Eight races wll be run and won at Morphettville this Saturday, where the feature event is the City Of Marion Stakes (1200m) attracting a quality field. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:38) : Adelaide Galvanising Handicap (70) 1511m:
Back Me: 4 Northern Lass (Bet Now: $4.40) took an age to wind up when racing over 1400m on the Parks track three weeks back and she did, but just failed in picking up Something More, a filly that I am confident she can go one better here given she will be better suited up in trip and back on the bigger track, allowing her to wind up better. One of the better bets on the card.
Big Danger: 2 Enki (Bet Now: $3.30) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and if you did back him, I apologise for bringing up the pain again, because to be frank, he should have bolted in but unfortunately for his supporters and rider Jamie Kah, the horse just couldn’t get a crack at them until it was all over. He only needs some form of good luck here to be right in the finish and look the winner at some stage.
Long Shot: 3 Billet Doux (Bet Now: $7.50) ran in a 1400m maiden on the Parks track three weeks ago where he was crunched in betting and it was left to Jamie Kah to produce such a really good steer on the son of Al Maher to get the job done. Form out of it has been okay and he does seem a horse who will be better suited on the bigger track. Definite winning chance.
Race Two (13:43) : Schweppes Handicap (82) 2500m:
Back Me: 4 Nisos (Bet Now: $6.00) on top for me. He comes back to SA after racing a touch out of form in recent times back home in Melbourne, the latest result being a last over 2040m at the Valley behind the above average Boom Time. Got a really good record at 2400m+ and he does strike a very, very winnable race. Draws to get the run of the race, I am keen on his prospects.
Big Danger: 1 Survived (Bet Now: $3.80) started bolters odds in that Boom Time race and to his credit, I thought he stuck on really well in defeat after leading and copping pressure on speed. The lead looks his for the taking here and Thornton rides the horse better than anyone, and he jumps back on, so that’s a big tick for me here. Knockout chance at odds.
Long Shot: 3 Tunes (Bet Now: $9.00) is getting on in years but he still maintains a reasonable amount of zest for racing. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he sat on speed and though off the bit on the turn, he kept finding under Lindop and beat them all off bar the swooper, Duquessa. Should get a lovely run nearer the tempo here and at $9, he represents value.
Race Three (14:18) : UBET Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Vivaldi’s Quest (Bet Now: $3.40) looked pretty smart in sitting on speed and dashing clear on debut at Murray Bridge before backing up eight days later over 1050m here and he produced a brilliant final 200m to burst through late and nab stablemate Gold Denari right on the peg. Looks to be heading in the right direction and I think he can make it three from three.
Big Danger: 4 Time Out (Bet Now: $7.50) resumed behind Vivaldi’s Quest here two weeks ago and it was just a run to my eye. It was okay, but nothing to jump up and down over. What I will say is that he does have a poor fresh record and to the eye he looked to have a belly on him, so he is the horse who will significantly improve here and he did run very well second up last time in.
Long Shot: 7 Saint Stef (Bet Now: $19.00) was good on debut at Gawler behind Hidden Fortune before racing there again where young Huxtable gave the filly a hard run, three deep no cover, but she fought on very strongly and gripped on to win. It’ll be interesting to see how she bounces off that gutbuster and whether she reacts to it or sooks up.
Race Four (14:53) : MAC STOP DRUG DRIVING Handicap (70) 1050m:
Back Me: He hasn’t won for ages, but I think the time has come for 3 I Am The General (Bet Now: $5.00) to salute. He has put together five second placings in a row, the latest coming over 1000m on the Parks track last Saturday where he kicked up hard to lead and for the most part of the straight, he looked the winner, but Ready Sunshine bloused him right on the line. Don’t think he’ll cop as much pressure and Zac Spain is one of the best front running riders in SA.
Big Danger: 2 Artie Fred (Bet Now: $7.50) is the very interesting runner here. Talented four year old that resumes for the Paul Rocke after really coming of age during the early part of the Spring, highlighted by two very impressive wins in Adelaide, the second of those seeing him savage the line to beat Mail It In and Mossbeat, both of which have been subsequent winners. No trials, but first up on the road…big market watch.
Long Shot: 6 Regal Spur (Bet Now: $16.00) resumed over 1000m on the Parks track three weeks back and did a really good job in defeat I thought behind Itz Invincible after sitting back in the ruck in a race dominated by the leader and eventual winner. Has a tidy second up record and does have some solid stats on the Parks track. Definite chance if the speed is on.
Race Five (15:33) : Lorna Wanstall Handicap (82) 2014m:
Back Me: 7 Beluga Blue (Bet Now: $2.25) strung together two very sharp wins on the Parks track over 1400m before racing over the mile at Moonee Valley where she sat wide no cover for the trip but to her credit she stuck on quite well to run fifth to Hell Or Highwater. 2000m back home are two big ticks and she has the form on the board.
Big Danger: 8 Bullitt County (Bet Now: $9.50) ran for four weeks in a row and despite that, he seems to be thriving on the hard racing. He ran over 2500m here a fortnight back and whacked away okay never the inside despite getting held up a touch to run third to Duquessa. He will take some beating with a clear run.
Long Shot: 6 Majestic Moment (Bet Now: $26.00) looked in need of the runs earlier this prep before racing in the Clare Cup last time out where Paul Gatt gave him an absolute pearler, railing hard and finishing off strongly to get the job done. He still has a stack of upside left and races well here.
Race Six (16:08) : Full Hammer Handicap (90) 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Magic Boy (Bet Now: $5.00) on top for me in a really good event, perhaps the best on the card. He performed very well in two runs during the Melbourne Spring behind quality animals before coming back home here where he ran second to Mail It In two back and then produced the same result over this track/distance a fortnight back behind the above average Brown Ben. No Brown Ben here, and I think he finds his race to win.
Big Danger: 9 Mail It In (Bet Now: $3.60) put together two strong wins, including one over Magic Boy, before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago and sticking to his task really well I thought in defeat when third to Brown Ben and Magic Boy. Been up for a while and the signs are just starting to show that perhaps he is racing like a tired horse, but the form he is in just cannot be ignored here.
Long Shot: 4 Profit Share (Bet Now: $13.00) is a horse that is near impossible to trust, but we know on his day he is a very capable animal. He hasn’t set the world on fire recently in the Country Cups, but he has run well here previously, drops a bit in depth and we know the record Darren Weir has when he sends horses to Adelaide.
Race Seven (16:48) : City Of Marion Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Lord Aspen (Bet Now: $3.70) is a high class animal who looks the one to beat here after a couple of really impressive wins, starting off on the Parks track over 1300m before stepping up to 1400m seven days later on Stakes Day at Flemington and aided by a peach from Dunn, the five year old finished best and drew clear late. Bit of a drop in depth and class here I think, and we know how lethal he is at 1200m, so the drop back to that is no issue.
Big Danger: 3 Casino Wizard (Bet Now: $5.50) is one horse who will love the drop in weight given he has carried 58kg+ at his past four starts and yet despite that, he has run some cracking races, including last start when narrowly beaten by Lord De Capio. Fast run 1200m will be right up his alley, and if the breaks go his way, he can certainly take this out.
Long Shot: 8 Mio Dio (Bet Now: $7.00) has been the real find of the Spring in SA. He was just known as a mudlark but as we have seen time and time again, Will Clarken just improves these tried horses and he has got this bloke in career best form. He has won his past three, the latest coming over 1250m on the Parks track when savaging the peg to nail Counter Spin on the line. This is a big step up, but he’s hard fit, in winning form and remains down in the weights. Ticks alot of boxes for me.
Race Eight (17:28) : I Will Find You Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Big Effort (Bet Now: $3.60) looked to trial really well behind Itz Invincible in early October before being kept on ice and resuming over 1050m here two weeks ago where there was market support to suggest he’d run well fresh and that was indeed the case, sitting off speed before pouncing at the top of the straight and putting them away comfortably. If he has upside from that, he should just about take care of them here.
Big Danger: 2 Municipality (Bet Now: $4.80) has been given a month freshen up since racing over 1550m on the Parks track where he had a charmed run near the tempo and fought on strongly when a game third to Mail It In, a horse who has since gone onto to run third behind arguably the form horse in SA at the moment, Brown Ben. That reads well for this and keep in mind he did beat Brown Ben first up over 1200m. Tick.
Long Shot: 13 Lexgetreddy (Bet Now: $13.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over 1250m on the Parks track last Saturday where Cahill gave the mare a 12/10 steer, perched up near the speed before angling clear at the top of the straight and she showed a lovely turn of foot to get the job done. Star prior was behind Big Effort and she was game there. Definite chance.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Lord Aspen
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 I Am The General
VALUE: Race Two Number 4 Nisos
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 6, 7, 8
Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9, 12
Leg Three: 1, 3, 8
Leg Four: 2, 6, 9, 13
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