The two day Canberra Carnival kicks off this Sunday where it is Black Opal Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Black Opal Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Black Opal Stakes
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Race 1. (12:25) Pfd Food Services Hcp (c1) 1000m
5 Glamour Runs Deep (Bet Now: $2.25) on top. This girl debuted at this meeting last year where she was smashed in betting on debut in the maiden but didn’t fire on a shifty track. Only had the one run last prep, which saw her run second at Goulburn. No public trials, but on the home track on the big day, T Berry on, suspect she’ll be ready to go.
7 Flying Annie (Bet Now: $3.90) has been kept on ice for the Maher/Eustace camp since a strong maiden win over 1000m at Scone where sustained speed came to the fore from the front. Has been accepted/scratched a few times since so I think fitness is no issue and is drawn well.
4 Devine Miss (Bet Now: $6.50) is a daughter of Headwater for Norm Gardner that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since November 22 on the Riverside track at Wagga where she ran a closing second. Interesting she resumes without a trial but trained here, she’ll run well I assume.
Race 2. (13:05) Seppelt Plate (c1) 2000m
6 Let’s Karaka Deel (Bet Now: $1.25) is first up at 2000m…what is doing? Oh that’s right, Maher/Eustace train so he’ll be fine and likely will be winning. This guy hasn’t raced since the Queensland Derby where he was outclassed but far from disgraced in defeat behind Kukeracha. Three trials to get ready for his return and really, this is a thin Class 1 and he has class.
5 Handsome King (Bet Now: $16.00) should be suited here. He was good from off the speed two back at Goulburn over the mile before stepping up to 1900m at Canterbury where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Mr Gee. Form around him reads okay and outside the top tip, it’s a race lacking depth, and he’s the most likely.
12 Sky Ace (Bet Now: $18.00) is racing like he will eat up 2000m for Brad Widdup. His last couple of runs have come over the mile, where he was a touch flat at Nowra before going to Gosford and I thought he was warming to the task late in the piece. Nose Roll first time and on breeding, eats up 2000m.
Race 3. (13:46) Elvin Group (bm65) 1400m
4 Gusonic (Bet Now: $3.50) the one for me in what looks an even contest. First run for Donna Scott came in the CC Qualifier at Wagga when leading and showing a really good kick in the straight, just failing to finish it off when third to Another One. Gets the best front running rider in the business in T Clark to steer, drops miles in grade/depth…he’ll take beating.
14 Sir Finn (Bet Now: $11.00) has home track advantage and is a horse in super form. Last couple of runs have come over this trip, both times seeing him win. Two back he won at the Sapphire Coast before producing an electric finale to get the job done at Queanbeyan. Maps beautifully from the draw and is hard to beat.
12 Stand Your Ground (Bet Now: $9.50) has a big finale on her when she’s right. Resumed over 1200m at Wagga where she got back to near last in the run and worked to the line very strongly late behind Landmine, finishing second. 1400m is a query, but if she gets a drag into the race, but she’ll launch late.
Race 4. (14:21) Landhq (bm75) 1200m
9 Cavalier Charles (Bet Now: $4.00) on top. Matty Dale trained gelding gave them a spanking fresh at the Sapphire Coast before going to a Country Championships Qualifier behind Testator Silens at Nowra and was far from disgraced. Back to 1200m I do like. Just interesting what does Nick Heywood do from the wide gate.
6 Eye See Things (Bet Now: $8.50) doesn’t win out of turn but maps super from the low gate. Close up third two back at Warwick Farm behind Stormborn. Then went to Canterbury when on speed on the testing ground and failed to pick her feet up late. Firmer footing here, she can bounce back.
3 Park Avenue (Bet Now: $3.90) should appreciate the firmer deck. Close up fresh behind Miss Jay Fox before going to Canterbury again. They rode him warm and I thought it backfired behind Shades Of Rose. He’s a dry track horse, so he should get conditions to suit here. Can easily bounce back.
Race 5. (15:01) Tab Federal R Thomson Mem. Mdn 1200m
3 Jiggler (Bet Now: $2.90) could be absolutely steamed here in the market. Son of Adelaide on debut for Kurt Goldman. Just one trial to get ready, which came at Goulburn, and gee I thought he moved quite well, especially the last 50m or so. Stable gets Tommy Berry, draws well, no depth here…he could blow them away.
1 How Do You Sleep (Bet Now: $6.50) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Joe Pride, he is now with Garry Kirkup. Hasn’t raced since October 6 when far from disgraced in a maiden at Rosehill over 1500m. He resumes here without a trial, but suspect he’ll be ready to go.
13 All Astern (Bet Now: $6.50) is the saver bet to cover Jiggler. It’s starting to get that time of the year where the 2YO’s take on the older horses and it’s very profitable. This filly contested the Black Opal Preview and was far from disgraced in defeat. Pike on, Blinkers on first time, I think she runs well.
Race 6. (15:41) Affinity Constr. Aust. Sprint 1000m
Looks to be a stack of speed here, and I think it sets up perfectly for 2 Lancaster Bomber (Bet Now: $9.50). He’s not the most trustworthy horse going around but the set up here looks ideal. Ran down the straight at Flemington last time out and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Rose Quartz. He’ll get speed on, he’ll be strong late and is at decent odds.
3 On The Lead (Bet Now: $5.00) is hard to beat here for Team Freedman. He resumes, having not raced since December 18 at Randwick when looking a tired horse when down the track behind Tycoonist. His trials leading in have been strong and he does seem most effective at 1000m.
7 Key Largo (Bet Now: $5.00) is several weeks between runs since racing at Rosehill where he worked home with real purpose from near last in the run when a narrow second to Ranges, who ran another ripping race next time out, so the form reads well and the bigger track should be ideal.
Race 7. (16:21) National Sprint 1400m
7 From The Bush (Bet Now: $10.00) is worth an each way ticket for me. Resumed in a solid 72 on the Kenso track and ran a super race, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Cape Breton, who is a quality three year old. Maps beautifully from the draw, upside and will be strong late.
2 Aim (Bet Now: $3.60) is a very hard horse to catch but he’s a 1400m dry track horse so I think he’s suited here. Ran in the Magic Millions Cup at the Gold Coast in January and worked to the line fair without really threatening. Tick over trial at Randwick was a good piece of work and if he gets conditions to suit, I think he’ll be dangerous.
4 Irish Songs (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing in pretty solid form for Kurt Goldman. Ran at Flemington a few weeks ago and his run from behind the very slow speed was quite commendable behind the very much in form Rose Quartz. If the tempo is more genuine, he’ll be much more effective late.
Race 8. (17:01) Black Opal Stakes 1200m
4 Metallicity (Bet Now: $2.90) has a tricky draw to overcome but I think he has the talent to take it out. Debuted in the Pierro Plate when wide no cover on speed and just tired late but was far from disgraced in defeat. If he does get luck from the draw, I think he’ll take beating here.
9 Warby (Bet Now: $10.00) is a huge watch here. Maher/Eustace colt that is on debut and there has been enough early support to suggest this guy has talent. Two Sydney trials have been okay without being great, but Blinkers on for start one tell me he’s here to win.
16 Custodian (Bet Now: $8.00) looks a smart colt for Team Freedman that is on debut and given, overall, the depth in the 2YO ranks is thin, the Slipper winner might not have raced yet? Could he put his hand up? Maybe. It was a strong win in a trial so I am keen to see how he goes.
Race 9. (17:40) Mane Lodge Hcp (c2) 1600m
4 Manderboss (Bet Now: $5.00) looks hard to beat in the get out. Ran over this trip at Goulburn last time out where he got a mile out of his ground but liked the way he finished his race off when a close up fourth. I’d love to see him sit closer in the run and if that eventuates, he’ll be strong at the end.
2 Hardy (Bet Now: $3.70) is a handy animal for Luke Pepper that is racing in good form without winning. Ran in a strong Class 2 at Nowra last time out where he did a bit of work to sit on speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Danzadel. Think that form reads okay for this.
12 Loose Love (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Todd Smart trained three year old that should around the mark. On the quick back up after racing earlier this week at Cowra where he was wide and doing work before getting in but that early burn just told late when third. With a more economical run, he can take this out.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Jiggler
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Let’s Karaka Deel
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 2 Lancaster Bomber
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg Three: 4, 9, 10, 16
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 12
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
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