A strong card of racing has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday, and while there are no feature races, the depth is very good once again. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One: Hyland Race Colours Plate 1100m:
Back Me: Scarlet Rain (Best Odds: $2.50) debuts for Gai Waterhouse after a very slick trial win on her home track on December 15, winning by 2.5L and running sharp time compared to other trials that morning. Gate one with Tommy aboard, I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t run top two at least.
Big Danger: Northern Fire (Best Odds: $16.00) debuted at Kembla Grange three weeks back where he showed good speed to lead most of the way but was nabbed in the final few strides by Cudabeen. He will be up on speed, and as we know, at Rosehill, on speed from the 1100m start is a big leap towards victory.
Roughie: Alpha Son (Best Odds: $7.50) is on debut here for Chris Waller off the back of a lovely trial placing here back in early December behind Extreme Choice, who franked the form by bolting up in the Inglis Nursery. Trained on the track, in the right stable and draws a lovely gate for Blake Shinn.
Race Two: Schweppes Sprint (68) 1100m:
Back Me: Unblemished Mark (Best Odds: $8.50) resumed over 1100m at Canterbury where he finished off his race quite nicely when third to Secret Lies, beaten a length. Draws a decent gate here and this race doesn’t appear to be overly strong. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Kangarilla Joy (Best Odds: $3.20) is an interesting runner here. Team Snowden filly who resumes after two runs in the Winter, which started off with a debut win at Warwick Farm before running behind Speak Fondly in the Silver Shadow. Recent trial win here was very sharp and stable is low flying at the moment.
Roughie: Sargent Doakes (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed in that Secret Lies race mentioned above, and he seemingly had his chance I thought, but the market flucs told the story, with his price doubling. Thompson back on now, and as I said, this isn’t a strong race. Watch market moves with this galloper.
Race Three: More Than Ready @ Vinery Handicap (76) 1400m:
Back Me: Make A Mark (Best Odds: $3.60) resumed over 1350m here where he attempted to lead all the way and stuck on quite gamely when third to impressive winner Open Book. Should take good improvement from that and shapes up to be one of the hardest to beat here.
Big Danger: Wudang Mountain (Best Odds: $3.60) closed off alright late at Randwick two back behind Bachman before running second in the Open Book race where he closed off well but was no match for the winner. Gate one with McDonald on is a good recipe for success.
Roughie: Raijinz (Best Odds: $8.50) ran fourth in that race mentioned above, and he was quite good himself considering he sat outside Make A Mark throughout. It’s been a little while since he has greeted the judge, but he isn’t far away and his three runs this time in have been excellent.
Race Four: TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1300m:
Back Me: Really keen on the Taree raider here, Another Valley (Best Odds: $6.00), who has been very impressive in both runs this time in, both resulting in wins on her home track, in particular the second win over 1250m. It won’t be easy for a three year old filly to beat the older horses here, but I’ve been quite impressed by what she has done so far this preparation.
Big Danger: Le Bella Rouge (Best Odds: $4.60) ran over 1400m at Goulburn last time out when sitting on speed and bolting clear for a dominant win, with the time being pretty good for the meeting. Draws a lovely gate with Jason Collett remaining on and she looks ready to tackle city grade now.
Roughie: Admission (Best Odds: $6.50) started bolters odds when racing in a Highway race here two weeks back but he didn’t know what price he was and he ran a beauty behind Ocean Grand in running third. Stable has always had good success in these races, and third up now, this horse should just about be at peak fitness.
Race Five: Cellarbrations Handicap (68) 1350m:
Back Me: Keen here on Asinara (Best Odds: $4.80) for Godolphin. This well bred filly debuted over 1400m at Kembla Grange on December 6 and won with a bit of class and authority and the time compared well with the older horses on the same program. Stable rider on from a good gate, and the stable have scratched the horse a couple of times looking for the right race. They’ve done that here.
Big Danger: Labdien (Best Odds: $10.00) ran over 1300m at Warwick Farm last start and was given a beaut steer from Rory Hutchings by hugging the rail and finishing best for a top win. Hardest test to date here, but she has enormous upside and she’ll be strong late.
Roughie: I’m Not Sure (Best Odds: $21.00) got the job done to break the maiden first up at Beaumont-Newcastle before going to Canterbury where he tried but was no match for impressive winner Cosmopol. He should be ready now third up from a break and his lone run at this track resulted in a second to Giulietta, a subsequent Stakes performer.
Race Six: Rydges Parramatta Handicap (72) 1300m:
Back Me: Miss Royale (Best Odds: $2.50) was very impressive in winning first up at Warwick Farm, coming home from near last and was one of the widest runners on the turn. That was her maiden win in a benchmark race, and she did it very easily. I think she wins this here and goes on to bigger and better things.
Big Danger: Selita (Best Odds: $3.00) led all the way for a gritty win two back at Kembla Grange before winning with a bit more authority last time out over 1250m at Canterbury, beating home a similar class field to what she faces here. Stable is in ripping form at the moment and mares that are in form, usually stay in form.
Roughie: A return to a bigger track could help Tears In Heaven (Best Odds: $67.00), who has been pretty plain in three runs back from a break, the latest coming on December 9 at Warwick Farm behind Never Back Down, who has run well since. On her best form, she’d run very well here, and her trial before the start of the prep was sharp.
Race Seven: TAB More Than Just Winning Handicap (85) 1900m:
Back Me: Caped Crusader (Best Odds: $2.50) has won his past two starts in very impressive fashion, both on his home track at Randwick over the mile in all the way fashion. He looks as though he will eat up the extra 300m, he looks the lone leader and he will take some running down.
Big Danger: Magical Stance (Best Odds: $5.50) tried very hard last time out over the Randwick mile when a close up second to Caped Crusader, beaten about a neck. He has a really good record at this track, and at the track/distance, and being only third up here, he should go very close.
Roughie: Thermogenic (Best Odds: $6.00) ran over this track/distance last time out and tried very hard when a close up sixth to Kontiki Dane, beaten just under a length in what was a real bunched finish, which is usually a bad sign, but this mare has plenty of upside left and she looks as though she’ll get conditions to suit.
Race Eight: McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (89) 1400m:
Back Me: I’ve said for a few months that Start Wondering (Best Odds: $2.10) is a potential Group l winner, and the first up win here a fortnight back certainly didn’t put a dampener on my prediction. He gave 4kg and a head start on the runner up yet just charged home and just wanted to win, which is always a good sign. Hardest test to date here since coming to Australia, but I am very confident he can get the job done.
Big Danger: Moral Victory (Best Odds: $7.00) comes through the Villiers (1600m) where he gave his backers a tremendous sight at odds, and nearly led all the way but just felt the pinch over the final 50m and had to settle for a two length fourth. Lead looks his here once again, and he should take some holding out.
Roughie: Keep an eye on Lunar Rise (Best Odds: $13.00) to see what he does. He trialled really well prior to resuming in the Razor Sharp (1200m) where he wasn’t beaten far behind Cradle Me, who franked the form on Boxing Day. He does run well here and has a pretty solid record at 1400m.
Race Nine: Tab.com.au Sprint (78) 1200m:
Back Me: Putting Richard The First (Best Odds: $26.00) on top. He is a talented horse who resumes for Les Bridge off the back of a pleasing trial effort at Randwick six weeks back where he looked excellent in the way he went about things. Normally needs the run under the belt, but I am tipping he could well run a cheeky race fresh at good odds.
Big Danger: Paceman (Best Odds: $3.40) was given a lovely front running steer from Tim Clark last time out but he just couldn’t hold out Start Wondering, who is the best bet for me this weekend. That form reads so well for this, and despite the rise in weight, he should go very close.
Roughie: Huka Eagle (Best Odds: $8.50) trialled like a star before resuming over 1100m here five weeks back where the run behind Fiftyshadesofgrey was inconclusive. Got too far back and wasn’t knocked about the final 50m, but there was market support, which I respect. On his best form, he’d spank these, so again, watch the market and see if he has admirers.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 8 Start Wondering
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Heavens Above
VALUE: Race Two Number 3 Sargent Doakes
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4
Leg Two: 8
Leg Three: 8
Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 18
$50 Investment= 714.28% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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