think she goes in wider multiples.

1 Phoneme (Bet Now: $3.60) deserves another chance. He’s usually a very reliable horse but he was awful last time out at this track/distance Brooklyn Pier. There had to be an excuse and indeed there was, with the horse pulling up lame. Off his prior efforts, he’s right in the mix here.

3 Elafella (Bet Now: $5.00) looks suited back to midweek grade. Resumed in a solid 1MW race just under two weeks ago here and he tried hard after getting a suck run. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Time Scale, a quality mare when right, so the form reads well. Just needs luck from the gate.

2 Costa Del Santo (Bet Now: $7.00) can be an improver at odds. Resumed over 1000m here two weeks back where it was more or less a barrier trial for him and ran accordingly, but was solid late. Jumps straight to 1400m, so I do think an improved showing is on the cards.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 6 Pennys Afield

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Buzzom

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 11 Celtic Grey

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Three: 7, 8

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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