The Brisbane Summer Carnvial warms up this Saturday at Doomben where it is Keith Noud Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Keith Noud Quality 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Keith Noud Quality
Race 1. (13:03) Sky Racing Hcp 1110m
I’m with 1 Heroic Son (Bet Now: $2.90). Debuted several weeks ago over 1050m here when on speed and looked to be trucking. Quickened up, showed good change up speed and was impressive, strong to the line in winning. Drops 1kg in weight from that win, and overall, this isn’t a strong race.
8 Saweetie (Bet Now: $2.80) looks the pick of the first starters. Tony Gollan filly that trialled at Eagle Farm a couple of weeks ago and was sharp in winning. Time was nothing flash, but she was taken wide on the turn by a wayward horse. Balanced up and moved quite well in winning. She runs well.
5 Mishani Mental (Bet Now: $8.50) is on the seven day back up for Les Ross. I liked him last Saturday at Eagle Farm, but he didn’t exactly set the world on fire and was just fair late when fourth. A rise in trip and a more gentle tempo could help his cause, and he was backed with confidence last Saturday and you have to respect that push.
Race 2. (13:38) Brc Membership (bm80) 2000m
Buttering up with 5 Southern Rock (Bet Now: $4.20). Last couple of runs have come at Eagle Farm, the latest being two weeks ago where he had to duck and weave in the straight and that just cost him that crucial bit of momentum, which I think cost him the win when a narrow second to Ambitious Prince. Clear air, clear path, he can win.
6 Flensburg (Bet Now: $5.50) rises a bit in grade/depth, but he is a horse who is in form for Tony Gollan. Slogged it out best to win four weeks ago over 2400m at the Gold Coast. The break between runs after that effort I like, does no work from the draw and is a key threat.
1 Hostage Of War (Bet Now: $13.00) comes through the Ambitious Prince race from two weeks back at Eagle Farm. Billie-Rose Andrew gave it a peach in front. She rated it perfectly and for a fair chunk of the straight, he looked the winner. Just felt the pinch late. I think back to 2000m is a big tick, lands on speed and will run a bold race.
Race 3. (14:13) Xxxx Dry Hcp (c6) 1600m
4 Rebel Salute (Bet Now: $4.60) is yet to miss a place in nine runs at the track, and is racing like the mile will suit, so I think he’s right in this. Ran over 1350m her three weeks ago when back in the run and never really a winning factor, but his finale was sound behind Sir Warwick. The mile should be ideal. Hopefully can sit closer in the run.
1 Kubrick (Bet Now: $3.60) is three weeks between runs for Chris Waller since he recorded his first win since The Bondi when a strong winner at this track/distance, aided by a peach from Larry Cassidy. The problem being can he repeat the dose? If the answer is yes, then he likely wins again.
2 Rule The World (Bet Now: $6.50) is certainly capable if he produced somewhere near his best. First run for the Edmonds camp came over 1400m at Eagle Farm a few weeks back where he had run of the race behind the speed. Loomed to win but couldn’t quite get there when fourth to Ziemba. Knockout chance with that run under the belt.
Race 4. (14:52) Mount Franklin (bm72) 1600m
12 Sienna’s Choice (Bet Now: $4.20) is a hard fit/in form mare for Kelly Schweida that should prove hard to beat. She tried her heart out at Eagle Farm a fortnight back and was there to win, but just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to The Dark. Just has to hold her form to go close.
11 The Dark (Bet Now: $8.00) is a very consistent animal for Scott Morrisey that was bursting to win a Saturday race and that finally came two weeks ago over the mile at Eagle Farm, just getting the win over Sienna’s Choice. That was his first look at the mile for the prep and he passed with flying colours. Hard to beat.
4 Neutron (Bet Now: $2.40) should be suited up in trip. Kacy Fogden trained gelding that was a dominant winner over 1350m here two back. Then raced at the same track/distance when doing work on speed and tiring late behind impressive winner and the very much in form Sir Warwick. Mile should be okay and has a touch of quality.
Race 5. (15:32) Country Final Raceday 4/12 Hcp 1200m
9 Me Me Lagarde (Bet Now: $3.90) on top for me. Team Edmonds trained filly that resumes, having not raced since the Autumn when having a two start prep as a juvenile, winning on debut at Ipswich before a good effort in the Bill Carter behind Rhapsody Rose. Trials leading in have been strong and she finds a winnable race.
If you were on 10 Putonaredlight (Bet Now: $2.00) last start, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. That last start was three weeks ago at this track/distance and it was a slaughter from Thornton. Probed for a run instead of angling wider and being patient to get clear air. Charged to just miss. Jockey upgrade and clear air this time around, hard to beat.
6 Arentree (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Chris Meagher trained colt that was heavily backed and started odds on when debuting at the Sunny Coast. Sat on speed and gave a good kick, just couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late. Harder here, but has a good racing pattern and is down in the weights.
Race 6. (16:12) Cascade (bm80) 1050m
6 Lyrical Girl (Bet Now: $2.60) is short course mare for Tony Gollan that is well placed here. On speed win here three weeks ago and unlike previous runs, she found under pressure, fended them off and was too good, beating Shamaton, who spanked them last Saturday, so the form reads well.
9 She Can Sing (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Michael Costa trained mare has her share of talent. Has been given a mini let up since a strong win near the speed on her home track at the Gold Coast back on September 18. Tick over trial was a good piece of work and maps super. Hard to beat.
There is a stack of speed here, which I think suits 5 One Stryke (Bet Now: $27.00) and is a knockout chance. Ran over 1100m three weeks ago at the Gold Coast when on testing ground and battled on okay in defeat behind Juke’s Spirit, a talented animal. He’ll park off a hot speed and be strong late.
Race 7. (16:52) Tab Venue Mode (bm72) 1200m
2 The Big Goodbye (Bet Now: $3.80) looks the map horse. Had a beaut sit in transit two weeks ago at Eagle Farm and though took a little while to get into his work, he was strong late and impressive. He’s a very honest animal that maps well, in form and should be hold to hold out.
14 Salateen (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Tony Gollan trained mare that should prove hard to beat here. Tempo was against her two back at Eagle Farm when third to Centrefire. Raced at the Eagle Farm 1200m again two weeks ago and was on speed, trying hard, but was clearly no match for a very much dominant Nicci Trix. That form does read well.
Back to 1200m is a big, big tick for 6 Broken Hero (Bet Now: $27.00). Peach front running ride from Nothdurft on Cup Day over 1400m and he looked home when he booted clear. But, 1400m finds him out and he was run down late. Back to 1200m I do like and is a knockout chance.
Race 8. (17:32) Keith Noud Quality 1200m
4 Tambo’s Mate (Bet Now: $4.00) is unbeaten on wet ground and with fitness on his side, he gets the nod. I say he has fitness but he is several weeks between runs since winning over 1050m here. Freshened up with eyes on the Carnival, lands in a plum spot from the draw and is the safe option.
12 Simply Fly (Bet Now: $3.90) has a tricky draw to overcome but hard to knock the way he has returned. Bias beat him first up before racing on Cup Day when a narrow second to Kylease at Eagle Farm. Hard fit now and up to 1200m, off a good speed, he’ll take beating I’d suggest.
7 Chapter And Verse (Bet Now: $23.00) is the class runner of the field and that will carry him a long way. You’d assume he has eyes on the Summer Carnival and Magic Millions Day. Hasn’t raced since Magic Millions Day when close up in the QTIS race. Three trials to get ready, I doubt he wins, but wouldn’t shock to see him fill a minor spot.
Race 9. (18:12) Gallopers Sports Club (bm85) 1350m
2 Constant Flight (Bet Now: $16.00) can prove hard to beat here. David Vandyke trained gelding that resumed a few weeks ago over 1200m at Eagle Farm. Paraded like he would need the run but there was specking at odds and he didn’t run a bad race I thought behind Royal Hale. Tick over trial at Deagon to keep him up to the mark, keen to see how he goes.
9 Dzsenifer (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented mare for Gary Duncan that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since August 7 when a strong winner over the mile here. Is she a horse that could head towards The Gateway? Resuming at 1350m I do like for her and though resumes without a public trial, she’s a very genuine mare.
8 Slow Hands (Bet Now: $35.00) is a son of Reliable Man resuming for Kelly Schweida. He’s better suited over a bit further, but can sprint well fresh. His last run was the Rockhampton Cup when far from disgraced in defeat behind Regal Stage, beaten just over two lengths. Not sure he wins, but one for exotics.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Heroic Son
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 4 Eloquently
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 4 Rebel Salute
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 5, 6, 8, 9
Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 10, 14
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7, 12
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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