12/6/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Hyperion Stakes day

Bit of rain forecast leading into Saturday so I’m working on a Soft5/6 track at best. Back to 1000m I find interesting with 7 Snippy Miss (Bet Now: $6.00) but she does look the most progressive of this lot. Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago and worked home strongly from the back when a narrow second to Ohbeeh. Suspect types engaged here and she’ll be strong at the end.

1 Fiery Water (Bet Now: $4.60) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who is a few weeks between runs and comes back to 1000m from 1500m. The last start came at Pinjarra where she had a suck run behind the speed but didn’t finish it off and was plain. Back to 1000m with give in the track, Pike on, she can bounce back.

5 City Circle (Bet Now: $4.80) seems to only run for one rider, which is Chris Parnham and he is back on the mare. Ran over this track/distance two weeks back and seemed to get every chance, but didn’t fire when asked to go. Significant jockey change, give in the track and a soft draw gives her a shout.

I think the Fred Kersley pair are the way to go here, with a leaning towards 2 Guard The Safe (Bet Now: $2.60). He and Bandalera Beau fought the finish out at this track/distance last Wednesday, with that horse just getting the bob in a tight go. Feel there is more to come though via Guard The Safe and maps much better, so with him.

1 Bandalera Beau (Bet Now: $4.50) does look the key threat. He did win that race mentioned above and really surged hard late, just getting the bob in a close photo finish. Interesting to see where he lands from the gate, but no doubting he has the engine under the hood to take this out.

5 Needs Time (Bet Now: $19.00) is an interesting runner. On the seven day back up after debuting over 1000m here last Saturday. He was back near last throughout and never really a winning factor, but liked the final part of his race, suggesting that he will appreciate further and he gets that here.

7 Jedi Mind (Bet Now: $4.00) is 2/2 this time in and I think he can make it 3/3. Loved the way he attacked the line to win over 1300m here last Wednesday, surging hard late to get the job done in a close finish. He’s racing like he will eat up 1400m and while he is 0/2 on wet ground, both runs saw him unlucky.

1 Son Son (Bet Now: $3.50) deserves another chance. Adam Durrant trained three year old that had to chase a strong speed when racing here a fortnight back and by the time he got to the leader, he was a tired horse and was gathered in late. Has the runs on the board to forgive last start.

4 The Spruiker (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Steve Wolfe three year old that was specked at a big price when resuming here three weeks ago and those who took the longer odds were spot on as he finished best from off the speed to get the job done. Harder here, but he is a last start Saturday winner, so he commands respect.

5 Secret Statue (Bet Now: $4.50) on top for me. Team Williams trained four year old that is third up and should be hard fit. Ran over this track/distance last Wednesday and he was very good from the back, charging late to run a narrow third to Brother Paddy. Does he want further? Perhaps, but I’ll bank on Pike timing his run right.

6 Brave Dream (Bet Now: $10.00) is a stablemate of Secret Statue who does look hard to beat. Ran over 1400m at Northam last time out where the market didn’t want a bar of her late, and given she was back near last and wide, the market got it right, but her finale was excellent. If she can sit closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

7 Cornflower (Bet Now: $23.00) is one I can include in wider multiples. Resumed over 1400m here last Wednesday where she had the suck run behind the speed and tried hard. Just lacked the turn of foot to put them away and had to settle for third. Gets a suck run once again and is a first four threat.

On top is 6 Island Missile (Bet Now: $13.00) for the Gangemi camp. He comes back to 1200m after racing over 1300m here last time out. Got a mile back in the run and worked home strongly behind Billy Ray. He has a much better barrier to use now so if it is used to advantage, he’ll take a power of beating I suggest.

Looks to be good speed here and that will suit 5 Devoted Star (Bet Now: $2.70). Opportunity missed here a fortnight back I feel given she does tend to race best on the fresh side and charged home late to just miss out on the win. The saving grace for her here is there is good speed, so she can sit back and launch late.

2 Agent Jay (Bet Now: $9.00) should prove hard to beat for Stephen Miller. Resumed over 1000m here two weeks back when on speed throughout and when asked to go, he gave a good kick. His condition just ran out late and he tired. Good second up record and you would assume he will come on from the resumption.

Handles bar down from the outset with 8 Madam Torio (Bet Now: $6.00). That is the way it reads anyway given she only knows one way to run and has just 51kg on her back after the claim. To the eye, she was plain fresh, but was slow to recover post race, so there were excuses. Her best will see her prove very hard to run down.

9 This’ll Testya (Bet Now: $4.80) will likely have a stalking role on Madam Torio, either tagging the leader or dragging the field up to the filly. She has done little wrong this time in, her latest run being a second to Nerodio here two weeks ago. Just needs to put a win on the board and she gets a great chance here.

1 Flow (Bet Now: $71.00) has an excellent second up record and has class. 1000m is short of his best, and that was clearly the case to the eye behind Nerodio, but he does go much better second up, he’s in well after the claim and a little bit of juice in the track I think will be idea for him.

9 Aberdeen Queen (Bet Now: $3.90) should love the rise to the mile for Lindsey Smith. Impressive fresh win over 1100m at Northam before going to 1300m here. Just found it on the short side but was good late and produce some of the better late splits of the race. Gets to an ideal trip now, hard fit and in form.

Market will be fascinating with 6 Zaratite (Bet Now: $5.50), a quality mare for Team Williams that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since August 2019 when a close up second over 2200m here. Has clearly had her issues, but three trials to get ready for her return suggest a decent fitness base is there. Just need to wait and see what the market does.

1 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $5.00) is the interesting one. He was down to run last Saturday over 2200m (scratched) after racing over the mile here three weeks ago where he got held up before eventually getting clear and finding the line well . His best is good enough and does have a touch of class.

Looks a race in two. Leaning towards 3 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $2.50), purely from a map perspective. He had the A1 run in transit when resuming in the Belmont Sprint and when Pateman asked for the big effort, the turn of foot was there, he exploded and was dominant. Just has to hold that form and I think he wins again.

Just how good is 13 Leading Girl? (Bet Now: $4.20) Is she a Railway/Kingston Town type? We’ll get somewhat of a guide here because she’ll likely be spotting The Velvet King are a decent start. But, her return was fabulous here two weeks ago, albeit the overall time was significantly slower than the time The Velvet King ran in the Belmont Sprint. But, she’s got enormous upside.

10 Kay Cee (Bet Now: $8.00) is unbeaten second up and that is her saving grace. This prep, you could almost say she is racing for her career because this season, she has done little, and that was the case fresh in the Belmont Sprint after getting a suck run in behind. Her best is more than good enough, so watch the market.

Throw at the stumps in the get out via 7 Bonneville Black (Bet Now: $46.00). Been waiting and waiting for him to get to Belmont and here he is. The body of work is there to suggest he does save his best for Belmont rather than Ascot, and he did come of age this time last year when he got to Belmont. Gets in well after the claim and I think at big odds, he’s worth a speck.

Pike jumps back on 4 Born To Try (Bet Now: $3.00) and I think she’ll take beating here. Can make a strong case to say she should have won over 2100m here two weeks ago. Got badly held up a vital stage before eventually getting clear and charging late to just miss out on picking up Blackwater Bay. Pike in the last…you know how this generally goes.

14 Juliette (Bet Now: $34.00) is a stayer that is one paced but will stay all day, which was the case over 2300m at Pinjarra last time out and kept chipping away when third to Baronova. She’s a mare who likes wet ground, down in the weights and I think is one to include in exotics.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Secret Statue

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 The Velvet King

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 8 Madam Torio

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 9

Leg Three: 3, 13

Leg Four: 3, 4, 7, 14

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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