The Summer Carnival in Perth is done and dusted but the blacktype racing continues this Saturday at Ascot with the Miss Andretti Stakes (1100m) highlighting the eight event program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (16:07) : Amelia Park Handicap (72+) 2150m:
Back Me: 4 Preselection…(Bet Now: $2.80) oh dear, last start. What a nightmare it was. Quite frankly, she should have bolted in but she got hopelessly bailed away when having plenty to offer and only got clear when it was all over. Not quite as much depth here I suspect, and with normal luck, I think she will be just good for this lot. Best bet on the program
Big Danger: 3 Antique Dream (Bet Now: $4.00) steps up in trip and looks the knockout runner. She ran in the La Trice Classic (1800m) where she had the charmed run behind the speed but despite that she couldn’t finish off and had to settle for fifth to the star mare that is Cosmic Storm. Has a touch of class on her side and gets Pike steering.
Long Shot: 1 Kirov Boy (Bet Now: $11.00) is a hard horse to catch but on his day he can certainly win this and better races. He last ran in the ATA Stakes (2100m) when strolling to the front and fading after working behind Star Exhibit, who of course came out to win the Perth Cup. Should lead these for fun, and given the compressed weights, he’ll be a tough nut to crack.
Race Two (16:47) : Chinese New Years Raceday Feb 4 Maiden Plate 1400m:
Back Me: 11 Stratosphilly (Bet Now: $4.40) for me and with some confidence. She really caught the eye fresh at Bunbury, making up a heap of ground late, before going to Pinjarra where she missed the start hopelessly then was pushed to sit four wide no cover. Pike on and with a clean getaway plus luck from the gate, she should go very close.
Big Danger: 12 Magic Mint (Bet Now: $9.00) also comes through that Pinjarra race where she was wide no cover and though off the bit before the turn she really surged to the line and was strong late. Draws better here, so if she can more good luck than bad luck, she’s right in the game.
Long Shot: 1 Watijadoo (Bet Now: $34.00) probably has the best credentials to win the race but it’s a real unknown as to how well he is going after two below par efforts to kick off the prep. Convinced he is much better than that given he ran well in town last prep. Knockout chance at odds with luck in running.
Race Three (17:28) : Morley Growers Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Carocapo (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a rising star for Jim Taylor. He has won two from two to kick off his career, the latest coming over 1200m here where he had confident market support and it was justified with a dominant all the way victory. Back 100m in trip is no issue and I think he is one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: 1 Dainty Tess (Bet Now: $4.80) is an absolute beauty for Dan Morton. This filly just doesn’t know how to run a bad race and that was the case once again last Saturday down the straight at Pinjarra where she sat on speed and fought on strongly to run a close third. The negative with her is that she is a costly conveyance for punters, so I love the fact that Pike is back steering.
Long Shot: 9 Miss Lawrance (Bet Now: $9.50) ran third to Carocapo in that race mentioned above and I thought his effort was tidy in defeat though she was simply no match for the eventual winner. Not sure she will turn the tables but she should run well nonetheless.
Race Four (18:08) : Darryl O’Malley 60th Birthday Handicap (72+) 1600m:
Back Me: 9 Sasso’s Circus (Bet Now: $3.20) for me in what should be a Durrant/Miller quinella. This gelding ran over the mile at Pinjarra last Saturday where he had a charmed run behind the tempo and when Pike eased him out, it looked game over but he couldn’t withstand the burst of Juicing Carrots. Seven day turnaround is no issue and Pike remains on.
Big Danger: 8 Pinzu (Bet Now: $2.80) is also on the back up from racing at Pinjarra last weekend and it was a rare case of Pike riding a howler, taking wrong option after wrong option when the horse clearly had something to offer. Much better than that and he gets in well at the weights after the claim.
Long Shot: 1 Son Of Something (Bet Now: $41.00) is a handy stayer that is slowly getting back into fitness. Run off his legs first up over 1200m before last start where he got back in a very slowly run affair and couldn’t come on behind in form galloper Pounamu. Getting out to a more ideal trip now, he has the two runs under the belt and he has class.
Race Five (18:43) : Australia Day BBQ Jan 28 Handicap (1MW) 1000m:
Back Me: 3 Tommy Who (Bet Now: $3.40) ran over 1200m here four weeks back where he was ridden to perfection on speed by Pike, who controlled things from the front and gave nothing a look in to win quite comfortably. Form out of that has held up with the runner up racing well again and the third placegetter winning next start. Draws tricky, but I’ll leave that in the capable hands of Pike.
Big Danger: 2 Three Votes (Bet Now: $2.80) was jept quite safe in the market when resuming over 1100m here a fortnight back where he had a charmed run near the speed and fought on strongly in defeat when running third to Cuanzo. Unbeaten second up and only needs to overcome the gate to be a threat.
Long Shot: 7 Universal Moon (Bet Now: $11.00) ran over this track/distance on December 21 where she showed really good natural toe throughout and looked to travel well in the run but just couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second. More depth here, but if she can slot in and get cover, she’ll be a threat for sure.
Race Six (19:20) : Summer Loving $5 Earlybird Tickets Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Key To Fame (Bet Now: $3.00) steps up to 1400m after racing over 1200m last Saturday at Pinjarra where he sat on speed most of the way and gave a really good kick when asked for the effort by Mitchell but he couldn’t quite finish off and had to settle for a close up third to Main Instigator. Suited up to 1400m and maps well.
Big Danger: 10 Someday One Day (Bet Now: $8.00) has been given a 70 day spell since failing over 1800m here during the early part of the Summer Carnival. Looked really sharp in a recent trial win at Bunbury when seemingly doing his business comfortably and I like the fact that Pike remains on. If there is a market push, he will go close to knocking them off.
Long Shot: 9 Paris Dream (Bet Now: $19.00) has been given a 24 day freshen up since racing over the mile here at the midweeks where he tried hard but was just no match late for Scarlet Speedster, running a one length third. Back to 1400m should suit this Jim Taylor galloper and stable is absolutely flying.
Race Seven (19:55) : Miss Andretti Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: Key runners come through the Summer Scorcher and I’m leaning the way of 11 Volkhoff (Bet Now: $4.00). She produced sharp splits to win here two back before going to the race mentioned above where she got a long way back in the run and finished hard late to run fifth to Potent Secret, beaten just over a length. Should be a genuine tempo once again here and if she can sit a touch closer in the run I think her turn of foot will be too good.
Big Danger: 1 Durendal (Bet Now: $4.80) was having his first run for the Gangemi yard in the Summer Scorcher where he just sat off the speed in the run and came with a well timed run but just couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for second to Potent Secret. He should have upside left and rates highly.
Long Shot: 6 Dawn Approach (Bet Now: $11.00) looked to trial well prior to resuming in the Summer Scorcher where he just looked to do a bit too much work and faded late. He is a class animal who has been strong previously in high quality events. Just needs better luck.
Race Eight (20:30) : James Boag’s Premium Handicap (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Dezzies Dream (Bet Now: $3.30) had confident market support when resuming over this track/distance on Perth Cup Day and it was left to Pike to produce an absolute peach on the mare, sitting 1/1 before peeling at the top of the straight and she showed a lovely turn of foot to get the job done. Group l placed last year in NZ, so she has the class, and I think she can go right on with it.
Big Danger: 13 Red Paddy (Bet Now: $4.40) was good against the tempo here two back behind Tommy Who before backing up seven days later and scoring a super win in a race where the form has well and truly stood up. Just needs to overcome the tricky gate to be a key threat here and is, on form, one of the hardest to beat.
Long Shot: 1 Dueton (Bet Now: $31.00) resumed in the Summer Scorcher and though he didn’t exactly ping when asked, he stuck on alright and wasn’t beaten far in a sprint race that did have a bit of depth and quality to it, so the drop back to this level looks ideal, suited up in trip and just needs luck from the wide barrier to ambush.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Dezzies Dream
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Carocapo
VALUE: Race Seven Number 11 Vollkoff
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 11
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 13
$50 Investment= 6.94% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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