12/8/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

3 Lakota Fire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat if he runs up to last start. That came over this trip on the Parks track where he was outside the genuine speed but trucking before being clicked up by Opperman and gee he gapped them late for a sharp maiden win. Ran well on debut in a strong maiden so he ticks plenty of boxes to say he’s hard to beat against these.

1 Epic Proportions (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in three career outings and is a straight bat option. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was suited by the pattern, sitting on speed and stuck on well enough after looming, running a narrow second to Title Fighter. If the track plays that way again, he has to be given serious respect.

6 Piastri (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. He was an impressive maiden winner two back on the Ballarat Synthetic before going to 1200m at Caulfield a few weeks back where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, he did make up headway and was a definite pass mark. Fast run 1000m I think suit and he will be strong at the end.

4 Twin Perfection (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Phillip Stokes and deserves a crack at Saturday metro level. He is over two weeks between runs since a win at the midweeks at Sandown where he was on speed and credit to him, he was there to be run down by Luna Cat, but he found under pressure, fended them off and was too good. More depth here, but hard to knock the way he’s racing.

10 Hissy Fit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat for Team Yargi. Market took a set against her when resuming at the midweeks at Sandown, potentially saying she’d need the run, and that’s how it panned out because she was there to win but couldn’t quite get past Neverstandingstill, finishing second. Fitter, I think it all points to her running well.

5 Jungle Sensation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be around the mark for Andrew Homann. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since July 6 at Moe when a heavily backed odds on pop but after landing on speed, he couldn’t quite finish it off when a tiring third to Maliepo. Has run well at The Valley previously…not sure he wins, but a first four threat.

7 Lievore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) did the right thing by us two weeks ago and have to butter up. She was another example of the pattern helping because she looked gone on the turn but found under Williams and held her rivals at bay to win. Bias helped her, but the run prior, she was brave after sitting wide throughout, so she’s in good form and has the right racing style.

6 Pitchanun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) loves racing at The Valley and the way she is racing at the moment, I think she has to be rated as the one to beat. I’d be very forgiving of her run at Flemington a few weeks ago given she was back in a race where it turned into a barrier trial and she just doesn’t have the speed in the legs to go sub 34 when fourth to Delicious Tycoon, but the run had good merit. Back to her favourite track, happy to be in her corner.

9 Lady Court (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. She was specked at odds when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back. She was there to win when presented on the turn but couldn’t quite see out the mile strongly enough and had to settle for a second to Lievore. Racing well without winning but strikes another winnable race.

6 Master Of Chant (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, has a decent engine under the hood. Former UK galloper that made his Australian debut for the Busuttin/Young camp at Sale where he led throughout under Blake Shinn and credit to him, he was dominant in the run to the line. 1600m is a slight query but he has the right racing pattern to give himself every chance here.

11 Okay Cupid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing in super form for GaiBott. He has won two on the bounce, each time seeing him lead throughout and credit to him, each win he has been there to be beaten but he found and on the line was strong, so 1600m is no issue, he should find the front and prove hard to run down.

9 Seb Song (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a winner at The Valley and comes here off a win. That came on the Synthetic at Pakenham where he gave them a start and a beating, launching late to finish over the top for a big win. Likely has to drag back from the gate and if the track is playing hot inside, he’s no chance. If it’s fair, he’s a knockout hope.

8 Show Some Decorum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Team Freedman trained gelding that resumed at Morphettville where he seemingly had every chance near the speed but being first up, condition just gave way and had to settle for a narrow third to Karacasu. Good upside to come and with good speed in front, he’ll get his chance to sit off and be strong late.

9 Shalaman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done a pretty good job since joining Gavin Bedggood and this horse does tend to save his best for The Valley. Pattern was in his corner two weeks back but even allowing for that, he was still impressive in leading throughout and fending off a nice horse in Pereille. Good racing style and if the track is playing up/in, he’s dangerous.

3 Sessions Road (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous. He has run well here previously and will be stronger than most at the end. He ran in the Dance To Dubai race from several weeks ago at Flemington where he got back to near last in the run and was never a factor but I really liked the way he found the line late. If he’s within range, he has the finale to beat these.

2 Wascaly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here for Smiley Chan. He resumed over the mile at Sandown where he was well specked at odds but just got too far back in the run but really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind King Couver. Was down to run last Saturday but has been kept on ice for this and is a promising animal with good upside.

11 Superstock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. He ran a fortnight back at this track/distance in the Magnaspin race and considering the track pattern, I thought he was one of the better runs of the meeting, closing off okay out wide behind Magnaspin. If the track is playing more fairly here, off last run, he is good enough to take this out.

14 Red Columbine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Griffiths/De Kock. Market said he was a moral when racing over 2200m at Geelong last time and under a confident steer from Mertens, he gapped them, sitting wide with cover before angling wider into clear air and was far too good. He has run well in town before and off that win, he’s a definite chance.

2 Milford (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am going. He should have won two weeks ago at this track/distance but unfortunately he couldn’t jump over the top of them and it ended up being a horrendous watch when third to Flash Feeling. If the breaks go his way and gets the rub of the green, he is going well enough to take this out. Happy to be in his corner.

5 Flash Flood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is becoming a winning machine with Maher/Eustace and we have seen that these horses that win, they keep on winning. He had to contend with the bias a fortnight back here but to counter that, he had the featherweight in just nailing Irish Flame. Career best form, he has to be respected.

The track pattern was clearly evident with the way that 8 Irish Flame (Bet Now:  $SP.00) kicked on two weeks back at this track/distance. Despised rank outsider, he kicked up to lead and was a beaten horse a fair way out but the pattern kicked in, he fought and really, it was the bob of the head that beat him. But, he has found positive form, his confidence will be up…one for exotics.

13 Christmas (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a leading contender. Paul Preusker trained gelding that is a few weeks between runs since racing over 2400m at Sandown where he got a fair way back in the run and did make up solid ground behind the in form Pachino. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run and be strong late.

11 Botany (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and she can go on with it. That win came at the midweeks at Sandown when on speed throughout and credit to her, she was there to be run down but she found under pressure and was strong to the line. Harder here but will give a sight.

I doubt 6 Never Again (Bet Now:  $SP.00) wins but he can pinch a first four spot. He ran in the Claidheamh Mor race from two weeks back here. Given the pattern and race shape, he was never a winning factor, but did make up headway and was far from disgraced in defeat. As I said, I don’t think he is going well enough to win, but is a must for multiples.

I reckon 4 Omni Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is here with a look at the track as their main focus. If he handles it and passes with flying colours, they will look at races like the Moir and Manikato. He is three weeks between runs since an all the way win at Rosehill where he was there to be run down but kicked strongly late to fend off Dragonstone, who ran well last Saturday in the Missile so the form reads well and he has such a good racing style.

8 Inundation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the likely winner if he brings his best. He resumes for Price/Kent, with his last run coming at Sandown when running last in the field of five behind Tycoon Humma, where he didn’t pull up 100% post race. Given a good break and looked sharp in a recent jumpout win at Cranbourne. If he brings his best, he likely wins. But, listening to Mick Price earlier this week, he has pretty much said the horse is gone, so a massive market watch.

5 Sweet Ride (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in for a good prep and has the run under the belt. He was second up over 1100m at Rosehill a few back when on speed throughout and tried hard to wear down the in form Omni Man but being second up off a decent break, condition just gave way, tiring to finish third. Hard fit now and has raced well here previously. Dangerous.

11 Pereille (Bet Now:  $SP.00), if he runs up to last start, wins. Given the way the track played last start at The Valley, he was pretty much no chance. The fact he got as close as he did, it was the run of the meeting by an absolute mile. He’s turned the corner IMO and is an actual race horse, not a milk drinker. If he runs up to last start, he wins.

13 Luna Cat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good upside to come and has run well at The Valley previously. She resumed at the midweeks at Sandown where she was given every chance by Oliver, looming large to win but being first up, condition just gave way when second to Twin Perfection. Second up winner, good upside to come, she appeals.

6 Lord Domino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give cheek. He was unwanted in betting at this track/distance two weeks back when near the speed, chasing Shalaman, and was helped by the pattern but did fight on well enough to claim third. Not sure I could back him to win but can certainly pinch a first four spot.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 11 Pereille

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 4 Omni Man

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 Show Some Decorum

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 1, 6, 11, 13, 15

Leg Three: 4

Leg Four: 11

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