13/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Black Caviar Lightning Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, with the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) assembling a high class bunch of sprinters. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes

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I think 4 Selica (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) finds a very winnable race here for the Annabel Neasham yard. Has had three runs for the stable and each time she has been more than sound in what have been far stronger races than what she faces. Form is easy to tie because as a three year old, she was beaten a lip by Silent Sovereign in Adelaide and here, meets that mare better off at the weights.

8 Quantum Mechanic (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is getting towards D-Day. Like most, was keen on her three weeks ago at Sandown and I thought Jamie Kah gave her a peach ride. 400m out, looked her race to lose, but she didn’t finish it off and whacked away to run third. Prior efforts indicated a win was near so giving her one more chance.

2 Realm Of Flowers (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is a quality mare for the Freedman camp that resumes. This mare hasn’t raced since the Spring last year when placing in the Sandown Cup behind Carif in what was a fast run two miles. Whatever she does here, she will improve on, but does have class on her side.

1 Ingratiating (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) has the A1 form to take this out. Resumed in the Chairmans at Caulfield and chased strongly throughout when second to a potential star in Enthaar. Proven straight track performer and does boast a win over General Beau, so the form around him just reads so well for this.

9 Frost Flowers (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a talented filly for the Freedman camp that has been strong in both career outings. Gave them a belting here on debut before going to the Blue Diamond Preview when a game second to all the way winner Dosh. Back to the straight course, she can easily bounce back.

2 Gulf Of Suez (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a key threat here. Maher/Eustace trained colt that won his first two career outings in impressive fashion at Morphettville before being freshened up. Went to the Blue Diamond Preview where he was wide throughout but was more than sound in defeat behind General Beau. Think he’s hard to beat against these.

Hard to get away from 9 Regardsmaree (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS). Nick Ryan has his stable humming along beautifully at the moment and this guy is just about the flagbearer, with his past two starts resulting in dominant wins over 1400m at Caulfield, the latest coming last Saturday. Just has to hold his form to take this out.

The best version of 2 Buffalo River (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) will see him win this, but just not sure where he is at. Mixed Spring prep, which ended with a torrid run in the Cantala, sitting on a brutal speed. Two jumpout wins have him ready to go fresh and do like the booking of Jamie Kah, one of the best in the business at getting the best out of these quirky animals.

7 Morvada (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. I was keen on him first up in the John Dillon at Caulfield and punters agreed, backing him into $3.70. Landed in front, set a genuine tempo and tried hard to fend them off, but condition gave out late when fourth to Blazejowski. Likes Flemington, fitter and should take some running down.

8 Coolth (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS) looks like he will eat up this type of race. Was touted as a potential Adelaide Cup contender, but the stable are keeping him on ice in terms of tackling that class of race. Loved the way he attacked the line to win at Flemington a few weeks ago, sitting back before angling into clear air and launching late to nab the leader Sikorsky. He’ll eat up a strong 2000m here I suspect and is hard to beat.

Aaron Purcell has done a fab job with 4 Takumi (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). Loved the way he put them away to win at Caulfield on Australia Day, knuckling down strongly under Johnny Allen to win and win well. This looks a harder assignment but have to like the way he is going about it this time in. Leading chance.

9 Diplomac Jack (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) will put himself on speed and get every chance. That was the case in the Great Western Cup last time out but was nabbed near the peg by Patch Adams in a driving go. Gets right down in the weights after the claim. Lacks the class, but will give a sight and can sneak a first four spot.

Not sure I could back 4 Zou Dancer (Bet Now: $3.00) to win under $4, but it is hard to get away from her. Two months between runs since a dominant win at this track/distance against off season class fillies, but ran very sharp time in winning and the form out of it has been good. Tick over Geelong trial was a good piece of work, draws well and gets Jamie Kah.

Great to see 1 Personal (Bet Now: $4.40) back at the races. The Oaks winner returns and yes, she will be better suited over slightly further, but she has class on her side and we do see often that the class runners do come to the fore in this race. Trialled up well enough and should be charging late.

5 Salto Angel (Bet Now: $8.00) is a quality daughter of Sacred Falls for Danny O’Brien that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Oaks where she got back and worked home strongly to run a game second to Personal. She has quality on her side and thought her Geelong trial was more than encouraging.

No idea what to do with 2 Dadoozdart (Bet Now: $9.00). He has mixed his form since arriving in Australia but no doubt his best would see him beat this lot. Resumed in the John Dillon in what was a truly run 1400m contest and he was never really a winning threat, but liked the way he closed off. Fitter, bigger track and has a touch of class.

3 Holbein (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Steve Richards trained gelding that is nearing a win I feel. He ran at Sandown a few weeks ago when chasing a very strong speed set by Fundraiser. Campbell Rawiller elected to stay nearer the inside and in the end, that cost him the win IMO, beaten a lip by Grinzinger Allee. Hard to beat against these.

9 High’N’Dry (Bet Now: $9.50) deserves another chance. To the eye, he was a touch disappointing last time out at Caulfield behind Aussie Nugget. Just feel he got a bit too far back, due to a strong tempo, and he couldn’t get going early. Warmed up late but it was race over. Prior form was more than sound.

I’m very wary of 8 Embolism (Bet Now: $23.00), resuming for Danny O’Brien. He dodged the better three year olds for the most part in the Spring but did contest the Carbine Club and I think with clear air, he was going to be right in the finish. Instead, he nearly fell. He’s trialled up well and could be a three year old to make the leap from Spring to Autumn.

6 Brando (Bet Now: $6.00) is a boom colt from NZ for Jamie Richards that makes his much anticipated Australian debut. Comes over with a decent reputation, winning three of five, his latest effort being a close up second in the Group l Levin Classic behind another classy animal in Bonham. That’s strong 3YO form over there and think he’s the one to beat with fresh legs at 1400m.

2 Cherry Tortoni (Bet Now: $11.00) has a real love affair with Flemington. He’s a quality animal for Patrick Payne that resumes, having not raced since the Victoria Derby where he was outstanding in defeat after getting a mile back off a very moderate early tempo. Has had two trials to get ready, both 1000m+ trials, so don’t think fitness will be an issue.

The market will be fascinating with 2 Bivouac (Bet Now: $2.50). His straight track form is there for all to see and is regarded as one of the best straight horses in Australia, as seen in the VRC Sprint Classic. Trialled up really well in Sydney to get ready, he’ll sit off a brutal speed…is 1000m too short? Market will tell you if he’s ready or not.

1000m is on the short side for 7 September Run (Bet Now: $7.00), but the set up for her is perfect with a fast speed to chase. She came of age in the Spring, going on to be a Group l winner and probably sits behind Bivouac as the best straight track horse in Australia. Her target is the Newmarket so whatever she does here, she will improve on, but she’ll be charging late.

8 Swat’s That (Bet Now: $15.00) is a sneaky chance. She wasn’t far off September Run in the Spring and if you like her, then you have to give Swat’s That some respect. She jumped out alongside Nature Strip and September Run last week and looked to move pretty well in her own right, so she’s here ready to run a big race I feel.

7 Zakat (Bet Now: $3.50) on top. James Cummings trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since October 31 at Rosehill when a close up third over 1400m behind Elaborate. His two trials in Sydney to get ready have been strong to the eye and his first up efforts prior have been good enough to give this a shake.

2 Laverrod (Bet Now: $5.00) is a fascinating runner. Team Casey trains this galloper in WA and he makes his Victorian debut off the back of a pretty strong Summer Carnival in Perth, contesting some pretty solid races. Resumes without a public trial, but they are a stable that should always be respected.

6 Enigman (Bet Now: $46.00) is racing as if this set up will suit him. Was really keen on his chances a few weeks ago at Murray Bridge over 1200m. When the sprint went on, he was left a bit flat footed, but picked up and was good late. Has won up to 1300m, and has run well at 1400m previously, so a strong 1200m is no issue.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 9 Regardsmaree

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Ingratiating

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 8 Embolism

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9

Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8, 13

Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 8

Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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