13/1/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

An eight race twilight program has been assembled for Caulfield on Wednesday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.

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Tricky race for the fillies to kick off the program. I didn’t mind the jumpout of 6 Lady Audrey (Bet Now: $4.60) from a couple of weeks ago at Flemington. Showed good early toe to lead throughout under Jamie Kah without really being extended and ran solid time for the morning. In a race with so many unknowns, leaning her way.

8 Spicy (Bet Now: $4.50) looks to have ability. Ellerton/Zahra trained filly that has had a couple of Flemington jumpouts to get ready for start one and has looked pretty good each time she has stepped out. Latest jumpout saw her lead all the way and safely hold Arcaded, so think she beats that filly home here and stable is in form.

Of the two runners with race experience, I’m interested in 2 Ain’tsheserious (Bet Now: $7.00). Kept very safe in betting when debuting at Geelong on Boxing Day and on face value, she was just fair, but she did get held up at a vital stage, pretty much losing all momentum. Giving her respect with the run under the belt.

Does look a race in two. Just with the race fit 7 Medic (Bet Now: $5.50) for Peter Moody. Resumed at Stony Creek over 1100m where she was heavily backed and if you were on, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. She should have won. Just no luck at a vital stage between the 400m-200m when wanting to build the revs. Got clear late and savaged the line. If she can hold up from gate one and the breaks go her way, she can take this out.

Think that two have a margin on the rest. Next best for me is 2 All Stardom (Bet Now: $2.35) for Jerome Hunter. Resumed at Sale where he had to sit off the fence in leading and that is never an ideal spot to be. Tried hard but just tired late when third. Gets the jockey upgrade with Jamie Kah taking over and draws soft. Personally, I am stunned he is $2.30. He should be triple that, at least.

5 South Parade (Bet Now: $4.60) is the other key winning chance but he’s just so hard to read. John Sadler trained three year old that returns to racing as a gelding after a promising opening prep as a two year old in the Winter, including a couple of tidy efforts at Flemington behind Cherry Tortoni. Just one soft jumpout a few weeks ago, so where are his fitness levels at? Market will be the guide.

At the time of writing this preview, 2 I’m Thunderstruck (Bet Now: $3.00) was also accepted for Kilmore on Tuesday. I hope they run here because this is a very winnable metro maiden for a first starter. Son of Shocking on debut for the Price/Kent team and I loved his recent jumpout win at Caulfield. Sat on speed and when he was clicked up, he showed change up speed and was impressive. He’s smart and looks to have a bit on these IMO.

6 Glitzy Girl (Bet Now: $6.00) is Team McEvoy filly that resumes. Debuted on a heavy track at Sandown during the Winter when wide no cover for the trip and didn’t let down in the conditions, finishing down the track behind Chequerboard. Thought her recent Flemington jumpout was encouraging and Olly sticks.

A definite market watch for sure with 1 Beast (Bet Now: $9.00), a Zoustar three year old on debut for Team Hawkes. He had three trials in Sydney during a Spring prep without racing. Spelled and is now at the Flemington stable where he looked solid enough in a recent Flemington jumpout, so watch the market.

This race has really opened up after a couple of key scratchings. The map looks more kind now for 10 Fredrick The Dane (Bet Now: $3.90), resuming for the Hayes/Dabernig team. He is the only early speed horse drawn wide now, so McNeil will have a few options, whether to push hard early or just sit wide and let those inside sort themselves. He’s got the talent and looks ready to go off a recent sharp jumpout.

3 Elderflower (Bet Now: $3.70) has the Miss Albania form which is gold at the moment for progressive Mares. Lindsey Smith trains this one and has bumped into Miss Albania her past two, being far from disgraced each time she has stepped out. Gets the claim for young Rawiller, should roll forward and prove hard to beat.

8 Princess Flagrant (Bet Now: $12.00) can bounce back here. Has the Warren/Krongold polish and was a few weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington when far from disgraced in defeat behind Paul’s Regret. Then went to Mornington and was good in defeat behind Raven’s Blaze. Can run a positive race at odds.

Very tough race to sort out with confidence this one. 9 Rich Dane (Bet Now: $13.00) has progression and upside to come, plus with the lightweight, happy to be in her corner. Not sure it was a strong maiden she lined up in at Sale last time out but she bolted up under Matty Cartwright and was much too good. Form around her prior to that wasn’t too bad. Can roll forward with the low weight and give a sight.

3 The Mockingbird (Bet Now: $7.50) deserves another chance. Put together a couple of strong wins at Terang before going to 2100m at Sandown and on face value, it was just a run behind Laundy, but that horse got an absolute picnic in front and those from behind were never beating him. Back to 1800m and back in depth, can be an improver.

2 Robe De Fete (Bet Now: $23.00) is the big unknown here. He was just too bad to be true at Flemington on New Years Day behind Fundraiser, but he did set a pretty good gallop, which set it up for those behind him. Interesting he steps up in trip…do they ride him with cover? Can improve big time.

Good little 64 for the Mares with a host of chances. I do like the look though of 5 Crowned Monarch (Bet Now: $11.00) for Mitch Freedman. Has won her past two, firstly a strong win from the back to break the maiden tag at Moe before going to Mornington where she was well backed late and after a nice sit just off the pace, she got to the outside and finished over the top. Likely eases back from the gate, but has a booming finish on her and gets the claim for Tahlia Hope.

14 Shojiki (Bet Now: $8.50) is a very interesting runner. Phillip Stokes trained mare that resumes after a two run Winter prep to start her career. Produced a big effort to win on debut at Morphettville after sitting wide no cover. She then went to the Parks track and bumped into a strong 58 when fourth to Lady Bethany. Couple of Pakenham jumpouts have been impressive and draws well.

7 Diamond Thora (Bet Now: $27.00) is hit and miss but her best is good enough to measure up to these. Her bad side was on display fresh at Bendigo so the stable sent her back to a 58 at Echuca and under a lovely ride from Mick Dee, she was impressive in winning, slicing her way through the field. If she produces that here, can measure up to these.

Landed with 4 Smart Elissim (Bet Now: $5.50). Hayes/Dabernig trained gelding that brings Saturday form for this after racing over 1100m here and working home strongly from the back when a close up fourth to Hidden Legend. Can sit closer in the run this time around and do like Olly sticking.

7 Dirty Deeds (Bet Now: $4.40) has a very good engine under the hood but he does have a few loose screws upstairs. Ellerton/Zahra stable trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since September 9 at Sandown when again tardy away and working home strongly behind Zero Doubt. Liked his recent Flemington jumpout and if he’s within range on the turn, he’s good enough.

9 Charleise (Bet Now: $5.00) is a big watch here. Handy mare who has a solid record, but do feel she is much better on top of the ground and if you look at her form on dry tracks, it does read very well. Has been given a good grounding for her return with several jumpouts, the latest seeing her win at Terang. Best is clearly good enough.

4 King Magnus (Bet Now: $3.80) is hard fit, in form and racing well. Led at a good clip at this track/distance last time out and fought on pretty well despite getting the staggers late when a close up fifth to Rule The World, beaten 1.55L. Been up a while but is holding his form and should get run of the race from the draw.

12 Tycoon Bella (Bet Now: $4.20) is crying out for 1400m and she gets it here for Cindy Alderson. Could very easily make a case to say she should have won at Mornington last time, but things just didn’t go to plan late when Walker wanted to get clear. Getting back to some positive form and strikes a winnable race.

9 Te Ata (Bet Now: $101.00) is a fascinating runner. Declan Maher trained mare who has had a few weeks off since racing on Pakenham Cup Day in a Mares race when down the track and somewhat outclassed behind Metronome. Form out of that race has been good and I was taken by a recent Terang jumpout. One to include in wider multiples.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 I’m Thunderstruck

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Medic

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 9 Rich Dane

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 8, 9

Leg Two: 4, 5, 7, 13, 14

Leg Three: 4, 7, 8, 9

Leg Four: 4, 5, 9, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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