13/12/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Pakenham, Pakenham Cup day

A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Pakenham this Saturday. Weather forecast is for showers, track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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9 Tag The Pr (Bet Now:  $SP.00)ide is a Tagaloa filly for John Sadler that debuts. She has had a couple of jumpouts here in readiness for start one and each time she has looked impressive, enough to say she can make a winning debut. Market will be the main guide, but I say she’s above average.

2 Milsons Point (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Blue Point colt for Ciaron Maher. He ran second in a jumpout last week at Cranbourne when off speed and worked home well enough without really being asked for an effort. Keen to see how he goes.

8 Neotropical (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on debut for John McArdle, a stable that is flying at the moment. This girl won a jumpout at Mornington last time, running okay overall time and seemingly moved well enough to my eye. She’ll acquit herself well I think.

3 Tikemyson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a little while for Symon Wilde but is holding his form well. He ran third at Caulfield two weeks ago behind Black Run, trying hard from just off the speed but just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow third. 2500m should be fine, he seems a straight bat option as a threat.

13 Leonchroi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in the mix for Price/Kent. He ran over 2400m at Geelong last start when off speed and worked home quite strongly late in the piece when second to Eagle Angel, beaten a lip in a tight finish. Bursting to win and in light after the claim, he’s in the mix.

2 Lodbrok (Bet Now:  $SP.00) steps up to 2500m after racing two weeks back at Caulfield over 2400m. He got back in the run and did make up headway but was never really threatening behind the in form Black Run. Bigger track and more ground, he can win.

3 Real Alliance (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Luke Oliver and commands respect after winning four on the bounce, the latest coming at Werribee on Sunday when knuckling down with purpose late from just off the speed to score. Good test here but think she can measure up.

2 Astral Flame (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs since running second in the Shooting Stars at Cranbourne when off speed and surged hard late nearer the inside, driving hard but just missing out on picking up Chest Of Gold. Hard to beat here.

7 Tarvue (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs since resuming over 1700m at Caulfield where she got back off speed and failed to come on when down the track behind Skipper’s Canyon. Home track, freshened, back to Mares grade, I think she’s dangerous.

6 Sweethearted (Bet Now:  $SP.00) takes beating against these. Track was too wet on Stakes Day at Flemington but he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Grand Larceny. Looks like he has been targeted for this race day and moved well in a tick over jumpout. He’ll sit off speed and launch late.

7 Biancelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be better for the first up run, which came at Cranbourne three weeks ago when off speed and chased strongly in the straight but just couldn’t quite get there when second to Gin A Tonic. Better for the run, winnable race, she appeals.

2 Harry Got Styles (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat I say after a good effort three weeks ago at Cranbourne. He got off speed and while he was never threatening, he kept chasing and was pretty good in defeat behind impressive winner Gin A Tonic. If he can settle closer, he’ll be hard to hold out.

2 Jenni’s Meadow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Mark Walker. She ran over the mile on Stakes Day at Flemington when back near last in the run and made up some ground without threatening behind Sabaj, winner of the Cranbourne Cup next start, so the form reads well and the rise to 2000m is ideal.

4 Cable Dancer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a few weeks between runs for Charlotte Littlefield since taking out the Ararat Cup, giving them a start and a beating to win and win well. Harder here but with home track advantage, he appeals as a threat against these.

7 Politely Dun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday at Ballarat. He got back to near last in the run but didn’t fire a shot and was never really a factor behind Prince Eric. Firmer deck, soft gate, he can run an improved race.

1 Farhh Flung (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes through the Kilmore Cup when near the moderate speed throughout and tried hard but the tempo was too slow and the sit/sprint set up wasn’t to his liking when third to Regal Zeus. Much better set up here, he only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

3 Altivo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. He was never a factor in the Festival at Rosehill last start, getting back to near last in the run and made up no headway in a plain return. He does have a good mile record and third up, should be hard fit, ready to go.

6 Rhinoceros (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes through the Wodonga Cup where he got into a decent spot off speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite finish his race off behind Morning Darling. Think with a more positive ride, he can run an improved race and is good enough to win.

16 Skipper’s Canyon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is going to take a power of beating here provided he jumps clean. He didn’t jump clean at Caulfield two weeks ago and that sealed his fate, but he rocketed to the line behind Opening Address. If he jumps clean, I think he’s the likely winner.

11 Black Run (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Archibald and has to be respected after making it three on the bounce when a winner at Caulfield last time, helped by a 12/10 ride by Houston, who waited patiently to push the button and that was the difference between winning and losing. Like him a lot as a horse and 2500m is fine. Key chance.

13 Taramansour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was far from disgraced two weeks back at Caulfield behind Black Run. He got off speed and tried to get involved but was never really a factor. He does seem a big track horse so is suited at Pakenham and I think can run a cheeky race at a price.

1 Here To Shock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was an impressive winner of the Testa Rossa two weeks ago, getting complete front end control and he gave nothing else a look in to win impressively. 1400m specialist with a good racing style and will take running down.

3 Private Eye (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a star for Joe Pride and has to be rated as just about top seed. He last raced in the Russell Balding at Randwick where he didn’t go a yard on the track yet somehow worked home with purpose behind Jimmysstar. Tick over trial says he’s doing just fine and with a class edge, will clearly take beating.

4 Arkansaw Kid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) steps up to 1400m after resuming over 1200m in The Meteorite where he looked the winner in the run but was very weak late, suggesting he may need the run. Fitter, 1400m, a quiet ride, he can threaten.

7 Persian Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should win if there is petrol left in the tank. No speed no talent brought him undone in the Testa Rossa, just getting too far back while Here To Shock had front end control, stole a break and clung on. He’ll get good cover from the gate, a drag into the race and I think finish over the top.

5 Run Harry Run (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat for Team Hayes. He last raced in the Ararat Bowl when getting a sweet sit in transit near the speed before being asked for the big effort by Currie and he found when required to score. Tick over jumpout was encouraging, good racing style and 1400m suits.

9 Magnaspin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key chance. He resumed two weeks back in the Testa Rossa where the race shape wasn’t really to his liking but he stayed on and was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Here To Shock. Better for the run, good racing style, he can win.

This looks a complete set up for 14 Saught After (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Even the name of the race aside, this horse has been given three runs…I say runs, may as well be barrier trials, in readiness for this day to my eye. Latest run, he was thrown in the deep end in The Meteorite and yes, was never a winning threat, but I thought he ran very well. Back to 84 grade, home track, drawn to get good cover and launch late. Very keen.

6 Naval Academy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is holding his form really well at the moment and has a good racing style. He attempted to lead throughout three weeks ago at Cranbourne. He gave a strong kick from the front but just couldn’t quite see it through, nabbed late by Hearcomesthestar. Likely lands in front and takes running down.

2 The Open (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Payne trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since July 12 when down the track at Caulfield behind Zou Sensation. Fresh at 1200m I don’t mind and although he’ll spot them a start he should be strong at the end.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 7 Persian Spirit

NEXT BEST: Race Ten Number 14 Saught After

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 2 Jenni’s Meadow

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 16

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 9

Leg Three: 7

Leg Four: 14

$50 Investment = 1250% of the dividend if successful.

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