10/2/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

The Valley will conduct an eight event meeting under the lights this Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Think it is a race in two. Just leaning the way of 11 Stateswoman (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She has been pretty good in two career outings for Team Kav, both times placing and each race has been won by promising animals, so the form around her does read strong for this race, she should lob into a lovely spot from the gate and gets B Shinn so she has a bit going for her to suggest her maiden win will come here.

1 Devoted Poet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the other key winning chance. UK import that made his Australian debut over 1300m at Sandown where he was very one paced when asked for the effort by Mick Dee and just whacked away, but stayed on and was sound in defeat to finish third. I reckon he might want one more, but overall, this is a thin race, and he’s got more upside than most.

2 Skinny Dip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but he hasn’t been too far away for the most part. On speed last time over the Pakenham mile and battled away well enough in defeat when third to Crimson Light. That was his first run in a few weeks and he does have Attrition form, which can clearly stand up here. Just think the other two have more progression.

Happy to be with 1 Traduce (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who has been pretty good in a few runs for Michael Moroney. He ran a few weeks ago at Sandown where he was back near last in the run and was never a threat but liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind So Unusual. Think dropping back to this kind of race, Olly sticking, he’s the one to beat.

6 Accountability (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Aaron Purcell. Far from disgraced two back at this track/distance before going to the 2400m at Warrnambool where he got back in the run and made up headway without threatening behind Zoom, who does look a progressive import. This is a very, very thin 70 race, so he only has to hold his form to prove to be a leading contender.

2 Toyetic (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I would assume, has eyes on jumping given he is now with Declan Maher after formerly being with Aaron Bain. First run for the new stable came over 2500m here last Friday night and he wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Vadaboy in a race dominated by those on speed. Like him up to 3000m and with upside, in a staying camp, he can run a much improved race.

The big jockey upgrade is the reason I am keen on 5 Hard Squeeze (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This mare has been really good in four runs this time in, but she hasn’t had a decent rider on. Carleen, Kiran Quilty, Carleen, Carleen…now gets Blake Shinn. Close up without much luck behind Fighting Arrow here last time, she should get a sweet run from the gate and is one with upside whereas some of these are closer to the end of the prep than the beginning.

The market loves 7 Liberated Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00), and while she does have talent and ability, she has been a let down for punters every start this prep. That said, she was brave in defeat in the Fighting Arrow race mentioned above after sitting wide no cover for the trip, which was this trip she races here. Another tricky gate to overcome, is there petrol left in the tank…she could blow these away, but at the price, I’d just be watching. I’d want much better than $2.50.

4 Pankhurst (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t done much wrong this time in for Matty Williams. Far from disgraced two back behind Chandon Burj before going back to 64 on the home deck at Warrnambool where she was ridden with confidence and drew clear late to win well. Yet to be tested at this trip but is racing like it will suit, she gets M Zahra and a soft gate to do no work.

I’ll take a chance with 2 Aspen Colorado (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Lindsey Smith. He hasn’t raced since September 3 at Morphettville when backed with confidence but he just spotted them way too much head start and was never a factor behind Unlaced. He can sprint well fresh, has jumped out well leading in and first up at 1500m with D Oliver tells me there is intent.

12 Takara (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a pretty consistent mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that should be around the mark. Attempted to lead throughout at Pakenham last time and gave a strong kick but just couldn’t quite finish it off, nabbed near the peg by Jenniferwish. Drawn wide, but think she will slide forward and with hard race fitness under the belt, she commands respect.

13 Alphaville (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here as a last start winner and commands respect. Excellent effort two back at Geelong before proving that was no fluke at Mornington last time in a thin 58 where he gave them a start and a beating, spanking his rivals and got better as the race went on. More depth here and drawn tricky, but that win was dominant and is the hard fit/in form horse.

Happy to have a peanut each way on 9 Abaddon (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Dean Krongold. He can be a bit hit and miss at times but a fast run 955m looks ideal for a kick off point, he ran well last time behind a smart one, Stripped Black, and has jumped out really well leading in. Maps to stalk the hot speed and with luck from the inside gate in getting clear, he’ll be strong late.

3 Sparring (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back. Two back he was an all the way winner over 1000m here before going to Randwick for a Highway where he was a flop after getting three wide cover under J Mac. I think he’s a short course only horse so 955m here is ideal, Blinkers on and J Kah on, he rates as one of the hardest to beat in a race that is a tad on the thin side.

4 Titans (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for exotics given he should get run of the race from gate one. Thought he was brave in defeat at Hanging Rock on Australia Day when four wide no cover for the trip and stuck on gamely in defeat when fourth to Frostick. He is a track/distance winner and with the 3kg claim, he has enough in his corner to suggest a win wouldn’t shock at all.

6 Jennilala (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained filly that resumes. She had two runs in the Spring to start her career, winning on debut at this track/distance before going to the Twilight Glow when far from disgraced after sitting wide for the trip. Couple of jumpouts to get ready, winning the latest last week, and moved well to my eye. Market will tell you if she’s ready to go.

9 Adament (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of Jennilala that has the hard fitness under the belt and gets J Kah steering. She ran over this trip at Pakenham last time where she got a mile out of her ground but loved the way she found the line late in the piece when second to Tick Tock Boom. Gets a big jockey upgrade and can settle much closer in the run. Hard to beat.

7 Amati (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Sebring resuming for Chris Waller. She ran okay at Stakes level on a couple of occasions during the Spring, and like Jennilala, ended her prep in the Twilight Glow when back and making up minor headway. Has sprinted well fresh previously and did win a recent jumpout in okay style. Might need the run, but has a touch of quality.

13 Eponymous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy three year old for Chris Waller that resumes and returns to racing as a gelding. He contested some pretty strong races in the Spring, notably a good effort in the Gothic on Caulfield Cup Day. Been gelded, has jumped out well leading in and despite a wide gate, he could just be better than these. Market will be the guide as to whether this is a prep run or he’s ready to go.

9 Harbin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a pretty consistent animal for Lindsey Smith that will land near the speed and prove hard to run down. Ran over this track/distance just under three weeks ago where he was on speed throughout and looked the winner when Stockdale asked for the effort but he couldn’t quite finish it off when second to The Hass. Think there is more depth here but hard to knock him given how good he’s been this prep.

12 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) loves racing at The Valley and comes here in winning form so I think he has to be respected. That win came over 1100m at Geelong, getting the splits at the right time and in a driving go, was able to finish best and win well. He’ll likely be giving these a start but should they overdo it in front, he’ll be one of the strongest at the end.

5 Vientiane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me each way in the get out. James Cummings trained mare that is sneaky flying. Far from disgraced two back in a hot race at Randwick on Boxing Day, which has produced four winners. She then went here and didn’t have much luck late when trying to build the revs behind The Hass. Drawn to settle much closer in the run and should be strong at the end.

2 Bella Sorrelina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong this time in for the Maher/Eustace camp. Put together a couple of sharp wins to start the prep at Kyneton and Cranbourne respectively before going here when back and making up solid headway behind Tillotson, who was plain last Friday night here, so jury is somewhat out on the form, but she gets in very well after the claim and hopefully rolls forward.

7 Just A Theory (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can measure up. Mitch Freedman trained mare that comes to town off the back of a dominant win at Hamilton, leading throughout and while that was the spot to be for the meeting, she still gapped them and was impressive. Should lob into a lovely spot from the gate and a win wouldn’t shock at all given how even the race is on paper.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Hard Squeeze

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 11 Stateswoman

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Vientiane

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 4, 9, 12, 13

Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 9

Leg Three: 3, 8, 9, 12, 13

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 7

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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