The path towards the WATC Derby continues this Saturday at Ascot where the eight race card is highlighted by the Listed JC Roberts Stakes (1800m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (16:19) : MPA Skills Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 2 Arrum Boy (Best Odds: $2.90) is a handy looking youngster who debuted over 1200m here a couple of Wednesday’s back where he was confidently backed to win and tried hard after sitting on speed but just tired late. Should come on from that, and there was strong market support on debut. I’ll respect that here.
Big Danger: 3 Galveston Boy (Best Odds: $4.80) was kept very safe in the market when debuting at Bunbury last Wednesday and after a nice sit near the speed, he peeled and presented at the right time but just couldn’t quite go on with it. Should come on from that experience and rates highly here.
Long Shot: 10 Shania Style (Best Odds: $21.00) is a filly that debuts for the Sean Casey stable. Well named being out of Twain and has been tuned up for her debut with two trials this prep, the latest on February 20 when running fourth. Needs to improve off trials, but as I said, this isn’t a strong race.
Race Two (17:04) : Cbus Super Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Undisclosed (Best Odds: $4.40) is a very sharp filly for the Colin Webster. Bolted up first up down the Pinjarra before failing here. Given a little break and ran over 1000m here where she ran along at a brutal speed and though walking on the line she held on. 1100m is a different pain barrier, but if ridden more conservatively, she will get it.
Big Danger: 8 Fraternize (Best Odds: $3.30) is a talented type who should comfortably measure up here. Trialled well at Bunbury prior to resuming at Pinjarra where she was given a charmed run behind the speed and once she was given clear air, she put them away quickly. Extremely hard to beat here.
Long Shot: 11 Next Generation (Best Odds: $17.00) resumed in the Magic Millions at Pinjarra and worked home with purpose before racing over 1200m here where he again got back in the run and finished off okay late in the piece behind More Aces. Back to 1100m is a query because I think he wants further. But still, a contender with a hot speed.
Race Three (17:45) : Minutolo Drafting Services Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: Not really a race I am keen on but I’ve landed with 4 Star Glitter (Best Odds: $8.00). Consistent gelding that finds it hard to win, but so does most of these engaged. He ran over 1100m here a fortnight back where he had the 1/1 sit and looked to be going well, but when the leaders sprinted, he just couldn’t match it with them late. I think 1200m is his go, he draws well and Brad Parnham is riding very well.
Big Danger: 8 Presentatie (Best Odds: $3.20) is a tough mare to trust, but she looks like she is knocking on the door to win her first race down under. Ran over 1100m here two weeks back against the mares where she got back to near last in the run and really savaged the line despite wanting to lay in when second to the well performed Conseated. Draws well and now gets Pike steering.
Long Shot: 13 Jestajingle (Best Odds: $3.00) is a handy mare that resumes for the Fred Kersley yard. Contested the two latter races of the Jungle Series during the Summer Carnival. Far from disgraced in the Jungle Mist but in the Jungle Dawn she was looking for the paddock. Two trials leading in have been quite encouraging and she does have a tidy fresh record. Market watch.
Race Four (18:20) : EBM-Insurance & Risk Management Handicap (78+) 1000m:
Back Me: 9 Marchand (Best Odds: $9.00) was backed at a price when resuming here three weeks ago and he had the suck run behind the tempo, looking ready to launch. He did, but he couldn’t withstand the finishing burst of Seeker. Senior rider goes on now, fitter, and now he has drawn out, he can get clear running earlier.
Big Danger: 11 Three Votes (Best Odds: $2.25) hasn’t raced for eight weeks since spanking his rivals at this track/distance and running sharp time for the day. Yet to be sighted since, but he is lethal when produced fresh and he has a hot speed in front of him to sit off and ambush them late. Big player here.
Long Shot: 4 Flying Time (Best Odds: $41.00) is a veteran sprinter but he raced pretty well during the Spring in the feature sprint races at the provincials, including a game third in the Hannans during the Kalgoorlie Carnival. Comes here with no trials, so fitness levels are unknown, but he draws well and is right down in the weights.
Race Five (18:55) : Master Plumbers And Gasfitters Association Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Majinika (Best Odds: $2.45) is a talented gelding who looks one of the hardest to beat here. He comes through a race here three weeks back where he had the charmed run behind the speed and tried hard to get past Corporate Larrikin but couldn’t. Confident he can this time around and is the one here.
Big Danger: 10 Illuminated (Best Odds: $7.50) is the big watch here. Classy gelding that hasn’t raced for nearly ten months. Was getting ready for the Summer Carnival but stable pulled the pin and tipped him out. Trialled well at Bunbury and gets Pike steering. Just has to overcome the tricky draw.
Long Shot: 2 Havana (Best Odds: $51.00) is a really talented horse when he is right, but which Havana will turn up remains to be unknown. Showed really good promise when with Paul Messara, but hasn’t done a great deal since joining the Gangemi stable, albeit in harder races. Trials leading in were good prior to resuming in the Pinjarra Classic where he didn’t do a great deal behind Man Booker. Draws wide, so perhaps ride with cover and see what he does late.
Race Six (19:30) : Rehau Unlimited Polymer Solutions Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: Giving 5 Prying Tom (Best Odds: $6.50) one more chance with PIke back steering. Very promising first prep, but he has really done bugger all this time around in three runs, the latest coming over the mile a tick under two weeks back at Pinjarra when a close up seventh to By Decree. Pike could be the spark to get this horse back into winning form.
Big Danger: 8 Veuve De Vega (Best Odds: $2.80) is a talented three year old taking on the older horses but has to be enormously respected here. He hasn’t raced for three weeks since contesting the Challenge Stakes (1500m) where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but was nabbed late. Form out of that has been outstanding and he maps well here from the gate.
Long Shot: 12 Captain Bonehead (Best Odds: $23.00) comes through the By Decree race that Prying Tom contested and I thought his effort in defeat was really good. Had three wide cover throughout before presenting wider and coming with a well timed run but just missed out on victory. Pike rode him two back at Narrogin, so I am sure he would have been offered the ride. That’s the negative, but in terms of the horse, he is racing very well.
Race Seven (20:05) : World Plumbing Day JC Roberts Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Most of these come through the Lex Piper and I don’t see anything turning the tables on 1 Gangbuster (Best Odds: $3.00). He was given a sweet steer just off the pace and looked in complete control of the race, and when he got clear, he got the job done. Looks ideally suited up to 1800m and looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: 6 Western Temple (Best Odds: $7.00) was unwanted in betting in the Lex Piper but despite the market drift he ran an absolute beauty sitting near the speed and fighting on strongly to run a narrow second to Gangbuster. Little query at 1800m but perhaps with cover and patience, he will go close.
Long Shot: 2 Gatting (Best Odds: $6.50) was the short priced elect in the Lex Piper but he was the major flop of the race, sitting near the tempo and dropping out to finish midfield. I think he was ridden far too close to the speed, so with a more conservative ride, as we have seen prior, he can bounce back hard here.
Race Eight (20:40) : Galvins Plumbing Supplies Handicap (66+) 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Point (Best Odds: $2.40) looks one of the better bets on the program. Is on the back up after racing over the mile here last Saturday where he got a long way back in the run but finished off his race with real purpose behind Material Man. Seven day turnaround looks ideal and gets Pike steering.
Big Danger: 3 Eleven Seconds (Best Odds: $3.40) looks the only threat. He is a tough on speed galloper who comes back to 1800m after racing over 2200m last time out where he attempted to lead all the way but just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Toppa Da Wozza. Maps well here and loves a fight. Will be in it for a long way.
Long Shot: 4 Blackwood (Best Odds: $8.80) is a talented mare for Fred Kersley who is quickly up in trip after resuming in the Pearl Classic at Pinjarra over 1400m four weeks ago where she got back in the run and couldn’t really come on behind Celebrity Dream. She has Group l form at this track/distance and on her day, she is classy. Big watch on her for sure.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Point
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 7 Majinika
VALUE: Race Four Number 9 Marchand
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 7, 10
Leg Two: 4, 5, 8, 12, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg Four: 2, 3
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