12/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Canberra, Black Opal Stakes day

The two day Canberra Carnival kicks off this Sunday where it is Black Opal Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Black Opal Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Black Opal Stakes

Starting to get to that time of year where 2YO’s against the older horses are gold and with that in mind, I’ll be with 8 Miss Ghent (Bet Now:  $SP.00) each way. Daughter of Dundeel that is on debut for Norm Gardner off the back of a couple of trials at Goulburn and each time she has got back and found the line really well. This maiden looks even on paper so going to have something on her at a price.

3 Vonk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t been too bad in two career outings for Pat Murphy. Thought he warmed to the task nicely late on debut at Goulburn before going to the Sapphire Coast where they rode him a touch warm and while he was far from disgraced in defeat, he wasn’t as dynamic compared to the debut. Massive jockey upgrade and strikes a winnable maiden.

Given Richard Bensley rides for Pat Murphy, he would likely have the choice of the stablemates and he goes with 1 Fairness Is Best (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who debuted over 1300m here a couple of weeks back and was good from off the speed when second to Witness To Love. Interesting he comes back to 1200m instead of a rise to 1400m but maps to get every chance.

There is a bit of depth to this Class 1. 6 Troika (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does get the nod though for Mark Newnham. He was good from the back fresh on the Beaumont track at Newcastle before going to Goulburn where he looked a good thing on paper and after getting into a sweet spot under Schiller, it was just a matter of pushing the button and away he went for a spank job win. As I said, there is depth to this field, but I think he goes pretty good.

9 Vinolass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Keith Dryden trained filly that resumes. She hasn’t raced since her debut back on October 19 at Wagga when an impressive winner on testing ground, sitting off the speed and letting down with nice change up speed to win impressively. Resumes without a public trial but first up on the home deck for a big day, she clearly appeals.

5 Press Ahead (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes for Matty Smith and is in with a shout. He had a two run prep at the back end of the Autumn last year, resuming with a second here behind subsequent Stakes placegetter Penthouse before winning the maiden at Nowra and was spelled. Couple of trials under the belt, and even though he may want a touch further, the form around him reads well.

4 Gravy Train Magpie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the straight bat option. Gratz Vella trained mare that led throughout to win at Wagga last time. It was a pretty solid win given she led throughout and didn’t really slow down at any stage, just keeping on running and giving nothing else a look in. Draws gate one and should find the front comfortably. From there, she’ll take running down.

5 Les Goh (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has only won the one race but she has done little wrong in a ten start career. Appreciated a genuine tempo to win two back at Wagga before going to this track/distance where she got back in the run and was good late without threatening behind impressive winner Pure Hydrogen. Molly Bourke sticks and he can settle closer in the run, she’ll prove to be a worthy threat.

2 Loose Love (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Todd Smart. On the seven day back up after racing at Moruya last Sunday where he got back to near last in the run and took a while into his work but was very good late when fifth to a handy horse, Jalmari. That is two runs at 1400m now so he’s looking for further, he gets it here, and hard to beat if he’s within range on the turn.

4 Twig (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to bring strong enough form lines to take this out. Matty Dale trained mare that has run in Federal races her past two, the latest being over this track/distance and found the line well, but had no answers for the finale produced by an in form mare at the time, Invertational. She has done little wrong this time in and the form around her reads pretty well for this.

6 Dream Intent (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and she can certainly go on with it. Didn’t do a bad job from the back two starts ago behind Crafty Eagle at Gosford before going to 1300m here where she lobbed into a beaut spot on speed under Dolan and in a driving finish, was too good for her rivals, just. Gets run of the race from the gate and is hard to beat.

9 Mookareena (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. She has placed her past couple, each run coming at the Sapphire Coast. Latest run came over 1400m where she attempted to lead throughout and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite get there when third to Hope Uno. If she finds the front and gets some level of control, she’ll take running down.

7 Kimura (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Star Witness filly for Michael Freedman that is resuming. This girl ended last prep on a high with a couple of wins at Newcastle where the margins were narrow but she kept finding the line to win. Not a noted fresh horse on paper but has trialled well leading in, maps to get a perfect run in transit and should be strong late.

6 Retiro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Formerly with Gary Portelli, he now finds himself with Matty Dale at Goulburn. His latest run came a few weeks ago at Gosford where he got back to near last in the run and was never really a factor behind Famous Pedrille. His best is certainly good enough to take this out and with T Clark aboard, you’d think they will roll forward. Watch the market.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 5 Onsettling Down (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This gelding resumed two weeks back at Queanbeyan over 900m where he was run off his legs early and was never a factor but was good late in the piece behind Maresca. Like him up in trip and while he lacks the quality of some of these, but will be strong late and is one to include in wider multiples.

2 Distillate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can produce sustained speed from the front and that is suited to 1000m races. He was big odds last time out on the Kenso track but he did his thing of rolling in front and was there to be run down but found under pressure to fend them off and win. Good track/distance record, lands in front and the depth here isn’t as strong. The one to beat.

4 Akeed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a couple of runs now at 1200m so back to 1000m is a big tick. His latest run came in the Bega Sprint at the Sapphire Coast and he tried his guts out but just found the six furlongs a bridge too far. Saves his best for the short course so 1000m here is ideal, he’ll settle near the front and proving hard to hold out.

1 Southern Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the market and yard watch. Quality sprinter that resumes for Danielle Seib, who hasn’t raced since the Canterbury Sprint on New Years Day when far from disgraced behind I Am Me. He has a bit on these re class, has trialled well leading in…1000m is on the short side, but he will be one of the strongest late.

5 Cavalier Charles (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he has been set for the race and has returned in super order. Resumed over 1200m at Randwick where he got back in the run and while he was never a factor, but was very good late in the piece behind the in form Much Much Better. Can settle much closer in the run this time around and has good upside, more than most.

3 Vreneli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse. He has been kept on ice since Feb 11 when just off the speed and failing to finish it off behind a very good horse, Think About It. He tends to race best when on speed and controlling, and that is the set up he looks to get here. Tick over trial was good, he’ll land in front and prove hard to run down.

2 Handle The Truth (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a great record on the home track and he has to be respected. He resumed over 1100m at Rosehill where he didn’t get the best of luck in the straight so forgive and forget he went around behind Andermatt. Much better set up this time around and fitter, up to 1400m, perfect map, he has to be a saver bet at the double figures.

14 Autumn Ballet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top in a pretty even edition of the Black Opal. GaiBott has a strong hand in the race, including this girl, who went like an absolute jet when winning a trial at Rosehill by over seven lengths and ran really good time. She’ll jump on the bunny and I think 54kg for Tim Clark is somewhat of a challenge, so that is a good lead for this filly in this race. Happy to be in her corner.

4 The Years (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the hardest to beat. He did more than enough on debut at Canterbury before going to the provincials at Kembla Grange where he led throughout and gave them a spanking, running pretty good time in the process. Reckon the form out of that race will hold up well and with his racing pattern, hard fit, he commands respect.

11 Madeira Sunrise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can pinch a top four spot. Solid debut win here before going to the Silver Slipper where she found the class a bit rich and couldn’t finish her race off when last in the field of six behind Cylinder. I think getting a rise to 1200m, she can run a much improved race and a win wouldn’t entirely shock with her so include in multiples.

16 Picko Rocks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one to beat in the get out. He ran last Saturday over 2000m at Hawkesbury and I thought the run was full of merit given he got a mile out of his ground and was very good late in the piece behind Esky, finishing third. He can settle much closer in the run if need be and with that 2000m run under the belt, that should hold him in good stead.

13 Domingo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been strong in two runs back from a break and third up at 2000m looks ideal. Avdulla tried to catch them napping at Warwick Farm last time and it all but worked but couldn’t quite sustain the run when second to Magadan. That run should toughen him up for this 2000m assignment and the depth, as a whole, is much weaker IMO.

5 Yarrawonga (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Rob Hickmott, he’s now with GaiBott. His lone run in Australia during the Swan Hill Carnival when down the track after doing work in the run. Two trials to get ready have been solid enough to the eye and with solid Irish form next to his name, he has to be respected. Watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Twig

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 14 Autumn Ballet

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 8 Miss Ghent

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8

Leg Three: 4, 14

Leg Four: 5, 6, 13, 16

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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