14/10/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Caulfield Guineas day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Caulfield on Saturday where it is Caulfield Guineas Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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10 Thought Provoking (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Price/Kent. Market said she’d need the run when resuming in the Stocks. Market knew as she got back to last in the run and was never a factor when finishing down the track behind Amelia’s Jewel. Much better second up record and can race on speed when at her best, so with a more positive ride, she’s an improver for sure, especially back to this level.

4 Kettle Hill (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1700m for Maher/Eustace. He was kept quite safe in betting when resuming over 1300m at Sandown where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a threat, he did make up headway and was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Starlight Scope. Good room for improvement and has always shown talent since arriving from overseas.

7 Grand Pierro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He resumed at Mornington over 1500m where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out but I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Rhinoceros. Reckon 2000m on a bigger track would be more ideal but 1700m here is acceptable. First four contender.

Very rarely does a Queensland horse not measure up in Melbourne so with that in mind, I am giving respect to 2 Appin Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She did a super job in her first prep, which ended with a third in the Champagne at Doomben after being tardy away behind subsequent BRC Sires winner Cifrado. Loved the way she has gone in recent trial and jumpout work. Keen to see how she goes.

1 Shesallshenanigns (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rates highly. She comes through the Scarborough at The Valley where she was far from disgraced in defeat in a truly run race when fifth to Coeur Volante. Think with a more economical run on speed, with the class factor, I am sure she will be around the mark.

5 Lady In Pink (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1200m for Team Corstens. This filly resumed just under two weeks back at Sandown over 1000m where she was run off her legs and given the winner ran around 32 for the last 600m, nothing behind was threatening, including this girl, but she did make up headway. Like her up in trip and has a stack of upside compared to most.

8 Carini (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was scratched from the Bart Cummings last Saturday to be saved for this. Interesting set up but he looks a talented horse. He was a dominant winner at Flemington last time, finishing best late in an impressive display. He’s heading in the right direction and with good upside to come, he rates highly as one of the leading contenders.

1 Daqiansweet Junior (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was a total forgive when racing around this time last year and I reckon 12 months on, he is ticking along nicely. He ran a few weeks back in the Naturalism where he got back near last in the run and while he was never a threat, he worked to the line pretty well I thought behind Uncle Bryn, beaten 3.5L. He’ll love the rise to 2400m and being fourth up, he should just about be at peak fitness.

2 Regal Power (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found positive form. He ran in the Ansett Classic two weeks back at Mornington where he looked the winner in the run but just lacked the change up speed to put them away and was nabbed on the peg by Born A King. Not sure I could back him to win, but for exotics, he can be entertained.

7 She Dances (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1200m for Moody/Coleman. She resumed three weeks ago over 1100m here where the race shape wasn’t to her liking but she stayed on and was more than sound in defeat behind Viviane. Much better set up this time around, can settle on speed and prove hard to get past.

5 Grey River (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands some level of respect for Jon O’Connor. She has been kept on ice, having not raced since Sep 16 when giving her rivals a spanking in the Whylie at Morphettville in such an electric return. Form out of that race has been strong, loved a recent jumpout at Morphettville and she has shown previously that she can measure up in Melbourne.

8 Rose Quartz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) appeals. She resumed several weeks ago over 1100m at Caulfield where she was given a peach steer by Dee and was there to win but first up, she couldn’t quite get there when second to a very much in form mare, Viviane. Might have eyes on Flemington but off the return, she should prove hard to beat.

7 Asfoora (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a bit on this lot IMO. Henry Dwyer trained mare that resumed with a bang here before going to the Moir where she ran out of her skin but had no answers for the finale of a star mare, Imperatriz. Back to where she races best, lands on speed, suited at WFA…could be a case of good luck beating her.

2 Uncommon James (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rates highly against these. O’Dea/Hoysted trained gelding that resumed in the Moir and kept finding the line in a good return but was never really a threat behind Imperatriz, finishing third. Reckon he’s much better suited on the bigger track, has the run under the belt…only threat to Asfoora.

3 Curran (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one that can pinch a first four spot. He resumes, having not raced since June 10 at Sandown when a solid third to Starry Legend, chasing from the outset but he kept finding the line. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh, he likes Caulfield and he looked to close off nicely in a recent Sandown jumpout. Not a winning prospect. More of a first four contender.

Throw at the stumps in the shape of 7 Stageman (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday at Flemington over 1400m where he got back off the speed in a slowly run race and was never a factor but stuck on and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Tamerlane. Buffalo River will ensure this is a fast run 1400m so the back up horse, you’d like to think, is suited.

Best version of 1 Ayrton (Bet Now:  $SP.00) would spank this field. Just not sure where he is at but on class alone, he has to be respected. He has been poor for 12-18 months but this field looks very much on the weak side and he seemed to move well enough in a recent jumpout win. I think watch the market and see what it does.

10 Vreneli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can give cheek from the front. GaiBott trained gelding that was ridden with a sit in the Sandown Stakes last time and he tried hard but just lacked the killer blow to be in the finish behind Antino, beaten four lengths. He does race best when racing on speed so if that can eventuate here, he’ll run a much improved race.

I think 9 Duais (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is clearly the one to beat. She’s back big time. Underwood run was outstanding, closing off with real purpose late behind Alligator Blood. B Shinn is a big upgrade from C Williams in the sense he can get horses that are slow starters to jump out fast, a good example being Party For One. If he can get this mare out and she can settle in the first half of the field, I think she’ll be within range to wear down the Blood.

1 Alligator Blood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for GaiBott and will give himself every chance. He had every right to tire late in the Underwood three weeks ago but he just kept finding under Oliver to fend them off and record back to back wins in the race. I do think 2000m is still a query with him but if he gets a cheap time of it on speed and it turns into a sprint, he’ll be hard to get past.

3 Nonconformist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is ticking along nicely IMO. Just left flat footed in the Underwood three weeks back and was entitled to drop away but he ran through the pain barrier and kept finding in an okay effort behind Alligator Blood. Up to 2000m I do like…not sure he has the quality to win but can pinch a first four spot.

10 Wishlor Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very progressive mare for Symon Wilde. Can make a case to say she should have won fresh at Sandown but had little luck behind Starlight Scope. She then went to Sandown again where Kah rode her like a good thing and she duly saluted, giving them a spanking. Clearly a harder assignment here, but 1800m should be fine, she’s off a win and has change up speed.

4 Barbie’s Fox (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done a ripping job since joining Team Hayes and rates as one of the hardest to beat. She comes through The Epsom when thrown in the deep end but I thought she ran out of her skin in defeat when fourth to Rediener after getting back off the speed in a slowly run race. Back to Mares grade, gee she appeals.

13 Tajneed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Team Snowden. This mare has been pretty good in three runs back from a spell. Latest was several weeks back over 1400m at Caulfield where she didn’t really get the rub of the green in the straight yet was only beaten a length by Beour Boy. Convinced she is racing well and with better luck in the run, she’s good enough to fill a place.

It’s hard to get away from 1 Militarize (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Was he a lucky winner of the Golden Rose? You can make a case to say yes, but you can also make a case to say he should have won by further given he was badly held up. The facts are that he is a three time Group l winner and of the five Group l races for this generation, he has won three. He’s a star and is seemingly racing like he will eat up the mile.

4 Steparty… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beware the unbeaten horse. 5/5 to start his career for Paul Preusker, his win in the Prelude three weeks ago being enormous given he gave them a start and a beating in such an impressive display. Every indication is that he will love 1600m and has versatility re racing pattern. Appeals big time as one of the key chances.

If there is a knockout, then 5 Veight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the horse. I was keen on him in the Prelude but he seemed to get on the wrong leg in the straight and threw the race away behind Steparty. He had a $3.60 SP in the Prelude so if you are an SP profile fan, he is the horse. Lane jumps back on and the tick over jumpout win was quite good.

3 Amelia’s Jewel… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) it has the I Wish I Win feels of last year, where it was too good to be true. But, she just looks so well in at the weights and has plenty of room for improvement. Arrogant win first up in the Let’s Elope then was ridden like the best horse in the race in the Stocks and duly saluted, winning comfortably in track record time. Weighted as if she’s a moral…I think all things equal, she is.

6 Antino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be rated as one of the key chances. Queensland raider for Tony Gollan that should have won first up at Flemington but had zero luck in the straight. Shinn took bad luck of the equation at Sandown and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and he was much too good. Hard fit now and getting to the mile, he has a good racing style to give the star mare a fright.

16 Charterhouse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very good horse for Maher/Eustace and confident he measures up. Market said he’d need the run when resuming in the Bobbie Lewis four weeks ago, and despite 1200m being short of his best, he was a real eye catcher late behind Star Patrol. The break between runs is a slight query but I am convinced he has the talent and the upside to run well.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 Asfoora

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 8 Carini

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 7 Stageman

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 9

Leg Two: 1, 4, 10, 13

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Four: 3, 6, 9, 15, 16

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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