10/12/2016 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

Racing returns to Flemington for the first time since Cup Week this Saturday with a strong nine event program. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Race One (13:00) : Lanec Services Handicap (78) 1000m:

Back Me: 1 Lyuba (Bet Now: $5.00) for me here. She resumed against the older mares at the Valley a fortnight back and despite pulling hard in the 1/1, once Ben Allen gave her clear air on the turn, she lengthened beautifully and then showed a bit of ticker in the straight to fend off Chiavari. I dare say she has drawn the right part of the track, she’ll get clear room and her turn of foot will come to the fore.
Big Danger: 2 Lady Esprit (Bet Now: $5.00) ran over this distance under the lights of the Valley on November 11 where she had a nice sit just off the tempo and chased hard all the way but had to settle for a close up second to Estaminet. Her efforts at Flemington read better than the form line would suggest and if you look back, she has run well behind Secret Agenda and Ocean Embers.
Long Shot: 7 Blithe Belle (Bet Now: $17.00) is a talented mare that is first up here for the Ellerton/Zahra stable. She ended her Autumn/Winter prep with a strong effort to win over 1400m at Caulfield, sitting back and charging home to get the job done. Jump outs have been encouraging and she does sprint well fresh, plus she is resuming on her home track. If she can get cover and a drag up, she’ll be a threat.

Race Two (13:35) : Cafe Adamo Handicap (70) 1600m:

Back Me: 2 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $1.60) to turn the tables on Dollar For Dollar. He was hard in the market when they clashed on Ballarat Cup Day and it was just the slow tempo that probably got him the win, with the first 1000m in around 62 seconds, which is an absolute crawl. Galaxy Raider sat a few lengths off that, and under the circumstances, the run was very good. The win prior at Sale was outstanding which was why he was $2.30 at Ballarat. Even track here, hopefully, and I think he’ll be too good.
Big Danger: 5 On Wings (Bet Now: $8.50) had no right to win when resuming at Ballarat given he was back in the ruck and they absolutely crawled in front, but he rounded them up with style over the final 200m and drew clear late. Admittedly, he beat nothing, but the tempo against him is a good counter argument. He runs well second up and is suited up in trip.
Long Shot: 8 First Amendment (Bet Now: $21.00) is the one on the up. Team Freedman trained three year old that ran over the Ballarat mile last time out in a maiden and though he didn’t beat much, he absolutely bolted in and won by a space. Time was okay with the benchmark horses that afternoon, and now he races on his home track at the mile, which just looks ideal.

Race Three (14:10) : Hollywood Nails Handicap (84) 1700m:

Back Me: I think there is value in the shape of 1 Khutulun (Bet Now: $21.00). Outclassed and in need of the run fresh behind Artistry on Cup Day here before going to Ballarat Cup Day where she got back in the ruck and as we know, it was impossible to make significant ground. Back to her own sex now, fitter and gets out to a more suitable trip against a bunch of mares who are limited. $19 is a great price.
Big Danger: 9 Firebird Flyer (Bet Now: $6.50) comes to Melbourne after resuming at Rosehill in a handy race where she ran a ripping race to run third to Girl Sunday in a leader dominated affair. Stable have great success when switching states and this mare just has a stack of upside. Major threat.
Long Shot: 10 Loveitt (Bet Now: $17.00) could be an improver here at odds. She sat wide no cover last time out over 1800m at Sandown and to her credit, she stuck on quite strongly late in the piece when third to Honey Cara. She hadn’t really set the world on fire prior but now that she has found some form, she can go on with it.

Race Four (14:45) : Pienary Group Handicap (84) 1200m:

Back Me: He isn’t the most reliable horse to follow with confidence, but I will lean with 9 Bassett (Bet Now: $6.00). This former Group l performer resumed on Kilmore Cup Day over 1200m and to the eye, I thought his chance but was nabbed right on the peg by Airalign. Zero from three second up but his two efforts at Flemington have been behind Mahuta and Super Cash. Ticks alot of boxes for me.
Big Danger: 6 Armada (Bet Now: $10.00) resumed in that race above on Kilmore Cup Day won by Airalign and his effort was very good. At the top of the straight he loomed as if he was going to be the winner but his condition just gave way late and had to settle for fourth. How about his form at Flemington…fourth in the Coolmore at this track/distance to Brazen Beau and another fourth to high class SA galloper Lord Aspen. That reads well.
Long Shot: 3 Spreadeagled (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented miler that resumes for Robert Smerdon. He had a pretty solid Autumn/Winter but you could tell that by the end he was racing liked a tired horse and in search of a break. Jump outs have been encouraging to my eye, he is a first up winner and the speed engaged here should suit his get back/run on pattern.

Race Five (15:25) : Vaughan Constructions Handicap (78) 2500m:

Back Me: 2 Charlevoix (Bet Now: $1.70) clearly on top for me here. He ran over 2300m on Ballarat Cup Day where he was backed as if unbeatable and chased hard the entire straight but just missed out on picking up Shikarpour in a deceptive finish. He is really effective at 2400m+, and being only third up here, he has fresh legs and enormous upside. The one to beat and one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: The race is depleted by scratchings, so 3 Goathland (Bet Now: $3.70) has to be rated as the main threat. He ran over 2000m last Saturday at Pakenham and tried very hard all the way but was simply no match for impressive winner Gallic Chieftain. Rare to see Lloyd Williams runners on the seven day turnaround, but when they do, they usually perform very well. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 11 Verreaux (Bet Now: $61.00) was touted as a Derby horse a couple of seasons back when trained by Mark Kavanagh and owned by China Horse Club. Those days are long gone and he is now with Frank Conlan, and the now five year old broke through last start in a very thin 2400m maiden at Bendigo, but he toughed it out strongly and spanked them in the end. No issue with the trip and with the race thinned out now, he is a place chance.

Race Six (16:00) : Dorevitch Pathology Charity Plate (70) 1200m:

Back Me: 14 Bella Ava (Bet Now: $15.00) was backed as if unbeatable when resuming at Wangaratta and aided by a lovely steer from Regan Bayliss, she absolutely bolted up and won by a space, and is another that ran fast time in comparison to other races over the same trip for the meeting. She looked to trial really well prior and the fresh effort confirms she has come back in super order. She has a near identical lead up to stablemate Snitzson, who came out and bolted in at Pakenham.
Big Danger: 3 Khaki (Bet Now: $5.50) comes to the Flemington stable of John O’Shea and Godolphin after resuming at Kembla Grange four weeks back in a maiden where he was backed as if unbeatable and ran accordingly, bolting up to win by a space, with the time being quicker than the older horses over the same distance that afternoon. The worry is that, to date, there have been no winners to come out of that maiden from several subsequent runs. But, the eye doesn’t lie, nor does the clock.
Long Shot: 7 Southern Spur (Bet Now: $15.00) took on a small field at Moe on debut last Tuesday and though the field didn’t look strong depth wise, he showed a nice turn of foot from back in the ruck to round up the leader, who produced a lovely turn of foot and kicked well herself but Southern Spur was much too good for his rivals. Stable always fires this time of year so he has to be respected.

Race Seven (16:40) : Western Health First Response Pharmacy Cup 1400m:

Back Me: 8 Snoopy (Bet Now: $2.40) was ridden a bit too cute I think when third to Grunderzeit two back at Canterbury before racing over 1400m at Rosehill a fortnight back where he was ridden aggressively by Tommy, and somewhat ugly, but the blinkers seemed to sharpen him right up and he kicked on strongly to get the job done. If ridden that way again, he will get a good run in transit again and take some beating.
Big Danger: 4 Rough Justice (Bet Now: $8.00) is on the seven day turnaround after racing in the Gold Bullion at Pakenham last Saturday where he did a bit of work to sit on the speed and was left a sitting shot for Grande Rosso, who had the suck run behind and pounced, but the effort of Rough Justice was still commendable. Good record on his home track and he does map somewhat better here.
Long Shot: 10 Majestic Duke (Bet Now: $31.00) could be one to include here at odds. He comes through the brutally run Kilmore Cup where he was probably the worst victim of that tempo because he drew wide and pressed hard to lead, and he was pretty much gone before the turn. Won’t be as much pressure here I suspect here and he has run some strong races at Flemington previously, the latest being a 5th to Ulmann.

Race Eight (17:20) : Urban Maintenance Systems Handicap (84) 1600m:

Back Me: Prepared to take the gamble with 6 Lord Lumberjack (Bet Now: $11.00). Former French galloper now with Busuttin/Young and comes here with some handy efforts from when he raced in France. Not sure how strong the form is but his two wins did see him win by eight lengths and five lengths respectively. Three trials leading in, so he should just about be ready fitness wise first up and it’ll be interesting to see what the market does with him.
Big Danger: 3 Black Sheep (Bet Now: $4.40) looked one of the bets of the day when racing over the mile at the Valley a fortnight back and aided by a 12/10 from Brad Rawiller, that is exactly how it turned out and to be fair, he was quite impressive in winning. Not sure how good he goes away from the Valley but given teh vein of form this bloke is in currently, it’s hard to ignore him and he has to be rated highly.
Long Shot: 4 Encosta Line (Bet Now: $6.00) ran over 2040m at the Valley two weeks back and it was a pretty good run in defeat I thought behind an above average type in Boom Time. He did get held up a touch on the home turn but whether it made a difference to his winning chances, I highly doubt it. Back to the mile will really suit, he’s trained here, hard fit and in form.

Race Nine (17:55) : Western Health Foundation Handicap (78) 1400m:

Back Me: 6 Brown Ben (Bet Now: $4.20) for me here and with some confidence. The stable were tempted to run him at the Valley a fortnight back, but they scratched and instead ran on the course proper at Morphettville where he took on some handy types and despite settling last in a slowly run race, he was just far too good for his rivals and added a third straight picket to his formline. Flemington 1400m looks perfect and now is the right time to tackle the big smoke.
Big Danger: 15 Sir Sagamore (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented gelding who got a much needed confidence boost for his Summer prep when scoring a dominant win at Pakenham fresh under the lights. He was ridden a treat by jamie Mott that night and did find the best ground out wide on the outside rail. He has really good formlines when racing here and he has a stack of upside.
Long Shot: 17 Chamois Road (Bet Now: $11.00) is a horse who has been pretty good in recent times for Patrick Payne. I thought his effort in defeat a tick over two weeks back on Wodonga Cup Day was huge given he had to cop severe heat on speed and beat the field off bar the horse who had the suck run behind him, who was heavily backed and won. I think if he can get a cheap fraction here, he’ll go very close.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 6 Brown Ben

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Lyuba

VALUE: Race Three Number 1 Khutulun

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7, 12, 14

Leg Two: 3, 4, 8, 10, 12, 14

Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 8

Leg Four: 6, 15

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.