12/9/2015 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Makybe Diva Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Flemington for the first time in six months this Saturday, with the $400,000 Group l Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) highlighting a bumper nine race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race One (12:25pm) : Cap D’Antibes Stakes 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Petits Filous (Best Odds: $1.80) on top. This unbeaten Ciaron Maher trained filly has had three starts for three wins, the most recent coming on her home track at Caulfield where she proved far too good for her rivals in the Quezette Stakes (1100m) when leading all the way. Little freshen up looks ideal, and she looks very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Payroll (Best Odds: $9.50) is the interesting runner. She created good interest during the Winter, with the highlight coming two back at Caulfield when a fast finishing second to Black Vanquish. She then went to Brisbane for the Sires Produce, but by then she was looking spelling paddock. Hasn’t trialled, so her fitness levels are unknown, but the class and raw talent is there.
Roughie: Strykum (Best Odds: $17.00) is a smart filly for Team Freedman who resumed at the Valley and produced a sharp turn of foot after leading to win with a fair bit of ease, and ran good time for the distance. She has early toe and is trained on the track, which is an advantage. Last 100m will test, but she is classy.

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Race Two (12:55pm) : Softiel Girls’ Day Out 2500 2500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Reigning (Best Odds: $6.50) for me here. He was ridden a bit upside down last start at the Valley where he was ridden more forward, which really isn’t his go, but he fought on quite well to finish a close up third to stablemate Sir Mako. He is better ridden with a sit and something to chase, and Schofield is back on, and he does ride the horse very well.
Big Danger: Sir Mako (Best Odds: $8.50) does look the threat. He was given a cold ride from Newitt in that race mentioned above before getting into the clear on the turn and letting down powerfully to get the win in the last couple of strides. This doesn’t look any harder and I think he will be suited on the bigger track, plus Newitt remains on.
Roughie: The old boy Crafty Cruiser (Best Odds: $9.50) ran a credible eighth in that race also, and I thought his effort was very good considering he was being asked to carry 61.5kg and was forced very wide on the home turn. He loves racing at Flemington and Melham is back aboard, and he rides the horse better than anyone. This is the sort of race where he could win easily without surprising me.

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Race Three (1:30pm) : Pin And Win Stakes 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Prince Of Brooklyn (Best Odds: $6.00) on top. He looked sharp in a couple of trial wins before resuming in the McNeil at Caulfield, and despite being trained on the track, he lost the plot on the turn, losing all momentum and winning claims. Despite that, he did finish off alright very late in the race. Looks better suited on a bigger track, fitter and is definitely suited up to 1400m.
Big Danger: El Greco (Best Odds: $7.00) ran in the McKenzie a couple of weeks back and was another that wasn’t suited by a smaller track, not handling the Valley circuit at all when fourth to Well Sprung. His three runs at Flemington have been very good and should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Lizard Island (Best Odds: $11.00) is a four start maiden for Pat Hyland who ran a close up third last week at Sandown behind Stellar Creation, beaten just under a length. He should be suited by the rise to 1400m and is a threat despite not winning a race.

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Race Four (2:10pm) : Danehill Stakes 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Just looks a lovely race for Ready For Victory (Best Odds: $3.60). He went enormous when resuming in the McNeil Stakes (1200m), getting badly held up in the early stages of the straight before cutting back to the inside and just savaging the line to finish a close up second to Gold Synphony, who will go around in the Golden Rose as a leading contender. Ready For Victory is my early pick for the Caulfield Guineas, so I think he will be better when the distances increase, but I think he has the brilliance to win.
Big Danger: Raphael’s Cat (Best Odds: $5.50) resumed at Canterbury three weeks back and sat on speed all the way for a pretty strong win, beating home Tap This, who franked the form by running well in the Ming Dynasty last Saturday at Randwick. Interesting that Gai has sent him down to Melbourne, and while on face value he needs to improve a couple of lengths to win, he creates interest.
Roughie: Reemah (Best Odds: $14.00) ran the closest of seconds to Pride Of Dubai in the Blue Diamond before failing in the Slipper. He resumed on the Geelong Synthetic a couple of weeks back and took care of an average lot, but he did it well and it was a good confidence boost. He can certainly beat these and is trained on the track, so he would have many hit outs down the straight.

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Race Five (2:45pm) : The Sofitel 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Keen here on the Team Hawkes runner Leebaz (Best Odds: $12.00), who resumes after a solid Autumn/Winter, which ended with a win in the Hollindale before a failure in the Doomben Cup behind Pornichet. His recent jump outs here have been pretty good, he flies fresh and should get every chance from the good gate, plus he is clearly the class runner.
Big Danger: Yesterday’s Songs (Best Odds: $3.80) was a real eye catcher in the Regal Roller, working home strongly between runners late to finish third to Setinum. He returns to Flemington and he loves racing here, he draws well and Boss is back on, and he won on the horse at the end of last prep.
Roughie: Akavoroun (Best Odds: $15.00) is an intriguing runner. He was a bit disappointing in three runs during the Autumn, but his Cranbourne trial and Caulfield jump outs have been very sharp, and IMO, he looks wound up enough to win first up. On his day, he can beat these and do it comfortably, so watch market moves with this bloke.

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Race Six (3:25pm) : Bobbie Lewis Quality 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Team Hawkes and Dwayne Dunn to combine again here with Kaepernick (Best Odds: $7.50), who resumes here after a couple of runs during the Brisbane Winter which resulted in a couple of luckless placings. He comes to Melbourne after trialling recently at Rosehill, and he looked very good when fourth to That’s A Good Idea. He is drawn to get a clear run, and he can produce a booming finish ala stablemate Chautauqua.
Big Danger: Rich Enuff (Best Odds: $3.70) trialled very well prior to resuming at Caulfield where led most of the way, but was simply just no match for star mare Bounding, who just blitzed the opposition. No Bounding here, and with the run under the belt, he should take some beating here.
Roughie: The interesting runner is the Queensland galloper Worthy Cause (Best Odds: $26.00), who did win at Stakes level during the Brisbane Winter, and wasn’t far off them in the Derby. He resumed at Doomben a few weeks back and just blitzed his rivals. Whether he can win this is a query, but the talent is certainly there, and he has a stack of upside.

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Race Seven (4:05pm) : Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Finding it hard to tip against Boban (Best Odds: $4.60) here. He wasn’t suited inside runners and in the worst ground when running in the Memsie Stakes (1400m), but his class and brilliance got him home for another Group l win. His recent efforts at Flemington have been okay without much luck, including the 2014 edition of this race. But he is going much better now and I see no reason to jump off.
Big Danger: Great to see Fawkner (Best Odds: $5.00) back at the races. He hasn’t raced since finishing a game tenth to Protectionist in the Melbourne Cup. One thing that should be noted is that only one horse has won since running in the Cup last year, and between the runners, there have been 20 odd runs, so that as a form reference is a real question mark. Still, Fawkner is a bomb when produced fresh and is lethal at Flemington.
Roughie: Happy Trails (Best Odds: $11.00) also ran in the Memsie and he was completely luckless when 12th to Boban given he had no luck at all in the straight and pretty much went to the line under a hold. He also was luckless in the Makybe Diva last year, and he loves racing at Flemington. He is a knockout chance.

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Race Eight (4:45pm): Let’s Elope Stakes 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: This is the hardest race of the day. I thought Vezalay (Best Odds: $8.50) was enormous in defeat when running in the Cockram at Caulfield where she sat three deep on speed for the entire trip before taking the lead early on in the straight and she just felt the pinch late to run third to Madam Gangster. Should get a softer trip here and Oliver is back aboard.
Big Danger: Cosmic Endeavour (Best Odds: $6.50) was a real eye catcher when resuming in the Cockram. She didn’t look happy at all around the track and lost momentum at the top of the straight, but she picked up and was strong late. Bigger track here looks perfect, draws well and McEvoy rides here.
Roughie: May’s Dream (Best Odds: $9.00) started bolters odds when resuming in the Cockram, but she was clearly the eye catcher of the beaten brigade, storming home from near last to run fourth. Bigger track, give in the ground, better barrier and Johnny Allen remains on. It wouldn’t surprise me if she got the job done in a very open race.

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Race Nine (5:20pm) : Spring Is The Season Handicap 1700m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting the Chris Waller trained Diametric (Best Odds: $17.00) on top. His three runs in Melbourne this time in have been fantastic, starting off with a strong fifth at Caulfield behind Miss Rose De Lago, then ran third to stablemate Bagman before going back to Caulfield and finishing a close up third to Our Voodoo Prince. Looks beautifully placed here and will prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Observational (Best Odds: $7.00) made his Australian debut for Lloyd Williams in the Golden Mile on the stand alone Bendigo program in the Autumn, and he just produced a stunning turn of foot from the back to score a brilliant win. That race has been a good guide to Spring contenders in recent years, so big watch on this runner as he heads towards the big three.
Roughie: Extra Zero (Best Odds: $15.00) stuck on very well when resuming over 1400m here when second to Charmed Harmony before going to the Heatherlie at Caulfield and went well I thought when fifth to Magnapal. Back to Flemington suits and being third up, he should be near ready fitness wise.

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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 10, 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 11, 14

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.